Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Thinking about secession ? Be careful what you wish.

 In a shocking October 2021 poll, over half of Trump voters think it is time to secede. .  Be careful what you wish,. Majority of Trump Voters Believe It's Time to Secede, Survey Finds (businessinsider.com   In my January 6 posting about domestic terrorism, I made reference to the breakup of Yugoslavia in the first half of the 1990s in a bloody civil war. Yesterday, on MSNBC'sMorning Joe, a historian reported on a book she wrote after surveying the causes of civil wars and what contributes to the attempted breakup of countries.  What they all had in common was the rise of hyper ethnic identification and the end of an ideology to which they once as a nation subscribed.   In our multi-racial country  with the vast majority of its citizens pledging allegiance to the "republic for which it stands", a general agreement that the democracy founded and institutionalized in the Constitution has been the binding ideology.   Instead, when ethnic and racial purity and separatism fuel the conflict as now, and pledges to the national ideology of our kind of democracy are thrown aside, civil war becomes a possibility.. 

Most states that are dependent on federal funds today, who  get more from the federal government than they pay back in taxes, are red states in the south. These taker states are by and large, danger to your health, with the worst healthcare.  The one blue state consistent through out any measure is New Mexico with its heavy native American population. 

Which States Are Givers and Which Are Takers? - The Atlantic   The states that take more money per capita from the federal government than they take in from individuals in those states are southern states, (exception: New Mexico with its large impoverished Native American population). Mississippi, Alabama. :Louisiana, and South Carolina...The Atlantic article has the ranking of all 50 states.  These former slave states would have to make up the loss of federal aid and subsidies if they were to break away.

State prosperity rankings: State-by-State Overall Rankings – US Prosperity

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/health-insurance/best-worst-states-for-healthcare


 


 Unilateral attempts to separate from a country more than not becomes bloody. There was a deadly conflic in the 1990s with which I have first hand familiarity...  My late husband was a refugee from communist Yugoslavia with ancestral roots in three of its seven  "states", Croatia,  Bosnia, and Montenegro..  The Balkans have forever been the poster child of ethnic identification and bloody conflicts and it resulted in ethnic-based small countries. Balkanization is what this syndrome is called wherever it happens in the world.  Major ethnic groups were sharing a common language in old Yugoslavia and their homeland were stuck together into one country by treaties after World War I.   There were violent ethnic nationalist  movements in parts of their area when they were ruled by the Hapsburg empire prior to World War I  World War I began with the assassination of the Hapsburg archduke in Sarajevo, Bosnia, by a member of a Serbian ethnic nationalist secret organization.    During World War II, Yugoslavia was not only a theater of war between Nazis, Royalists, and communists, it was a civil war between those with ethnic identification. Religion was only one of several traits identifying ethnicity. Post-war communist dictator Tito put into prison any supporter of ethnic nationalism and kept the lid on an unresolved civil war until his death.  Within ten years after his death, the country erupted into the worst civil war in Europe since World War II.  Why? When a common ideology has been the glue holding a multi-cultural state together fail, ethnic and racial conflicts resulted in a bloody civil war is one theory, though economic disparities and self interest also play a greater role.  There are few examples of peaceful breakups I can recall. Czechoslovakia broke in two in a velvet revolution after the fall of  the old USSR. It was a mutual agreed to separation.  I noted in the January 6 posting, " The breakup (of Yugoslavia) eventually happened in the mid-1990s in the genocidal civil war conducted by Serbian hyper ethnic nationalists, fueled by their demagogic leader President Milovan Milosevic, infamous for being prosecuted later in an international tribunal for war crimes also known as "ethnic cleansing". There were 300,000 victims in Bosnia alone with a population the size of Colorado's. The country remains the poorest in Europe over 25 years later and is again threatened by Bosnian- Serbian separatists. Let that be a lesson for those supporting US extremist white nationalists who advocate violence and separatism, too. Be careful what you wish."

What has happened in the past few years in the US  is that a large block of the nation no longer pledges allegiance to the liberal democracy, the rule of law, and the various amendments to the Constitution protecting minority rights.  Instead, they have fallen to the spell of white nationalism and "cultural" identification of the South, and a dog whistling demagogue, Donald Trump as president and ex-president, , who  intensified and appealed to their instincts., With voter supression and subversion laws passed by their state legislatures, they see their government as being of, by, and for their political party that is composed heavily  of their favored racial groups and loyal supporters of Trump. Those who grumble considering separtism,  are forgetting how devastated the South was since the 1860'civil war and it still is at the bottom of the index by any measure of personal income and education. Many of these former slave states take more federal money per capita than they give back to the federal government in per capita taxes.  Its white  majority is still attempting to keep racial minorities from gaining any more political power.  A sizeable number are even supporting violence as a political tool if they do not like what their government is doing. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/01/republicans-violence-save-us-poll    This is a formula for a disaster.  Never has it been truer than now, those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.  



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