Democrats still need to link voters angry over Roe v Wade to House elections

Update 9/14/22:  Sen. Lindsey Graham has just handed blue states a legislative litmus test for Democrats to use to put GOP House candidates on the spot on the issue of abortion.  It is a gift to Democrats   Lindsey Graham’s national 15-week abortion ban probably won’t help Republicans in the midterms - Vox   The flip side of this is for voters to ask if the candidate would support making Roe v Wade the law of the land?

Thanks to that old partisan technique of drawing district borders to make as many congressional districts "safe" for one party, there are few districts left that can swing one way or the other.   There are enough swing districts, however, still in the contention that both parties have a chance to control the House.    The keys to winning a swing district are two: public policy issues that motivate greater than average turnout and the "quality" of the candidates. For Democrats, the determination of winning swing states will be the position of the candidates on the codification of Roe v Wade and fear of a Trumpist takeover of the government, the end of democracy. Those are their top two issues per a very recent NBC poll.  For the Trump GOP, it is the economy, stupid, and absolute loyalty to Trump and Trumpism.   Where Democrats are falling short so far is connecting the young and suburban voters with their opposition to the overturn of Roe v Wade to their own district congressional and state legislative candidates. One way to make a link is to ask, "how will the candidate vote if elected to make Roe v Wade the federal law of the land".   Putting that question directly to candidates for Congress should be very revealing and pertinent to the position to which they are being elected. It is more than "what side are you on" on abortion rights. It is easy to demagogue that answer.  

 NY Times compilation of Democratic party ads re: choice   Recent polls show 57% of all Americans opposed the overturning of Roe v Wade and 52% of states with restrictive laws on women's choice.  PP_2022.07.06_Roe-v-Wade_REPORT.pdf (pewresearch.org)     Saving democracy is the single top issue for 21%; jobs, economy, and cost of living combined are still top.  Since Roe v Wade overturned, Democrats, closed the enthusiasm gap signaling the issue is will motivate Democratic turnout in November.     NBC August Poll shows increase concern for democracy   https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/after-redistricting-heres-how-each-party-could-win-house     

 The strategy Democrats take also will vary from state to state. Where to put the campaign money and attention is important.  Wasting money on a lost cause district is not wise, but in a swing district, efforts count more.  Tying the issue of Roe v Wade legislation connected with political party affiliation is also helpful because, given the usual diminished attention to individual congressional campaigns and the prohibitive expense of TV advertising, voters tend to vote straight tickets for congressional and down-ballot candidates if they are uncertain who they are and what policy positions they favor.  The fewer Senate and state-wide races will get the media exposure since the cost is spread out statewide with more moderates, unaffiliated, and swing voters voting in general elections than in primaries. Due to more and more states using non-partisan commissions to draw boundaries in 2022, gerrymandering is not as determining a factor as it has been in the past in the midwest. States in the south, having their state legislatures draw the district boundaries, are the most gerrymandered, but in the West, with wider use of the independent commissions to draw boundaries (as in Colorado), the outcome was little change.  For example, in southern states, only 10 percent of congressional districts are swing,  lower than the national average. Still, in the midwest, there are more swing districts than there were before this year's redistricting (a process after each census year),  enough to offset the southern states' gerrymandering efforts by Republicans.  Both parties have a path to winning a majority in the House this year per the Brennan Center. .https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/after-redistricting-heres-how-each-party-could-win-house