Perception is not reality, but perception is what counts in politics. Most think they themselves are doing OK, but it is the economy that is not. If the economy is so awful, why are consumers spending so much? J.D. Power-GlobalData Forecast November 2023 (yahoo.com) Biden has not yet found his messaging on the most significant current political dilemma. The answer may be: their jobs are secure so they feel safe to spend. US consumers feel good about their jobs but bad about the economy (qz.com) . Gas prices are down, as are so many consumer goods, but housing costs are not. The major problem is that prices have not returned to pre-covid ones fresh in their memories and never will. Biden has so far not come to grips with this either, trying to convince voters they are deluding themselves. That clearly has not worked.
There is a shift in priorities of American values some polls are detecting. Personal financial status has become even more important recently, eclipsing even some cultural ones. The importance of money and personal finances in people's lives, per a recent poll, may even be eclipsing even religious and cultural concerns. Measuring Trends in Americans' Personal Values (gallup.com)
Instead, consumers think the economy will get worse. That attitude will be hard to change when the Fed keeps saying it will raise interest rates again. One question still on the table is whatever happened to the predicted recession? It did not happen. Why? Shouldn't Biden get credit for this? One answer is that Biden supported the team at the Fed, which has managed inflation competently. The downside to that is that high interest rates are not popular, either. In any case, it's complicated.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/inflation-rate-july-2023-how-high-low-will-interest-rates-rise-again-rcna99015
The question is what can Biden take credit for, honestly? One thing is certain, demagogue Trump has never had a problem with spouting off dishonestly taking credit when credit is not due and damning an opponent when results happen when his target has events beyond control.
Until Biden can devise better messaging, he can only hope to show that Trump would worsen things in so many other areas of their lives, including the economy. He just has not done the economy part. Two recent articles that provide the macro facts (I'm ok, but the economy is not), Biden has got to get it down to the micro, personal lives. I know we are not there yet, and in some areas, it is already better. Jobs paying more than inflation are plentiful, and inflation is down from 10% to 3 (or so), but we will never get there if Trump is the next president.
The theory is the price at the pump is the best measure and with prices down. why hasn't Biden made more about this? True, a president is at the mercy of the oil cartels for price per barrel, but if prices go up and the get the blame, why not take the credit or make a big deal of it when prices go down? The least Biden could do is remind voters about prices without taking credit for it. Not a peep from the White House, however. Trump would do is raise prices on all with his high tariffs, among some, his anti-union stance on wages and benefits and his refusal to give student loan relief some ideas. and his giving tax relief to the ultra-rich while continuing his fantasy of trickle-down, which hurt the vast middle class. "You may wish the economy was better, but Trump would make it worse" is going to have to be the best message for now, and he better be making it to reverse his slide at the polls.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/
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