Showing posts with label State of the Union. Show all posts
Showing posts with label State of the Union. Show all posts

Friday, March 4, 2022

Biden turns the table on rightwing talking points: fund police and secure our borders

 In his State of the Union address, Joe Biden turned GOP talking point phrases back at them.  The GOP has made hay from phrases like "defund the police" and "secure our borders", in an attempt to distort Biden's positions which were more moderate than some in his party had embraced.  The GOP has also invented another distortion in order to turn Jan 6 into what it was not. This bit of talk was hardly credible given the wide distribution of video of the violence that day and many guilty pleas by participating violent rioters charged with crimes. That one "legitimate political discourse" has not made it to the mainstream from the MAGA controlled "conservatives".  The idea that violent riot was protected free speech has been shot down whenever a judge heard the phrase uttered in the courtroom.

At the risk of offending some in his party who had created the "defund the police" slogan in the George Floyd riots, Biden countered with "fund the police" in his State of Union address Tuesday.  That is no change from Biden's position because the day after the "defund police" slogan emerged, he countered and distanced himself from those advocating this. Defund to the BLM folks meant that to punish police for abuses, but for nearly everyone else, cutting police funding was an anathema. The moderates wanted more and better policing, not less, more community-based police, more funding for training, and more support from mental health and social service professionals. This is Biden's meaning, as well.  For the GOP. that was going to be in their attack ad strategy in the 2022 midterms painting all of their Democratic opponents and Biden as fellow defund police advocates. That is dishonest of them, but in spite of Biden's many attempts to differentiate his position, his position never got the attention it deserved. So, in the State of the Union address Biden rephrased the slogan to "fund the police" and he had the backup fact to show what he meant. Funding the police had increased during his first years in office.  Now when some on the right who did not get the memo. expect them to claim their opponents want to "defund police" and the retort to be from the Democrats can be "fund the police".  Biden knew he might get a reaction from the more radical members of his party, and he did, but he persisted.

The very strange response to US aid to Ukraine rose from the MAGA crowd: We need to secure our borders first. Silly, since we can do both at the same time and Ukraine involves military aid. The problem at the southern borders cannot be solved by stingers and javelins.  Strange, because it makes the rest of us wonder, just whose side MAGA folks are the on in the Ukrainian crisis.  Strange, because the bipartisan support for the Ukrainians leaves them isolated and in the dustbin of history like the 1930's American Firsters and isolationists and lovers of dictators (politely called "autocrats" in 2022).  These "take care of our southern borders instead of the Ukrainians" are classic apples and oranges uttered by the head-in-the- sand isolationists and the fearful of more brown skinned immigrants trying to take advantage of the myth of "open borders" they accuse Democrats as advocating.  Biden took their phrase and threw it back at the GOP talkers, using the exact phrase in his State of the Union address of "secure our borders" by his actions and by increasing funding to screen and to streamline and better fund the judicial process to make sure these immigrants were indeed ones who could claim asylum from persecution as permitted and defined by law.   

What will make a difference in 2022 midterms?  There might be a way to keep the House if Democrats go on the offensive against MAGA affiliated GOP candidates.  Cultural issues, racism expressed now in CRT school and parental control battles, fear of brown people invading us from our borders, religious fervor against gays and trans, and anti-choice, will be the currents against which Democrats will be swimming.  However, public policy issues might swing districts to the Democrats and the control of the House will depend on the outcome of races in these swing districts. All politics in  2022 is local and campaigns need to be tailored to each Congressional district. It might make a difference  in contested districts if Democrats can go on the offensive and pin MAGA candidates as un-American, and not caring about democracy and   the wellbeing of their own constituents. The message is, this MAGA candidate is off the deep end and has been (or will be) working against the specific interests of their constituents.

 I can see the Democratic attack ads now, painting specific MAGA candidates as being anti democracy, pro Putin, against US national security interests. and voting against local infrastructure and prescription drug interests of the district.   While the GOP moans and groan over inflation and what have they done or voted or will do to deal with it that Biden has not already done? (This assumes inflation has not come down during the campaign) There is no plan, but obstructing aay Democratic legislative measures regardless of the merit. Why is it that red states districts have the highest murder rates in the country if Democrats are so soft on crime?   Incumbent MAGA candidates have a voting record: Their votes on how they voted on Ukraine matters such as resolutions supporting NATO in the Ukrainian conflict (63 Republicans voted against it because of implied criticism of a Hungarian dictator).  That could be a poster child, an iconic vote, of being against democracy, or still in the thrall of Putin.  How did they vote on specific project  infrastructure funding  that would have benefited their district?



 


Monday, February 11, 2019

Recent polls are flashing warnings for both parties

A version of this was published in the on line version of the Sky Hi News: https://www.skyhinews.com/news/opinion-muftic-recent-polls-are-flashing-warnings-for-both-parties/

 I have been following public opinion polls closely it seems forever. It is a habit I picked up during years of being active in politics, doing polling myself, and hiring pollsters. The value of nationwide polls is not predicting who or what will win on election day; we have seen too many misfires when elections are close. The voting registered through the Electoral College often distorts the nationwide popular vote outcome. State by state polls have more meaning then.  The highest value of national polls is helping political strategists keep a grip on reality even in a closely divided nation where there still can be lopsided results on public policy issues. Democrats and Republicans should consider them flashing caution lights and ignore them at their own peril.

 Analyzing polls can be tricky. How many, when, who were asked, and how important were ranked issues to voters, are critical elements in interpreting polls. Ask yourself if 80% of Republicans support Donald Trump, why is it he had been polling around 40%-43% nationally per multi polls reported by conservative leaning Real Clear Politics, February 6.  It is math. There are more Democrats than Republicans. In 2018, Gallup found 40% identified as Democrats, 29% as Republicans and 28% as independents. For example, Donald Trump’s State of the Union address polled 76% approval, but CNN found only those who watched it were polled and they were 17% more Republican, warping the results a bit. Nonetheless, Trump nearly a week later showed a significant bump in job approval over prior national polls. How permanent that bump will be may be short lived if he shuts down the government again or calls for a national emergency.  Right now, the country is more closely divided on the president than it was just before his State of the Union address.

Per Gallup, in the 2018 midterms, healthcare, the economy and immigration topped the list of public policy issues.” Other issues that at least seven in 10 voters rate as ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ important include the treatment of women in U.S. society, gun policy and taxes. The investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 U.S. election and climate change rank at the bottom, although roughly half still considered them important”.

 For every public policy issue that has widespread support it seems there will always be at least 30% of the voters who disagree.   It is rare if approval of anything exceeds 65 to 70% but polls registering 65% or higher are as near to a national consensus as we can get. To reach that figure, parts of more than one demographic, party affiliation, or geographic location must agree.  

 I set out to find any publicly released polls that registered approval/disapproval of opinions on issues and politicians in at least the 65- 70% range I did.  Caution lights for the GOP:  90% favor background checks on guns (Politifact) and taxing the ultra-rich scored 76% approval. (reported Fortune and News Max).  Nonpartisan, nonprofit Pew Research found 70% against overturning Roe v Wade. Building the wall was not as decisive, but mid fifty percent polled opposed it.   reported by The Hill, and over 69% did not think it was a priority, per a Fortune magazine report. Whether the president should declare a national emergency to build it, a CBS poll found 66% disapproval.

 There is clearly a flashing yellow caution light for Democrats trying to craft their platform on health care insurance.  While polls show Medicare for All has had 70% approval, (The Hill) a Kaiser Foundation poll found if it means eliminating private insurance (single payer), approval crashed to 10%. However, only 14% want the current system and they found degrees of support for Medicare with private supplements, and choice between public and private plans.











  
  

  


Friday, January 31, 2014

2014...a three way battle for the hearts and minds of the middle class



The 2014 midterm Congressional elections are shaping up to  be a three way battle between two wings of the GOP and a more unified Democratic party for the hearts and minds of the middle class. What they all agree is that the middle class income has stagnated while the upper 1% have benefited from the recovery and longer standing trends in the economy. What to do about it, if anything, is the new three way battleground.
 In this State of the Union address, the President laid out  an action plan. He proposed more job training, Pre K education support,  raising the minimum wage, providing more financial security through continuing Obamacare  by removing financial fear of bankruptcy due to unpayable medical bills, and new retirement  accounts for those  not with employer IRAs, among others . 
  The new approach advocated by   more GOP  moderates is to reposition the GOP as the party of “alternatives” because  just saying “no” is not a White House winning strategy.  Their Tea Party flank is still stuck in “repeal everything Obama has passed and oppose everything he proposes .”   The increasing income gap had just put a lie to the Republican’s trickle down theories that  a rising tide would lift  all boats if only government got out of the way.  To some in the GOP it appeared   voters were indeed looking for some hand up from the government to give them more opportunity and they were seeing   the lack of Congressional  action a nada tostada approach that was uncaring.  
Last week saw  the first Republican attempt to propose an “alternative” to Obamacare.   Republican amigo  Senators Tom Coburn (OK) ,  Orrin  Hatch (UT), and Richard Burr( NC),  proposed  a  replacement for Obamacare .  It is a plan ripe for a Democrat counter attack because it places a financial  burden on the working  middle class and older Americans  in order to get business, invincible individuals, and  medical provider  interests off the hook from doing  anything.  .   This alternative tostada will be  a hard one for middle class America to swallow.
Attempting to keep popular parts of the ACA and ditch anything resembling  a mandate on business and individuals enforced and paid for  with fines and  taxes on medical devices, the Three Amigo Senators came up with a  scheme to pay for subsidies to make insurance affordable to consumers and to cover those with pre-existing conditions. To pay for their proposal, the GOP senators   would raise taxes on all   Americans  getting  their health insurance from employers by making most health insurance benefits taxable income. They would  permit  greater increases for  the cost of premiums to older Americans than permitted by Obamacare  and  they would kick  out a sizeable number of middle class from Obamacare’s premium subsidies. The proposal  lets the young healthy and those of any age  go insurance naked,  free to shift  their un paid medical bills  to everyone else, relieves  hospitals and other providers  from taking  any action to keep  health care costs down, and eliminates requirements that employers with more than 50 employees provide health insurance.  It also reduces Medicaid, subsidizing more  poor to find  more expensive private market insurance.  Those with pre-existing conditions who have not yet managed to get coverage and keep it  are kicked into a subsidized  insurance pool paid  by the higher income taxes on the already insured.