We are no longer a nation that is a political 50-50 split; it is now 60-40 to 58-42 split: advantage Democrats

Common wisdom used to be this was a 50 /50 split in the American voters' opinion polls:..half for the GOP and half for Democrats.  That has shifted to about  58 percent to 60% for Democrats and 42 to 40 percent split in approval for the GOP. This is evident even in the 2025 data,study and it does not reflect the recent shift in Hispanic, independent, and young people's votes away from the GOP and MAGA. Today's polls may reflect the shift.  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/03/19/donald-trump-approval-rating/89177997007/

https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/54341-worsening-economic-outlook-donald-trump-iran-voting-march-13-16-2026-economist-yougov-poll

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZTtTtR21YM   recent ABC/Washington Post poll

This is a macro view, but it does not apply to every voting district..

 As the GOP loses ground. how much does the loyalty to the MAGA viewpoint play in the GOP. I would have thought it would have been higher than 50%, but that was the finding in a study. https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2025/02/24/majority-of-republicans-nationally-identify-as-maga-for-first-time-in-unity-poll.   The allegiance to MAGA is growing.  Nonetheless, the swing vote within the GOP is still large enough to make any rift significant.,  That does not mean it automatically translates into political power loss.  

 Support for one or the other side of this voter poll split is also specific to location and the number of Congressional districts, states, or electoral college votes, voting districts that have a record, demographic, and dominance of one side of the divide or another. What it does show is that whatever is considered a swing or near swing district will still determine outcome in both November 2026 midterms and in the 2028 presidential race..  The rest of the voting districts are set in concrete. The electoral college laws are also responsible for this imbalance, which has resulted in nearly every presidential election showing a larger popular vote for Democrats than the winning GOP candidate. The advantage favors the GOP, and Democrats must outperform them with the popular vote. Not every voter who contributed to the 60% non Trump vote wlll vote for Democrats. They could opt to stay at home on election day.

Three factors may influence the remainder of the year. GOP/Trump policies that threaten previous Hispanic voters with ICE cruelty, the struggles of young people saddled with student debt, and AI as an entry-level job opportunity killer. The other is voter suppression of perceived opponent groups:, ICE agents at polling places, and making it difficult for those who are large numbers unfriendly to the GOP, particularly women, such as the SAVE act attempts to do.  Disillusionment by independents and non-MAGA with Trump's promises and failures to make good on them is a third.  This one may be growing thanks to his damage to affordability and entanglement in foreign wars, such as Iran.

The SAVE Act is now being debated in the Senate and is predicted to go down in defeat, even if Trump vetoes the version that survives and needs a 60-vote count to override his veto. Senators, even in some safe states, are not sure who will be hurt more: women or their own, poorer, undereducated rural  White voter base.

The current version of the SAVE proposal makes it hard for those they see as their opponents to vote, but it has a serious backfire in it that makes even GOP Senators uneasy unless they come from ruby red states. The SAVE Act places a burden on women that most men do not have. It requires many women to jump through additional hoops in order to be able to vote. Married or divorced women have to tie their accepted picture ID to their birth certificate to make name changes via marriage or other situations. This will certainly hurt Democrats, but that also will hurt the MAGA base, which is mostly rural, poor, White,  working class, and with low education levels, because they too have to cough up money to get the right photo ID and the accepted documentation of their birth and make it through those administrative hurdles. Elderly in both parties will be hurt, but less in blue higher-income states because they are more likely to have a US passport, which is accepted proof of citizenship/and name conformity. Elderly voters usually trend heavily toward the GOP.  Because of the cost involved in getting a certified birth certificate, passports, or a conforming ID, this can be seen as an unconstitutional poll tax, but that will have to play out in the courts.

Why pick on the women voters anyway?

Today, a 56% majority of women identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, while 37% affiliate with or lean toward the GOP. up 4 percentage points since 2015 and is at one of its highest points since 1992. Among men, there has been less recent change: 48% of men identify with the GOP, and 44% are Democrats or lean Democratic, a long-standing divide. Both gender and educational gaps are expanding.  https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/03/20/wide-gender-gap-growing-educational-divide-in-voters-party-identification/