A bevvy of polls this past week consistently show that Trump's approval ratings are sinking to his core base of true believers and core followers. https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/steve-kornacki-new-poll-shows-cracks-forming-in-trump-s-maga-base-254388805882
It remains to be seen how many of those left in Trump's 2024 winning coalition will suck it up like good patriots. The conclusions of a variety of pollsters are that some pretty angry and disillusioned MAGA voters feel Trump failed them to make good on the cost-of-living issues and feel he lied to them. However, there is also a word of warning for Democrats in the MAGA unrest. Democrats could also fail to deliver, as well, if they ever get both houses of Congress and the Oval Office again. The lesson is: do not make promises you know you cannot keep. The success of Democrat Socialists in the primaries contain some very good pointers for traditional Democrats as well.
The "old 'house built on sand is the first to perish ' "is as good as any old saying ever devised. That sand is what Trump promised to do what he did not have the power to do in 2024. He then doubled down on the inevitable failure by shoveling more sand into a developing sinkhole of quicksand while blaming Biden for it. (Given Biden left the economy with 3 percent inflation, now creeping up, and under $4 a gallon gas seems to have been conveniently forgotten by MAGA. )Wth Trump, the buck never stops at the Oval Office desk.
The issues that poll the worst are the management of the economy (the poor get poorer, and the oligarchs and the Trump family get richer). Even foreign policy, launching the Iran war, is hitting the part of the economy l already left in the dust, and most of them get the connection. In the price of oil per barrel raising costs to farmers). The tax cuts to benefit the rich obviously did not trickle down to the rest of us. Subverting Obamacare and cutting health insurance coverage do not lower, but raise the cost of insurance. (Clever of the GOP to implement it after the midterms, but a warning will be mailed just before Nov. 3.) Launching foreign war ads to the cost of groceries, as well.
Bitten once, voters are not inclined to be bitten again soon. They rightly should be sceptical of anyone of any political stripe promising what they cannot deliver. The Democrats need to be specific about solutions that also sound plausible and limited to the doable. A vague insinuation that voting for Democrats, instead, will simply reverse the trend and punish the person causing it may sound appealing, but those who are specific about exactly what they plan to do and have the power and ability to do it will have the most credibility. The most disillusioned are the younger voters who have the sword of Damocles of student debt hanging over their ability to buy a home or even make day-to-day ends meet. It would be wise for Democrats to address these problems, too, if they fear the disillusioned younger generation flees our form of democracy and the wake of a run-amok capitalism that they feel failed them.
A reader responded that at least Trump is transparent when it comes to potential charges: what he is doing is criminal or in violation of the Constitution. Careful there: Transparency with Trump is not because he is honest. With him, it is a strategy to make you think that since it is in the open, it is not a crime. 1) We do not know what or if, anything else is not disclosed or if he is hiding it; especially any tit-for-tat, quid pro quo, and bribery. 2) he has immunity from prosecution thanks to SCOTUS. 3) He knows his immunity ends when he leaves office so he is trying to get immunity from IRS audits and other potential prosecutions.
There is much handwringing and fear permeating moderates in the Democratic Party, and all in MAGAland. Instead of quaking, there are some lessons for all to learn from these upstarts of Democratic Socialists (DA). Democratic Socialists have had some success in primaries, and here is what Democrats should take a page from their playbook. They are plainspoken, ID the winning issues, and give specific achievable solutions. Democratic Socialists have not promised blue sky, but they have been very specific in what they promise, while sounding feasible, too. (Yes, that current DSA message eclipses some of their very unpopular platform planks). They proposed Medicare for all, an easy-to-understand solution to the cost of health care, for example. They propose building more low-income housing and flooding the market with availability and competition to lower rent costs or the ability to buy the American dream of homeownership., They propose fighting greedy corporations who try to buy up all of the housing they can to control the market, both purchase price and rental. That is another concept voters can grasp. Getting the heck out of futile wars of choice in the Middle East may be a tough one, given the predicted Iranian chokehold on Hormuz. Simply declaring victory and withdrawing will leave Iran having the Western world slung over the high price per barrel for years is not a good outcome. However, doing stupid acts like Trump's war of choice again in the future is also an idea easily grasped.
However, the price of groceries and gas at the pump was never totally in Trump's power to make good on his promises, but they were in his power to make it worse, which he has done. We do not have a centrally planned economy, so "Zap", he could not edict prices, but he could monkey with elements that would affect grocery prices a bit. Instead, what he did do was tariffs, and Hormuz caused prices to rise. Voters seem to get that. He is right now proposing to flood the market with Argentine hamburger meat to force the price of beef down. In so doing, he is really ticking off ranchers and agriculture-related MAGAs within his base. I feel their pain living in an ag community, and I feel mine at the grocery store, too.
The price per barrel of oil is, and never was, in Trump'scontrol. It is a commodity that is marketed worldwide, immediately sensitive to the forces of supply and demand, and under the control of oil cartels. One part of the world sneezes, and the rest of the world, including us in America, gets sick, too. Trump has already released oil reserves, and now our reserves are among the lowest in our post WWII history.
Parts of the following also appear in my Substack and Facebook posts and comments :
Semantics:: Democrats do have a problem in messaging. They sometimes use more than 3-syllable words or words not in common usage by "ordinary" people. Trump ridiculed "affordability". Whoever used that in a conversation, he asked.. Maybe it works (and so far it has) because the first four syllables are in plain English. (affordable, get it?). The other pet peeve I have is the use of "grift". Even I had to run to Webster's for that one to see what it encompassed. However, "grift " for sure was never used as a common term in our family, but it covers much, from padding one's pockets, greed, to bribery and a lot of dirt in between. Corruption comes close enough to be nearly encompassing. (Being greedy does not always result in getting rich) . Whatever both are, affordability and corruption, they are part of the same: unfairness. ...which is very much in common usage. "Fairness" brings up another overriding issue: the rich are getting very rich, and the rest of us are seeing our standard of living decrease. There is a growing outrage that "It just ain't fair!"
"No Kings" served for a time as a substitute for Trump's non-democratic behavior and power grabs, but that sounds quaint, even if it is a non-hackle-raising accusation. Actually, the best parallel to Trump's obsession with gathering all the wealth he can while he can, issuing his own laws, ignoring laws that stand in his way, and punishing those who disobey them or him, or do not comply, fits the "mob boss" role model the best. Since the venue is government, the best tag is "political mobster" or "political mob boss". Dictator or autocrat he may aspire to be, but he has not beaten down the lower courts totally yet. His preoccupation with vengeance, punishment, and greed for power and wealth, only for him and those loyal to him, qualifies him as a "mob boss" the best. His corruption is in your face and in the open. The problem with tagging him as a mob boss is he does not look like one; he just acts like one. The failure of the GOP-dominated Congress and the 6 Trump loyal justices on the Supreme Court who have not put the brakes on him, who have approved his power grabs, are this political mobster's enablers.
July 2020