The Russian connection in the White House and the 2016 campaign: a coming together of many elements

This posting was also carried as a column in editions of the Sky Hi Daily News, March 29, 2017

The explosive revelation by FBI Director James Comey before the House Intelligence Committee March 20 that Donald Trump’s campaign’s  Russian connections had been under investigation by the FBI since last July raises many questions.  While there is yet no  proof publicly provided that Trump  or his close associates were  in collusion with Russian agents, there are enough smoke  plumes coming together that hang like one big cloud over the White House.  Whether there is fire in that smoke is the question.

Those smoke plumes  represent three elements coming together at once:  Trump’s  long time desire to do business in Russia, those close to him and friendly to Russia during the campaign and into the White House, and an electorate that was weary of foreign entanglements and  NATO obligations and who cared more about their own domestic agenda than Russian connections. Those political currents were expressed in Trump’s  America First  or Make America Great Again sloganeering, but they also played into Russian foreign policy aspirations to move into the Baltics and the Balkans.

The influence of Russia on the 2016 election is also slowly being revealed  or alleged by media fed by leaks from whistle blowers  within the US government or in foreign dossiers. A concerted cyber attack from Russia  to infuence the 2016 election in the form of planted fake news stories, hacking data bases and  leaking  transcripts unflattering to Hillary Clinton, were  confirmed by Comey’s testimony before the House committee.

It is possible Donald Trump himself turns out to be innocent of any collusion. Due to his business dealings,  he was already kindly disposed to Russia and President Vladimir Putin well before the campaign. During Trump's presidential campaign, few thought he would win, incluing Trump himself.. His bromance with Putin and supporting Russian foreign policy initiatives could be attributed to promoting his business opportunities there with the power that be. That made Trump fertile ground on which others of close ties to Russia could plant pro Russian foreign policy seeds when it became clear Trump had a chance to be a viable candidate..

How likely is it  pro Russian sympathizers in his campaign  or transistion or White House staff influenced his  positions on foreign policy similar to Russia’s or influence the GOP platform?  His campaign staff , his cabinet and  White House advisers, were full of Russian friendlies .  His campaign chairman from May to mid August , Paul Manafort, had provided paid services to the now deposed Putin confident and former president of the Ukraine, and he signed a contract, for millions per year 2006-2009 with an oligarch close to Putin to promote Putin's interest in the world . Manafort also was also paid  as a consultant to the Montenegro government Russia was influencing. Roger Stone is suspected of communicating with Russian intelligence in cyber matters. Carter Page,active the the Russian energy sector and an open apologist for Putin, was a campaign hanger on. Two members of his cabinet have Russian ties. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, was Exxon president and got official recognition for his friendship with Russia. Trump’s old friend and new Commerce Secretary, is Wilbur Ross, major investor in a  Cyprus bank known for money laundering  for Russian clients .   His constant campaign companion, and later  briefly national security advisor ,Gen Mike Flynn ,had  been paid to promote Russian state sponsored television.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-trumps-financial-ties-to-russia-and-his-unusual-flattery-of-vladimir-putin/2016/06/17/dbdcaac8-31
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http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03/paul-manafort-vladimir-putin-russia
(AP story)

http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/27/investing/wilbur-ross-commerce-secretary-confirmation-senate/index.html

https://www.thenation.com/article/mccains-kremlin-ties/

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/the-mystery-of-trumps-man-in-moscow-214283

http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/20/politics/kfile-roger-stone-wikileaks-claims/index.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/manaforts-plan-greatly-benefit-putin-government-100315372--politics.html?

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/02/22/Russia-involved-in-attempted-coup-Montenegro-prosecutor-says/1581487767036/

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/20/us/politics/intelligence-committee-russia-donald-trump.html?_r=0

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/03/20/comey-confirms-fbi-probe-russia-meddling-in-us-race-possible-links-with-trump-camp.html

Trump's foreign policy: Make Russia Great Again?

Donald Trump in the recent "Commander in Chief" forum called Vladimir Putin a better leader than President Obama.  That bromance between Trump and Putin is more than just a matter of flattery and egos.  It has real repercussions for future conduct of foreign policy if Trump is elected. 

 Trump supports foreign policies that dovetail neatly with Russia's,, excusing the Russian grab of the Crimea, going

along with the stealth invasion of Eastern Ukraine, calling NATO obsolete as a military defense alliance, and fuzzy about whether Russia's ally Assad in Syria must go, None of those policies are in America's or our allies' interests. Only when it comes to fighting ISIS do Russia and the US have much in common, but even then the devil will be when any peace agreements are negotiated, as Russia will be firm to protect Assad.

When Trump calls Putin a better leader than Obama, his definition of "better" in context seems to be a popularity contest,since he cites Putin's style of leadership that rates a high 85% approval . This compares with Pres. Obama's current 58% approval rating, better than the highest rating Ronald Reagan had also his last year in office, per Gallup.

If popularity is the measure of strong, certainly Obama would have been much stronger if he also controlled media the way Vladimir Putin did.  His media critics were mysteriously killed or silenced. Most of competing oligarchs are in jail or in exile.  Putin has been able to bring great popular approval from a country feeling the loss of power  and control of territory after the Cold War and glasnost,, and using oil revenues to make their consumer economy flourish.

While Putin's leadership style seems to work for Russians, it is a mockery of a liberal democracy as we know it in America, which respects freedom of the press and speech and an independent judiciary, among other attributes.

Putin governs like an autocrat. Trump would like to be one, too, often proclaiming that in the first week of office he would do such and such .He often appears absolutely ignorant of the US Constitution, separation of powers, and other restraints our founding fathers wrote into that document to make sure we would never have an emperor or king governing with tyrannical might or divine right.

 Most recently Trump  vowed to purge generals that were "rubble" in the Obama administration and installing generals who were known to be supportive of him from whom he would take advice in shaping mid- east policy, though he "knows ISIS better than the generals". That is a trick Putin could pull off since he has virtually eliminated opponents. Trump would run up against Senate confirmation of the highest ranking generals and rank protection rules of those below, so that we might be spared that kind of self-verifying advice from pre-screened yes men.

Trump likes to boast he knows how to negotiate, but could he ever drive a hard bargain with Russia in negotiations over differences?. He seems more prone to simply agree with Russian foreign policy in all of its aspects. Trump's foreign policy is more  like Make Russia Great again. He just objects "to their system" while not understanding how Putin rose to power, and yet he embraces the end result of being a "strong man".

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/12/barack-obamas-soaring-approval-numbers-are-very-good-news-for-hillary-clinton/

http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-approval-rating-trump-hillary-2016-8