Revised, updated May 17-June 1, 2020, and retitled from an earlier posting.
The problem with loosening rules in the general community is that others in their household can bring home COVID 19 to them. While we are not New York City, we can learn something from them.. 66% of those COVID-19 recently hospitalized patients in NYC were observing stay at home rules, but they had others in their homes who were working or running errands outside and brought the virus home. For that reason what happens in the general community does increase the threat to Seniors. Open for business also means open for more cases of COVID 19 in the general population.https://www.wired.com/story/why-has-covid-19-hit-seniors-so-hard/ On June 1, Gov. Polis said that his science advisors fear this second wave throughout the state because fewer are observing the safer at home rules. .Grand County's proximity to Denver in the summer recreation season will be felt. The thousands in Denver protesting police brutality chanting and side by side marching are also at risk and will contribute to the feared spike. None the less, while the stay at home rule for seniors has continued, Gov. Polis did loosen the rules to allow them to recreate outside. He continued the safer at home rules for another 30 days. The 2500 seniors who live in Grand County have been relatively safe until now. However, they are now even more at risk as tourists and visitors return. Until late May, and in the preceding two months, the county had only five cases. Within a couple of weeks of time, the number of total cases tripled since COVID 19 was confirmed in Grand County., The spike in the county occurred about two weeks after the influx of masks and social distance shunning, group gathering tourists increased in mid-May.. Political and personal bravado and thumbing noses at masks and social distancing in the face of COVID is a danger to their own health and particularly to seniors. There were also a few locals who did not respect the safer at home state rules. No deaths of those in the county have been reported.
Two weeks after a large number of masks and social distance shunning visitors on Memorial Day weekend, conditions may become even more dangerous for seniors. Experts believe the virus goes somewhat dormant in summer though experts also think it will come back in the fall. Predictions are not a sure thing since even the experts are basing this projection on the behavior of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic and there is no guarantee this new virus will act in the same way.. Some prior viruses have mutated and lost their ability to cause extreme results. Scientists do know that the COVID 19 virus does not do well in moist heat and high UV rays and loves cool and dry weather. Grand County is cooler and drier than many other places in America, but Colorado high country does have some of the higher UV levels, too., which could be offsetting factors. Seniors like me are still advised to adhere to State recommended modified stay at home rules for those over 65. I will be monitoring the local situation carefully before venturing out under "safer at home" rules. Those who will get my family's and my business will be restaurants and retail stores that demonstrate they are safe by adhering to the rules.
.
(removed to its separate posting 6 13 2020)
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-06-10/trump-coronavirus-protests-senior-voters-arizona
Trump made a devil's bargain and seniors noticed they drew the short stick. His callous attitudes toward seniors has taken a toll. . So what if the infection death rate increases. for seniors The administration looks at it as a tradeoff; a balancing act. However, there has been an unanticipated political price to pay for it.The political backlash is already being felt as Trump's polls show seniors' support of Trump had swung to Biden in a short time as the number of dead from COVID-19 rose to over 100,000 by the end of May, and was projected to be 134,000 by August 1.. Seniors have been the most predictable voters and Trump-supporting demographic until late April, but no longer., especially in swing states Trump needs to win, per https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-05-29/older-voters-support-joe-biden-over-trump-amid-coronavirus-pandemic This is no minor loss for Trump. Seniors make up one-quarter of voters and the most reliable voters who turn out to vote. In 2016, Trump carried seniors by 10 points It is now reversed. Morning Consult tracking poll April 20, "By a nearly 6-to-1 margin, people 65 years old and older say it’s more important for the government to address the spread of coronavirus than it is to focus on the economy. "
Even in spite of senior support tanking, Trump beat the drum for the nation to open for business, ready or not, as he tried to bury the CDC handbook on how to do it safely. (It was finally released it this past week with administration pleasing revisions) The cost of increased deaths is worth reviving the economy is his implied message. He doubled down May 21 when he made it clear that if there is a return of the virus in the fall, he will not close down the country (though he does not have the power to require states to comply). May 22, again he ruled all houses of worship re-open, though he likewise does not have the power to force states to comply. In both cases, he is doing nothing but harming seniors, the most frequent churchgoers, and the most vulnerable under a live and let die "edict". He does not care about seniors' health yet he hopes to get their vote.
******************************************************************
End of blog column. Below, more discussion and links to sources and data.
I have noticed with some of the feedback from those following Trump media vilification of Dr. Fauci. He has become the voodoo doll of those who object to any scientific report that contradicts Donald Trump's tweets and pronouncements. It is a pervasive view among the right ideologues that scientists are a conspiracy to hurt their hero president and business interests or attack their preconceived self-centered, self-interested, ideological notions. Dr. Fauci's views are the same as nearly every bonafide scientific fact-based reviewers in the world, not just the ones in the USA.. Science deniers do so at their own peril when they act in defiance of science by not taking recommended precautions or taking warnings seriously if they do not come from conservative political sources. They also endanger those who accept science as factual by contributing to the exposure and spread of the disease, especially seniors.
https://www.cpr.org/2020/06/01/colorado-scientists-warn-of-a-second-bigger-coronavirus-peak/
____________________________________________________________________________
Is the tradeoff (the "balance" the administration calls it) with the current death rate tolerable? Trump's answer: the count is wrong. It is an overcount, so change the definition to make him look better or show it is declining. Expert NIH head Dr. Fauci immediately said there more likely an
undercount and fact-checkers looking at expert opinions agree.
Why has Trump and his minions have not cared that much about seniors dying from COVID 19? One theory is that some of his allies resemble the Nazi view of Untermensch and old people are among them. Any time you compare Trumpers to Nazis is inflammatory, yet , gads, they certainly sound like them.
From the Daily Kos: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/1/1934455/-Trump-s-Nazification-of-the-GOP-is-why-there-s-serious-discussion-of-killing-off-the-unfit
"White House National Economic Council chairman Larry Kudlow claimed in an interview that “The cure can’t be worse than the disease, and we’re gonna have to make some difficult trade-offs.” Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said on live television that “lots of grandparents” are willing to “take a chance” on their survival for the good of the economy. Brit Hume of Fox News said it’s “entirely reasonable” to let family members die for the stock market. "
Then there was FOX person Bill O'Reilly who callously proclaimed ""many were dying from coronavirus were on their last legs anyway: https://thehill.com/homenews/media/491994-bill-oreilly-many-dying-from-coronavirus-were-on-last-legs-anyway Glad I am not a grandparent of Kudlow, Patrick , O'Reilly, and Hume" given how much they care about older people.
That's me and those like me on which much of the "balance" rests, an older person, those of us most at greater risk. There are 2500 seniors of the total population of 15,000 in Grand County, Colorado.. .As an inhabitant of the County which has not felt much of the virus impact so far, I fear the numbers could rise as tourists and second homeowners return from places where the virus count is greater. Per Jerad Polis, Colorado Governor, on Colorado Public Radio May 11, of 10 seniors who get the virus, 3 or 4 will end up in the hospital; for non-seniors, the odds are one in ten. A person on a ventilator has a 50% chance of survival, the only known treatment of the very sick now. At least we have enough ventilators and PPE now. Some comfort. Testing? We'll muddle through .because the federal government is muddling through, too, but rapid is not what they want to do or summon the powers to do it. The President calls testing overrated. He made the eyebrow-raising claim if you test fewer people, the number of the infected will go down. Rachel Maddow made the damning analogy: Close the fire stations, and the number of reported fires will go down, too. It's his way of rationalizing not having the ability or making the effort to make testing his priority over other considerations. Unfortunately, the only effective way to slow the advance of the pandemic that has no effective treatment or a vaccine is to identify the carriers and the infected with testing, to trace whom they have may have exposed and infected, warn them, and isolate them. That method is a century old and court-tested, provided strict guidelines protecting the privacy of patients and contacts are observed.
The problem with loosening rules in the general community is that others in their household can bring home COVID 19 to them. While we are not New York City, we can learn something from them.. 66% of those COVID-19 recently hospitalized patients in NYC were observing stay at home rules, but they had others in their homes who were working or running errands outside and brought the virus home. For that reason what happens in the general community does increase the threat to Seniors. Open for business also means open for more cases of COVID 19 in the general population.https://www.wired.com/story/why-has-covid-19-hit-seniors-so-hard/ On June 1, Gov. Polis said that his science advisors fear this second wave throughout the state because fewer are observing the safer at home rules. .Grand County's proximity to Denver in the summer recreation season will be felt. The thousands in Denver protesting police brutality chanting and side by side marching are also at risk and will contribute to the feared spike. None the less, while the stay at home rule for seniors has continued, Gov. Polis did loosen the rules to allow them to recreate outside. He continued the safer at home rules for another 30 days. The 2500 seniors who live in Grand County have been relatively safe until now. However, they are now even more at risk as tourists and visitors return. Until late May, and in the preceding two months, the county had only five cases. Within a couple of weeks of time, the number of total cases tripled since COVID 19 was confirmed in Grand County., The spike in the county occurred about two weeks after the influx of masks and social distance shunning, group gathering tourists increased in mid-May.. Political and personal bravado and thumbing noses at masks and social distancing in the face of COVID is a danger to their own health and particularly to seniors. There were also a few locals who did not respect the safer at home state rules. No deaths of those in the county have been reported.
Two weeks after a large number of masks and social distance shunning visitors on Memorial Day weekend, conditions may become even more dangerous for seniors. Experts believe the virus goes somewhat dormant in summer though experts also think it will come back in the fall. Predictions are not a sure thing since even the experts are basing this projection on the behavior of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic and there is no guarantee this new virus will act in the same way.. Some prior viruses have mutated and lost their ability to cause extreme results. Scientists do know that the COVID 19 virus does not do well in moist heat and high UV rays and loves cool and dry weather. Grand County is cooler and drier than many other places in America, but Colorado high country does have some of the higher UV levels, too., which could be offsetting factors. Seniors like me are still advised to adhere to State recommended modified stay at home rules for those over 65. I will be monitoring the local situation carefully before venturing out under "safer at home" rules. Those who will get my family's and my business will be restaurants and retail stores that demonstrate they are safe by adhering to the rules.
.
(removed to its separate posting 6 13 2020)
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-06-10/trump-coronavirus-protests-senior-voters-arizona
Trump made a devil's bargain and seniors noticed they drew the short stick. His callous attitudes toward seniors has taken a toll. . So what if the infection death rate increases. for seniors The administration looks at it as a tradeoff; a balancing act. However, there has been an unanticipated political price to pay for it.The political backlash is already being felt as Trump's polls show seniors' support of Trump had swung to Biden in a short time as the number of dead from COVID-19 rose to over 100,000 by the end of May, and was projected to be 134,000 by August 1.. Seniors have been the most predictable voters and Trump-supporting demographic until late April, but no longer., especially in swing states Trump needs to win, per https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-05-29/older-voters-support-joe-biden-over-trump-amid-coronavirus-pandemic This is no minor loss for Trump. Seniors make up one-quarter of voters and the most reliable voters who turn out to vote. In 2016, Trump carried seniors by 10 points It is now reversed. Morning Consult tracking poll April 20, "By a nearly 6-to-1 margin, people 65 years old and older say it’s more important for the government to address the spread of coronavirus than it is to focus on the economy. "
Even in spite of senior support tanking, Trump beat the drum for the nation to open for business, ready or not, as he tried to bury the CDC handbook on how to do it safely. (It was finally released it this past week with administration pleasing revisions) The cost of increased deaths is worth reviving the economy is his implied message. He doubled down May 21 when he made it clear that if there is a return of the virus in the fall, he will not close down the country (though he does not have the power to require states to comply). May 22, again he ruled all houses of worship re-open, though he likewise does not have the power to force states to comply. In both cases, he is doing nothing but harming seniors, the most frequent churchgoers, and the most vulnerable under a live and let die "edict". He does not care about seniors' health yet he hopes to get their vote.
******************************************************************
End of blog column. Below, more discussion and links to sources and data.
I have noticed with some of the feedback from those following Trump media vilification of Dr. Fauci. He has become the voodoo doll of those who object to any scientific report that contradicts Donald Trump's tweets and pronouncements. It is a pervasive view among the right ideologues that scientists are a conspiracy to hurt their hero president and business interests or attack their preconceived self-centered, self-interested, ideological notions. Dr. Fauci's views are the same as nearly every bonafide scientific fact-based reviewers in the world, not just the ones in the USA.. Science deniers do so at their own peril when they act in defiance of science by not taking recommended precautions or taking warnings seriously if they do not come from conservative political sources. They also endanger those who accept science as factual by contributing to the exposure and spread of the disease, especially seniors.
https://www.cpr.org/2020/06/01/colorado-scientists-warn-of-a-second-bigger-coronavirus-peak/
____________________________________________________________________________
In Florida, the senior vote is particularly significant since it is such a retirement venue and it is a swing state usually with winners getting by with very thin margins. How seniors feels aboiut Trump v Biden will be something to watch: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-crucial-florida-some-senior-voters-cast-a-skeptical-eye-toward-trumps-reelection/2020/05/25/4e5e2ef8-9ab4-11ea-89fd-28fb313d1886_story.html
Is the tradeoff (the "balance" the administration calls it) with the current death rate tolerable? Trump's answer: the count is wrong. It is an overcount, so change the definition to make him look better or show it is declining. Expert NIH head Dr. Fauci immediately said there more likely an
undercount and fact-checkers looking at expert opinions agree.
Why has Trump and his minions have not cared that much about seniors dying from COVID 19? One theory is that some of his allies resemble the Nazi view of Untermensch and old people are among them. Any time you compare Trumpers to Nazis is inflammatory, yet , gads, they certainly sound like them.
From the Daily Kos: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/1/1934455/-Trump-s-Nazification-of-the-GOP-is-why-there-s-serious-discussion-of-killing-off-the-unfit
"White House National Economic Council chairman Larry Kudlow claimed in an interview that “The cure can’t be worse than the disease, and we’re gonna have to make some difficult trade-offs.” Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said on live television that “lots of grandparents” are willing to “take a chance” on their survival for the good of the economy. Brit Hume of Fox News said it’s “entirely reasonable” to let family members die for the stock market. "
Then there was FOX person Bill O'Reilly who callously proclaimed ""many were dying from coronavirus were on their last legs anyway: https://thehill.com/homenews/media/491994-bill-oreilly-many-dying-from-coronavirus-were-on-last-legs-anyway Glad I am not a grandparent of Kudlow, Patrick , O'Reilly, and Hume" given how much they care about older people.
That's me and those like me on which much of the "balance" rests, an older person, those of us most at greater risk. There are 2500 seniors of the total population of 15,000 in Grand County, Colorado.. .As an inhabitant of the County which has not felt much of the virus impact so far, I fear the numbers could rise as tourists and second homeowners return from places where the virus count is greater. Per Jerad Polis, Colorado Governor, on Colorado Public Radio May 11, of 10 seniors who get the virus, 3 or 4 will end up in the hospital; for non-seniors, the odds are one in ten. A person on a ventilator has a 50% chance of survival, the only known treatment of the very sick now. At least we have enough ventilators and PPE now. Some comfort. Testing? We'll muddle through .because the federal government is muddling through, too, but rapid is not what they want to do or summon the powers to do it. The President calls testing overrated. He made the eyebrow-raising claim if you test fewer people, the number of the infected will go down. Rachel Maddow made the damning analogy: Close the fire stations, and the number of reported fires will go down, too. It's his way of rationalizing not having the ability or making the effort to make testing his priority over other considerations. Unfortunately, the only effective way to slow the advance of the pandemic that has no effective treatment or a vaccine is to identify the carriers and the infected with testing, to trace whom they have may have exposed and infected, warn them, and isolate them. That method is a century old and court-tested, provided strict guidelines protecting the privacy of patients and contacts are observed.
Now our science-denying President is promising a vaccine by January, contrary to the prediction of scientists in and outside of his administration. No doubt his science-denying followers will fall for that line and be comforted. His suggestion that he could inject chemicals and UV rays in the body made him the world's laughing stock, and his promotion of his own, already debunked and dangerous solution of hydroxychloroquine as a cureall, gets thumbs down by scientists, too,. The largest study to date of hydroxychloroquine was reported May 12 in the American Medical Association journal as being dangerous, causing heart attacks in certain instances, and ineffective. He continues denying his own scientists' predictions that the virus will return in the fall. If any scientist of an agency over which he has control dares openly and directly disagrees with him, he simply fires them. The worst-case scenario for him politically is that shortly before November election day, the virus comes roaring back. Many more voters will realize they have more trust in Trump as a real-estate promoter than as a politician. We can at least hope and pray the virus does not return in the fall because seniors like me will still be the most likely victims.
Nursing homes have become hotspots for infection and attention to them has varied from state to state. Jerad Polis, Gov. of Colorado, will now test nursing homes with an enhanced program: Per Colorado Public Radio 5/22/20 "
Nursing homes have become hotspots for infection and attention to them has varied from state to state. Jerad Polis, Gov. of Colorado, will now test nursing homes with an enhanced program: Per Colorado Public Radio 5/22/20 "
"Colorado Will Test For Coronavirus At Every Nursing Home In The State Every Week For 8 Weeks |
| "Watching as even the strictest lockdown measures failed to stop the disease from creeping into the state's long-term care facilities, Colorado State University researchers launched a pilot study to test employees at five skilled nursing facilities. "They suspected that asymptomatic staff members were bringing COVID-19 to work with them. It turns out, they were right — around 12 percent of the staff members that showed no symptoms tested positive. "Those results caught Gov. Jared Polis’ eye, and now the CSU team, in partnership with the state, will take their practices statewide." |
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/17/fact-check-covid-19-death-toll-likely-undercounted-not-overcounted/2973481001/
https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c
For those who want to get into the weeds why Fauci and so many others believe the deaths from COVID 19 are underreported, take a look at this: https://www.economist.com/
https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2020/unusual-coronavirus-symptoms.html?cmp=SNO-ICM-FB-COVID-HLTH&socialid=3345995352
https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c
For those who want to get into the weeds why Fauci and so many others believe the deaths from COVID 19 are underreported, take a look at this: https://www.economist.com/
https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2020/unusual-coronavirus-symptoms.html?cmp=SNO-ICM-FB-COVID-HLTH&socialid=3345995352
https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/co/grand-county-population/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/hydroxychloroquine-veterans-study/index.html
As reported by Democracy Now May 12, " the Journal of the American Medical Association — looked at nearly 1,500 patients in New York and found that those on hydroxychloroquine had a similar death rate to those who did not take it, but were more than twice as likely to suffer cardiac arrest. Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert and adviser to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said, “The nail has virtually been put in the coffin of hydroxychloroquine.”
Per the Journal of the American Medical Association:https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766117
"this study is the largest report of adverse effects of hydroxychloroquine among patients with COVID-19. Cardiac arrest was more frequent in patients who received hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin, compared with patients who received neither drug, even after adjustment. This is in the context of similar levels of preexisting coronary artery disease and hypertension, although patients receiving hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin were overall sicker on presentation.25,26 Increased clinician vigilance for arrhythmias among patients receiving hydroxychloroquine may have led to a detection bias due to more frequent ECG performance. Given the lower association for arrhythmias than cardiac arrest, this may not have been a significant source of error. In the group of patients not receiving mechanical ventilation, risk for cardiac arrest remained statistically significantly elevated for hydroxychloroquine only compared with azithromycin only, suggesting that this risk was not mediated by mechanical ventilation.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/06/older-people-account-for-large-shares-of-poll-workers-and-voters-in-u-s-general-elections/
.https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chris-christie-reopening-economy-deaths-no-matter-what/
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/30/848666551/older-voters-swing-toward-biden-in-polls-during-the-pandemic?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR152BgUBl6cLv9C-9_sE4WWm67ZJ4ROpUqFIirjlNlqaz_mPPQD8Q-7Mfg
https://www.cpr.org/2020/05/06/coronavirus-deaths-keep-climbing-in-housing-for-the-elderly/
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