Hitting Russia where it hurts; decreasing EU dependency on Russian gas

The press conference held in the Hague after a meeting on nuclear issues       last week was both clarifying and revealing.  Much can be deduced about our relationship with Russia, the Ukraine situation, and the world’s view of America’s leadership, its limit of power, and in particular, Pres. Obama’s role.  The President came in for high praise from the hosting  Dutch foreign minister for his leadership.

 The goal, per the President, is to give those in Ukraine the chance to decide on their own relationship wit h the West and Russia  in May elections. Looming is the fear  Russia will  attempt to carve out a land bridge from Russia  to Crimea through Eastern Ukraine. .

 Ukraine has a Russian gun pointed at its head.. The fear is Russia will try the same tactics used  in Crimea…outside provocateurs,  gangs of irregulars, and infiltration of unmarked military personnel. . Currently massed on Ukraine’s borders are Russian troops.  Putin initiated a call to Pres. Obama, but at this writing it is unknown if Russian troops were pulled back and Russia accepted the deal to have international observers protect Russian speaking Ukrainians from the new Ukraine  government in Kiev.

A measure   to kick Russia out of the G8 and  isolate Russia  got   unanimous approval in the Netherlands . This follows Russia’s veto in the UN of a resolution upheld by 13  other  members of  the Security Council declaring Russia’s takeover of Crimea invalid.  Only China abstained.  

The original group of  Western  economic super  powers was once called the G7.  The first time Russia was  invited  to participate was when the summit was held in Denver in  1997  .  Those of us living in Colorado were eye witnesses to quite a  spectacle and the first ladies  were treated to a train ride to Winter Park and lunch.

A very important outcome in the Hague  was unanimous reaffirmation that NATO military  treaty obligations would be honored if Russia tried to expand to the Baltic states, which, like Crimea and  parts of the Ukraine  also have large populations of Russians. There are many Lithuanian immigrants in Grand  County who must be taking comfort from that.

The delicate question is how can Western Europe up the ante to  modify Russia’s  behavior  short of military action without shooting themselves or the US in ours or their  own economic  feet. The most effective way would be for Europe stop being dependent on  oil and gas from Russia. This would get Russia where it hurts since their  economy has been pumped up by sales to the West.. The EU is presenting a plan in June to wean themselves from Russian energy.

Russia is already feeling the pressure.   Rana Foroohar, writing in Time, March 24, 2014, believes “Putin’s petro state will eventually implode all by itself”,  pointing out the US that has the fastest growth in the world.   She predicted  that there would be a foreign capital flight to the US “as investors seek safety in US Treasury bills and blue-chip stocks. In economic terms, the war over Ukraine has already been won – and not by Putin.” Russian government sources confirm the flight of capita out of Russia,  $70 billion in the first quarter (as much as in all 2013); stagnation instead of forecasted growth, and inflation of 7% due to the ruble devaluation.

For more on" EU to take measures against dependency on Russian gas",
http://www.setimes.com//cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2014/03/28/feature-01
The Southeast European Times is sponsored by the US European Command, the joint military command responsible for US operations in 52 countries.
A version of this also appeared in print: http://www.skyhidailynews.com/news/opinion/10871531-113/russia-ukraine-russian-view
From the New York Times, April 17, 2014
"While the annexation of Crimea has rocketed President Vladimir V. Putin’s approval rating to more than 80 percent, it has also contributed to a sobering downturn in Russia’s economy, which was in trouble even before the West imposed sanctions. With inflation rising, growth stagnating, the ruble and stock market plunging, and billions in capital fleeing the country for safety, the economy is teetering on the edge of recession, as the country’s minister of economic development acknowledged on Wednesday."

2014...a three way battle for the hearts and minds of the middle class

The 2014 midterm Congressional elections are shaping up to  be a three way battle between two wings of the GOP and a more unified Democratic party for the hearts and minds of the middle class. What they all agree is that the middle class income has stagnated while the upper 1% have benefited from the recovery and longer standing trends in the economy. What to do about it, if anything, is the new three way battleground.

 In this State of the Union address, the President laid out  an action plan. He proposed more job training, Pre K education support,  raising the minimum wage, providing more financial security through continuing Obamacare  by removing financial fear of bankruptcy due to unpayable medical bills, and new retirement  accounts for those  not with employer IRAs, among others . 

  The new approach advocated by   more GOP  moderates is to reposition the GOP as the party of “alternatives” because  just saying “no” is not a White House winning strategy.  Their Tea Party flank is still stuck in “repeal everything Obama has passed and oppose everything he proposes .”   The increasing income gap had just put a lie to the Republican’s trickle down theories that  a rising tide would lift  all boats if only government got out of the way.  To some in the GOP it appeared   voters were indeed looking for some hand up from the government to give them more opportunity and they were seeing   the lack of Congressional  action a nada tostada approach that was uncaring.  

Last week saw  the first Republican attempt to propose an “alternative” to Obamacare.   Republican amigo  Senators Tom Coburn (OK) ,  Orrin  Hatch (UT), and Richard Burr( NC),  proposed  a  replacement for Obamacare .  It is a plan ripe for a Democrat counter attack because it places a financial  burden on the working  middle class and older Americans  in order to get business, invincible individuals, and  medical provider  interests off the hook from doing  anything.  .   This alternative tostada will be  a hard one for middle class America to swallow.

Attempting to keep popular parts of the ACA and ditch anything resembling  a mandate on business and individuals enforced and paid for  with fines and  taxes on medical devices, the Three Amigo Senators came up with a  scheme to pay for subsidies to make insurance affordable to consumers and to cover those with pre-existing conditions. To pay for their proposal, the GOP senators   would raise taxes on all   Americans  getting  their health insurance from employers by making most health insurance benefits taxable income. They would  permit  greater increases for  the cost of premiums to older Americans than permitted by Obamacare  and  they would kick  out a sizeable number of middle class from Obamacare’s premium subsidies. The proposal  lets the young healthy and those of any age  go insurance naked,  free to shift  their un paid medical bills  to everyone else, relieves  hospitals and other providers  from taking  any action to keep  health care costs down, and eliminates requirements that employers with more than 50 employees provide health insurance.  It also reduces Medicaid, subsidizing more  poor to find  more expensive private market insurance.  Those with pre-existing conditions who have not yet managed to get coverage and keep it  are kicked into a subsidized  insurance pool paid  by the higher income taxes on the already insured.

Scandal...the most over used and abused word in politics

Calling every  failing of those in high places  “scandals”   has become the most overused  and abused  word in politics   these past 12 months. .   Politicians beware.  Voters are smarter than you think.  All scandals are not equal and you may be able to fool some  voters part of the time, but not all  voters all of the time. 

Since Watergate, all those seeking to take down a powerful person have found scandal mongering to be the most effective tool in the political arsenal. 24/7 ideologically partisan news channels and eager beaver investigative reporters are the megaphones, hoping to make  any shortcoming the equal of Watergate by call it a “scandal”, too. Calling it one does not make it one.  

 Voters have shown the ability to tell the difference between a serious scandal, and one that is a lesser offense that is not a game changer.  The sexual misconduct of Pres. Bill Clinton may have gotten him impeached , his policies and execution of his duties may have been delayed, but they were  not stopped. Voters saw through the politics of that impeachment process: an attempt to cripple a leader with morals charges  to block his agenda. In contrast, Watergate coverup and dirty deeds traced directly to Pres. Richard Nixon’s scheming  resulted in his resignation to avoid impeachment.

Hillary Clinton and   Ben Ghazi and New Jersey Governor  Christ Christie’s Bridgegate, and rogue IRS agents discriminating against conservatives groups  in a distant office  are  hawked to media consumers as equally serious “scandals”.  These  share very different  DNA, one about political hard ball  and charges of misuse of power  by Christie’s officials  and another, Clinton, about  failure to use power and misjudgments of underlings and even of a victim himself.  True, this resulted in four dead Americans. IRS discrimination against conservative groups were never traced to Pres. Obama.  What all  have in common is they are as much about the presidential race in 2016  and midterms 2014  and the fodder they give potential opponents.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said at his epic news conference,  “politics ain’t beanbag” as he defended  himself against charges his staff took  revenge on political “enemies”  by blocking traffic on  the George Washington Bridge. New accusations that  he used rewarding of Hurricane Sandy repair funds as a bludgeon are emerging   So far it looks like he plays politics with a hockey puck. Whether it rises to a crime and he is found to hold the smoking gun is not yet known nor is it to be automatically assumed.  Voters should wait and see.

Wait and see about Ben Ghazi should be over. The bi-partisan  report  issued in January by the Senate Intelligence Committee  moved Ben Ghazi from the Fox chatterers to the main stream topic, and   it did pin blame on the State Department .  The decisions that contributed to the tragedy were never traced to policy directives from  Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The buck did not get passed to her.   But for now  Ben Ghazi   becomes a continuing “scandal”  in the eyes of the GOP .  Some Republicans vowed  just to ignore the report and to keep on putting a fictitious  smoking gun in her hands. Most voters will not buy that line. The evidence is just not there.