One of the dilemmas of politics is that when it comes to public opinion of Biden v Trump, it looks like, given the moment, it is 46% v 46 percent, but on certain public policy issues, the GOP polling is at best around 40% and below. That is true whether the question is about abortion, Obamacare,, and democracy v autocracy/dictatorship. The wind is in Biden's sails on all three because all three will affect individuals' lives for the following reasons: keeping women in control of their lives instead of a government telling them, giving people a chance to protest, make their case, and be heard and then counted in a fair and free vote, and a feeling of security that they can continue to afford health care for themselves and their family, thanks to Obamacare and whether they depend on it now or may see a need in the future.
Trump is on the wrong side of those three issues, bent on consolidating his appeal to the 40% with his newest call for ending Obamacare. Why Trump's vow to repeal Obamacare is a gift to Democrats (axios.com) https://www.kff.org/interactive/kff-health-tracking-poll-the-publics-views-on-the-aca
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/trump-vows-to-replace-obamacare-with-his-own-alternative/ar-AA1m1tQH?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=98071fbc094c42be8ac2b13479f19510&ei=24We have heard that from the GOP the day Obamacare became law. They have this great plan which somehow never materializes. Just trust them, they say. Then comes Trump. Trust him, he says. Ok. Show us how and what. Otherwise it is the usual GOP BS, only you make it your brand as well.
It is also true about democracy v autocracy. About 18% of Americans want an autocracy; another 22% lean that way or are tolerant. That 40% either favor or don't care whether we have a democracy or actually support a dictatorship like Trump is promising is frightening, but not a majority either. However, 48% of Republicans favor authoritarianism. The good news is that there is a 20% tilt for continuing democracy as we know it, and there are some of the 20% of fellow travelers favoring autocracy are not that solid. https://www.prri.org/research/threats-to-american-democracy-ahead-of-an-unprecedented-presidential-election/.
So far as abortion is concerned, every red state permitting something similar to Roe V Wade to be voted on has supported choice. Few US adults support full abortion bans, an AP-NORC poll finds | AP News
The economy and Biden's economics are praised by the experts but not by the voters, and we have no idea what they will be the mood a year from now. Making a positive case for the economy has been a bust. Biden delivers, ok, but voters still resent prices have not returned to pre-covid, and interest rates are a killer. Border security is an unresolved issue. The answer is that Biden and the Democrats need to make their case for re-election to stop Trump and MAGA to protect choice, democracy, and their health care for now, as it appears Trump has the GOP nomination sewed up.
From the Washington Post article, here's why the legal issue facing Trump has little or no resonance with Republicans. 4 out 5 think it is political persecution: "Despite the obvious evidence for Trump’s wrongdoing — the Capitol riot, the documents found at Mar-a-Lago, the attempts to overturn the election results in Georgia — most Americans told YouGov pollsters in August that they viewed the charges as intended to block Trump politically. About 4 in 5 Republicans held that view." The significance of these trials is that they fortify fear of a second-term Trump. Still, the worst-case scenario is that they will not be resolved and will be slow walked to after November 2024 and fence-sitting voters will be left in ignorance about whether the Big Lie was truth or fantasy. It is central to the democracy v dictatorship issue but not fatal because Trump's recent words about his future plans are plenty to make the case: he is a wannabe dictator. MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Trump is running on a platform to become a dictator, updated 12/11/2023
Here's the problem: National polls mean little if they are not overwhelmingly widespread. They must be more than majority opinion in a specific number of swing states to affect the outcome of the electoral college, which, right now, tilts the election to exaggerate the impact of rural, conservative states. The bad news is that the electoral college system causes outcomes that do not favor the majority of public opinion to be the winners. For that reason, for any issue to determine the outcome of the presidential race, public opinion must be in the 60% range in favor of continuing democracy or pro-choice, for example. 50-50 split is not good enough. Why fewer American voters matter in presidential elections - The Washington Post The presidential elections may be rigged, but they are rigged in favor of Trump and the GOP.. The Republican Electoral College Advantage | Cook Political Report s Why fewer American voters matter in presidential elections - The Washington Post The issues of abortion, democracy v dictatorship, and keeping Obamacare have that widespread and public opinion-supported potential.
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A lot of Americans embrace Trump’s authoritarianism - The Washington Post
Trump Is an Authoritarian. So Are Millions of Americans - POLITICO
Americans are sleepwalking into a Trump dictatorship (msn.com)
Biden Attacks Trump, Treating Him as De Facto Republican Nominee (msn.com)
Few US adults support full abortion bans, an AP-NORC poll finds | AP News
https://www.kff.org/interactive/kff-health-tracking-poll-the-publics-views-on-the-aca/#?response=Favorable--Unfavorable&aRange=twoYear
Crime? not high on the Democrat's list, but a biggie among the GOP. Perhaps the reddest states should look in the mirror regarding gun rights. https://www.axios.com/2023/10/16/america-gun-deaths-crime-south
Almost a third of Americans still believe the 2020 election result was fraudulent (nbcnews.com)
Few US adults support full abortion bans, an AP-NORC poll finds | AP News
Per Huff Post, democracy extremely important in 2022: New Polling Shows Democracy Mattered In The 2022 Midterms | HuffPost Latest News
"Six in 10 voters cited protecting democracy as an extremely important reason that they decided to vote in November. This put the issue ahead of inflation (53%), abortion (47%) and crime (45%). When asked to choose the top two issues that motivated them to vote, 50% chose protecting democracy, second only to inflation at 55%.
These findings are largely in line with preelection surveys from The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CBS News, NBC News, Quinnipiac University Poll and the Grinnell College National Poll, as well as exit polling from The Associated Press, NBC News and CNN."
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