Showing posts with label Comey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Comey. Show all posts

Friday, February 2, 2018

Is Donald Trump considering taking the 5th?


“No person shall….. be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself,..”  The 5th Amendment of the Constitution.
There is speculation on Morning Joe this morning that the game President Trump , Rep. Devin Nunes, and Speaker  Paul Ryan, are playing is to try to damage the FBI so badly, the President could even take the 5th if he is forced to be interviewed by the special prosecutor’s office.
Those who take the 5th only do so at their own peril since that is sometimes believed  by the public as an admission of  guilt. It is a risky move.  However, there are also other risky  moves: firing Special  Prosecutor  Robert  Mueller, for one, and even being interviewed by Mueller is another. By taking the 5th, Donald Trump might even be able to survive impeachment attempts if he can damage the FBI’s credibility enough.
With steps   recently  to  damage and discredit the FBI engineered by the White House, Trump’s  favored media, and loyal members of Congress, taking the 5th makes as much sense as a  strategy of  just  drumming up pretexts to fire Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Mueller.    I can see how this could  play out.  At the point Donald Trump takes the 5th if he is issued a Grand Jury subpoena,or refuses to be “interviewed” by the Special Counsel Robert Mueller , Mueller could release his report to the public without Trump’s interview/testimony  with enough  credible details that the case will be in the hands of voters in time for the November midterms.  The court of public opinion would become  the jury and vote, throwing the House  into the hands of a Democratic majority..  Trump would then be counting on his core base who will stand by their man as his firewall against a Senate vote to convict.  The House of Representatives can impeach, similar to an indictment, the Senate holds the trial, and  if a vote of two thirds of the Senate convicts, the President is removed from office. While the  GOP is the majority in the House, an impeachment process is likely not to begin, regardless of the Special Counsel’s report..
One  of the strategy  friends of the  Trump administration  have employed  to  damage the FBI’s credibility as been  to gin up  a case of anti Trump text messages between Agent  Peter Strzok and his girlfriend, but Strzok was removed from the investigation last summer. Another strategy is to paint Deputy AG Rod  Rosenstein as "not on his team". The pitch is the Strzok case is evidence every other FBI agent is politically corrupted.  The Nunes memo has been in the process  for some weeks  as another try   to paint  Rosenstein and the FBI as being  so inept , they  relied  solely on the Steele Dossier  in renewing a FISA warrant.  That would the justification for  removing Rosenstein  because of competence  and the FBI would be given another black eye.
If the Trump strategy  has been  try to fire Rod Rosenstein,  the Deputy Attorney General  who has the  power to fire Mueller,  and replacing him with a loyalist,   he may be having second thoughts.   There are enough members of the GOP in the Senate who have let  it be  known that  firing Mueller would lead to impeachment and conviction. Firing Rosenstein would  raise serious alarm bells., The Trump administration and Ryan have piously, deceptively contended that Nunes’ memo has nothing to do with the Russian investigation. Even House Majority Leader Paul Ryan yesterday said he had confidence in Rosenstein and Mueller, while backing up the release of the Nunes memo.

The  current issue before the White House is  how or whether Donald Trump should be “interviewed” by  Special Counsel Robert Mueller, under oath,  or not under oath, or under subpoena before the Grand Jury.  His verbosity, his record of bald face lying,  and lack of understanding of  the difference between punching back and obstruction of justice  has his legal team worrying he will commit perjury.   Mueller’s representatives and the White House are negotiating now when and how he will speak to Mueller. That explains, too,  why   the Trump media hypes  the line that Trump’s legal team  fears  he will walk into a “perjury trap”.  A perjury trap is challengeable because that refers to a  defined disallowed technique interrogators could use to trick him to lie and experienced prosecutors will not go there. Mueller is if anything one of the most experienced prosecutors in the US.

The irony of this is that the FBI and Director James Comey violated FBI rules to announce Hillary Clinton was under investigation for possible criminal abuse of classified documents in her emails. He did it twice, once just ten days before the 2016 election. Her poll numbers dipped and many believe that led to  her defeat.  What has also come to light that whatever Peter Strzok’s feelings about Hillary Clinton, he drafted the memo used by Comey to make those fatal disclosures that resulted in Trump’s win.  If the FBI was so slanted toward the Democrats and they were full of agents also inclined, they certainly did not act like it in 2016. https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/31/politics/strzok-fbi-comey-clinton-letter/index.html

http://time.com/5127815/donald-trump-rod-rosenstein-team/


Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Trump's war on the deep state sets dangerous precedents

In the President’s State of The  Union address January 30 there was an alarming  sentence: “ I call on the Congress to empower every Cabinet Secretary with the authority to reward good workers—and to remove Federal employees who undermine the public trust or fail the American people.” If the definition  “undermining  of public trust”means lack of credibility due to political bias against him, his  proposal sets some dangerous precedents.  There are  implications  for the impeachment process , endangering lasting public policies,  for undermining the rule of law, and  for preventing government corruption.
Trump has been on a crusade to fire those investigating him who he believes are not  loyal to him. Rumored In danger of being fired are  Special Counsel Robert Mueller and his supervisor  Assistant Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. CNN reported Trump asked Rosenstein "if he was on his team".President Trump has already  fired  FBI director James Comey after he failed  to give him  a loyalty pledge and  Trump forced out Assistant FBI Director Andrew McCabe after asking for whom he voted in 2016 and noting he had a wife running for office as a Democrat who received Democratic party campaign money.


President Trump may have a right to have  loyalists in key supervisory positions  of his executive branch, as he did in private business,  but what he does not understand is  that in government that  right does not transfer to appointing or controlling those who are investigating him for potential crimes. It is instead  viewed as an attempt to thwart the investigation for his own benefit. That is the core of “obstruction of justice” charges that brought down Richard Nixon and could be levied against Donald Trump by the special counsel’s  office. Those same charges could also could be cited by a post 2018 Democratic controlled  House  to impeach (indict) him and it could  motivate an outraged Senate to convict him.


This line  in the address  is also likely  a strategy Trump advocates to destroy the “deep state”, a cadre of lower level protected  civil servants, including even rank and file  FBI agents, who are not acting the way he wants them to. The "deep state' conspiracy theory gathered wings when FBI agent Peter Strzok's anti-Trump emails were revealed. Strzok was immediately reassigned last summer from the Russian connection investigation to Human Resources, but later it was also revealed that it was Strzok who had drafted a memo for FBI Director Comey that resulted in Comey announcing he had reopened the criminal investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails, an action that many believe resulted in Trump winning since her polls crashed as a result. Enough for that conspiracy theory and the deep state. Currently,  the criteria for firing government employees protected by  civil service regulations is mostly  whether they are incompetent or fail to perform duties or committed a crime or failed to observe rules. A political bias could fall into the definition umbrella of undermining public trust unless “Public trust” is not carefully defined.
His proposal could make  lower ranking federal employees having political views that differ from him a firing offense.


Andrew Jackson is credited fathering  the spoils system by rewarding those who supported him with jobs and other plums. So corrupt and widespread  was that practice, various  civil service laws were put into effect in the last century  that protected a large group of lower level government  employees from being fired for solely  political reasons  by defining  what constituted proper cause.


The first step taken by any anti-democratic wannabe autocrat is to take total control of  law enforcement agencies by replacing them top to bottom  with his loyalists. The semblance of legality continues, but the practice of the rule of law is destroyed allowing the autocrat to get away with crimes or corruption. Trump  has indicated his belief any number of times when he fumed  that  the Department of Justice headed by the Attorney General Jeff Sesssions should serve him instead of recusing himself from the Russian investigation.


If Democrats  should control the White House after  2020 elections  and  if the criteria for firing civil servants is conforming to a fuzzy definition of public trust based on political loyalties, then Democrats could use the new precedent to undermine  and overturn what the Trump administration had accomplished by ousting Trump loyal  public employees.  What goes around comes around.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-s-gripes-against-mccabe-included-wife-s-politics-comey-n842161

http://www.newsweek.com/fbi-agent-treasonous-trump-helped-draft-hillary-clinton-2016-796699

https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/31/politics/donald-trump-rod-rosenstein-december-meeting/index.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/i-expect-loyalty-trump-told-comey-according-to-written-testimony/2017/06/07/46413298-4bab-1

Friday, January 26, 2018

Right wing conspiracy theories take a licking; updated to reflect McCabe's "resignation"


Update: January 31, 2018: Strzok, the FBI agent who is referenced below, and who was caught texting anti-Trump messages and taken off the Russian connection investigation, was the one who drafted charges for his director, James Comey, that materially helped Trump to get elected because it reopened the Clinton email investigation before the election. http://www.newsweek.com/fbi-agent-treasonous-trump-helped-draft-hillary-clinton-2016-796699

A version of this was published in the Sky Hi News January 30-31 2018, but did not contain the updates reflecting the importance of McCabe being pressured by the White House to resign nor the GOP members of the House Intelligence Committee voting to release a memo that contained classified information. The blog posting below addresses these. https://www.skyhinews.com/news/muftic-gop-conspiracy-theories-take-a-licking/

I am a great fan of Dan Brown’s books, The DaVinci Code  being the most famous.   His novels  are a delight for those who love conspiracy theories.  They are  full of secret societies using obscure codes to conspire against some power center or other. There is a difference between fact and the  fiction of conspiracy theories in real life  and keeping those two  straight is a challenge in today’s partisan media that promotes such theories.
The last chapter of the Russian connection novel has not been written, but there is an overt attempt by some to write the  story’s ending full of  conspiracy theories. Both the GOP Congress, Donald Trump’s  supportive media,  and the Trump administration attempted  to convince us, the voting public,  that  the fiction  they create is political reality as part of  their coordinated campaign  to destroy the FBI’s credibility.
Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC)  claimed the proof  of some FBI conspiracy society is a text messages sent between  FBI agent  Peter Strzok and an FBI  lawyer girl  friend. The text ciriticized Trump and references  a conspiracy society. Were they joking? Only the context could tell. . Trump media went ballistic  claiming more conspiracies because the texts were missing, but Thursday the Justice Department found them.  Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) claimed he had an  informant with knowledge of some secret society meetings  of FBI agents who  are  planning a coup. Johnson walked back his claim when challenged to give the informant’s name, times, place, date of,  meetings.
Another nail in the coffin of the anti-Trump secret society conspiracy was that if Strzok was partisan, he certainly did not act like it. UPDATE: Update: Strzok, , was the one who drafted charges for his director, James Comey, that materially helped Trump to get elected because it reopened the Clinton email investigation before the election. http://www.newsweek.com/fbi-agent-treasonous-trump-helped-draft-hillary-clinton-2016-796699

Trump ultra loyalist Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) was circulating a memo to  GOP House Intelligence members  charging  the FBI’s misconduct in seeking a FISA warrant. Nunes received a slap down by the Department of Justice  as”extrordinarily  reckless”, harmful to US security , in releasing the memo since it contained classified information. Russian bots were encouraging the release as was Trump TV. ,
The GOP members of the House Intelligence Committee voted Monday to release the "memo" and classified information, as well as conduct a full on investigation of the investigators.
Should  Special Counsel Robert Mueller find convincing evidence of “high crimes and misdemeanors” , including obstruction of justice,  that result  in serious attempts to impeach the President, Trump and his backers’  defense  will be anything Mueller reports should be  discounted because his findings have been corrupted and  contaminated by anti-Trump FBI agents engaged in  anti-Trump conspiracies.
It is no small  coincidence that also FBI Deputy Director Andrew  McCabe and others in the FBI have come under fire from the GOP since they are the ones who have copies of the FBI Director James Comey’s contemporary notes of his  conversations with Donald Trump that included how  the President tried to get him to pledge loyalty and to go lightly on an investigation of Mike Flynn. The notes may not be the Nixon’s tapes, but they are the next  best similar  evidence Trump tried to obstruct the FBI’s Russian connection investigation when he fired Comey.

One  GOP charge  is that Comey’s  then deputy, Andrew McCabe, influenced  Comey to conclude that there was no criminal wrongdoing in the Clinton email investigation because there was not enough evidence to prove her intent.    Those two  FBI agents in high positions in  the investigations into the Russian connection, Strzok and  and McCabe, . will not be able to influence Mueller’s  final report anyway since Strzok was moved to Human Resources last summer and McCabe has announced he was quitting the FBI
Monday because of the President's pressure. Who is the next victim of the President's purge of the FBI in his attempt to stop investigators from investigating him?

Ironically, Comey had appeared biased against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Twice Comey broke FBI rules causing Clinton's poll numbers to drop when he announced Hillary Clinton was under criminal investigation for misuse of emails..   At the same time, Comey kept it a secret per rules the FBI also had the Trump campaign’s Russian connection  under investigation.

UPDATE: Andrew McCabe has announced he is leaving the FBI earlier than he had planned.. This may cost him money if he .leaves before retirement date that would give
him benefits. Whether he left in protest of the partisan attacks or left on his own steam a few weeks early just to clear the air , or was forced out by the attacks, is not known yet. However, Comey is gone (fired for not pledging allegiance to the President), now McCabe, and next Rosenstein, and then Mueller? This is a virtual slow motion Saturday night massacre by other means in progress, as the Administration and the GOP coordinate actions to obstruct Special Counsel Mueller's investigation by getting rid of the prosecution leadership looking into possible conspiracy, with Russians to influence the 2016 election, obstructing justice, and money laundering. by Donald Trump and or his associates and family. Obviously, both the GOP and the administration fear Mueller may
find something impeachment worthy to launch such a concerted effort.
Hopefully this spurs on attempts in Congress to protect Mueller by requiring a panel of judges to
review first or ads a sense of urgency by Mueller to get his final report done before he is fired.
Nixon tried to obstruct justice by firing those investigating him about his role in Watergate.
. First he fired Special Counsel Archibald Cox. that led to the resignation of AG Elliott Richardson,and Deputy AG William Ruckelshaus, and it ultimately did not save him, but his attempt was known as the Saturday night massacre.
In any authoritarian country, this would be known as a purge and would be how a wannabe dictator would undermine the rule of law, taking over enforcement agencies which he considers his personal tools of power.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/30/us/politics/secret-memo-mueller-russia-investigation.html



https://www.yahoo.com/news/skullduggery-episode-3-vote-214734908.html?soctrk=gcm&soc_src=5e53fef9-5fa4-39a8-abc4-01c97ce294c4&.tsrc=notification-brknews

 http://politi.co/2noqtch






http://www.businessinsider.com/release-the-memo-campaign-russia-linked-twitter-accounts-2018-1


Friday, May 12, 2017

Is it time to talk impeachment?

Published in all editions of the Sky Hi News  5/19/17
The goings on in Washington, D.C. this past week with the firing of FBI Director James Comey have rekindled the talk of impeachment of a president. Often  in media discussions there have been historical references to the Watergate Scandal, a potentially similar situation , 1972-1974, it resulted in the resignation of Pres. Richard Nixon.. The issue of obstruction of justice could be what the cases have in common.
Unlike Watergate where an actual crime had been committed for which Nixon was charged with a cover up and  obstructing justice,   this year there  has been no  evidence presented to the public that a crime had been committed by a US person. All intelligence agencies do  agree the Russians had interfered in the 2016 elections.   The Trump administration is leaving the impression that it is covering up something and trying to end the Russian investigation quickly by intimidation with threats of and/ or firing and replacing those leading serious investigations with his preferred
picks.. .
.
For those of us who remember  Watergate and the resignation of Nixon in face of certain impeachment,  the political atmosphere  has the same feel now as it did then in the early stages of Watergate .  The public is on the outside looking in and trying to connect dots, wondering   whether there is no there there as Trump claims.   Or is there is a possibility there is evidence not yet uncovered that could lead to impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump himself? Before impeachment, convincing evidence   must be found that he is  culpable of high crimes and misdemeanors , including obstructing justice by misleading or quashing an investigation. That was the first article of impeachment which brought Nixon down.

Whether or not Trump tried to intimidate FBI Director Comey at a dinner or whether the conversation constituted obstruction of justice sufficient to impeach ,the timing of Comey’s firing  is enough to raise suspicion that there is something damaging there yet to be discovered that could implicate Donald Trump himself. The action of firing Comey is intimidating by itself  to  investigators. It sends the message "if you  show you are not on Trump’s side, you can get fired ".. The investigation last week was at a critical juncture. Grand jury and congressional bodies  investigating the Russian connection began  issuing subpoenas and a report from the Financial Crimes unit of the Treasury department was due to the Senate intelligence committee concerning money laundering,  Trump had already replaced Preet Bharara,  the  federal  district  prosecutor .who had been investigating US and Russian  money laundering activities. The head of the FBI was fired just as he was asking for resources to expand the investigation.

The political reality is that Republicans  control whether impeachment proceedings will happen, since they have the majority in both Houses of Congress and the House initiates impeachment (Indictment) whille the Senate holds the trial and convicts with a 2/3 vote.  The Senate approves the appointments of the Attorney Generaland the FBI. going forward. The Deputy Attorney General , Rod Rosenstein, has now appointed a special counsel to conduct an investigation of the Russian connection, taking the control out of the hands of both the Justice Department and the White House. The Justice Department is the only entity with the power to appoint a special prosecutor.

Who may be other participants in this historical drama?  As in Watergate, it will be a free, courageous  media  and   whistle  blowing Deep Throats  that can contribute their findings.  Voters still wield power at the ballot box with the ability to change the majority in the House in 2018..

__________________________________________________________________________________

What seems to me most likely is that Trump's business dealings with Russia, loans and investments in his businesses, may have compromised Trump himself, opening him to blackmail.  That could also explain his “bromance” with Putin and his campaign advocacy for policies in synch with  Russia’s, denial that there was any Russian interference in 2016 elections in spite of all intelligence agencies testifying to the contrary. It also explains why he as taking been great pains to keep his tax filings secret.

________________________________________________________________________________
Rachel Madow in her MSNBC show Thursday, May 11, speculated that either Mike Flynn or Paul Manfort could be "flipped" by the FBI to become witnesses of any of Trump's collusion with Russia during the campaign.. They would be in a position to know if such happened.

James Clapper on Jake Tapper's interview Sunday, May 24: "our instutions are under assault by Trump", referring also to checks and balances, and he said he did not even know the FBI had an investigation into the Russian connection or campaign collusion in 2016 until FBI Director Comey verified it before the House committee March 22. In his position of DNI, the focus was not on that issue so he could not attest to whether it was true or not.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/11/us/politics/trump-comey-firing

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/11/us/politics/trump-comey-firing

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/333081-trump-warns-comey-better-hope-there-are-no-tapes-of-our-meeting

https://www.senate.gov/reference/resources/pdf/98-806.pdf


http://www.history.com/topics/watergate


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/10/21/17-intelligence-agencies-russia-behind-hacking/92514592/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/financial-crimes-monitor-to-share-records-in-trump-russia-probe-1494625140

http://www.newyorker.com/business/adam-davidson/the-senate-starts-to-look-at-trumps-businesses

http://www.factcheck.org/2017/05/trumps-nothing-see-spin/

Since so much of the news reports about Watergate dribbled out for 2 and a half years, as I lived through those times, I did not fully grasp the significance of the scandal untill I put it all together by reading the book All the President's Men by the investigative reporters who blew upen and reported it. The movie based on the book I found to be a very accurate recounting as desribed in the book by the same name, For those who want a greater understanding, required reading would be the book,

All the President's Men

by Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein
avaailable on Amazon in a variety of devices and in paper.

and the movie based on the book. it can be streamed with a subscription on Amazon.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-73-back-independent-probe-russian-election-interference-n750161




Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Firing Comey: the mother of all political bombs and an attack on democracy

For whatever reason Trump said he fired Comey, the effect was it could possibly quash the Russian connection investigation that could have been damaging to the administration. .The stench is overwhelming because of the timing .and Trump is acting like a tin-pot dictator.. The rule of law is once again being tossed into the trash pile and no matter to what party one belongs, the basic tenant of our Democracy is under attack. The independence of government entities that could provide independent investigations of the Russian connection has been undermined as Trump purges everyone that could possibly implicate him or his associates.

This is the mother of all political bombs. The fallout is not yet known, but it will not be minor. It impacts both the rule of law and the checks and balances in our Constitution and will go down as a major historical event in our country's history and will determine the course of the Trump presidency.
I am no fan of Comey and he did contribute to Clinton's loss...but the Russian issue now becomes part of the entire picture. Comey's "mistakes" were bi-partisan...harming both Clinton and Trump. The two biggest issues , the Clinton emails and the Russian connection/meddling in the 2016 election are combined into one.

Now who will take over the FBI and will he pursue the Russian connection with integrity.? Congress needs to make sure the investigation to go on and get it into the hand of a special independent prosecutor. Had the investigation gotten too close to finding the damning evidence of the Russian connection? . Now for the special prosecutor.. Heads up.: The President appoints the attorney general (who has recused himself from the Russian issue,though not sure he has recused himself from the Clinton issue), so now the deputy attorney general would appoint the special counsel or prosecutor., if he has the guts to stand up to Trump. Nixon, by the way, fired the special prosecutor. We, people of a , democracy, are not out of the woods, yet, even if a special prosecutor is appointed. The independence and integrity of the FBI is now open to question as is the Jusice Department as Trump purges all those who do not march to his tune. and to divert and thwart investigations of the Russian connection, claiming there is no there there.

The Democrats do not have enough votes in the Senate to force the establishment of an independent prosecutor. A few good GOP men and women are needed to do that, but even then, the independence of a prosecutor appointed by the same Department of Justice person who crafted the Comey firing letter is also in question. The entire burden of any faith in an independent investigation now falls on those GOP senators with the guts to join with the Democrats to find the independent person to conduct the investigative function.

Firing the acting attorney general and now the director of the FBI in the middle of the investigation into the Trump campaign's Russian connection is raising more questions. Sen Chuck Schumer (D NY) pointed out that the Clinton error on the part of Comey that Trump used as an excuse to fire Comey has very suspicious timing since that reason could have been used at the end of January, but is not making as much sense now now. That Trump had praised Comey to the rafters after he disclosed that Clinton's emails were again under scrutiny ten days before the November 16 election, probably reassuring Trump's election, shows an unexplained reversal. If the theory is that Comey was getting close to finding the Russian connection that implicated Trump himself, and that was the real motivation for the timing,
makes more sense.. Comey was scheduled to address a Senate committee in an open session within the next day. Shortly before that that, Comey refused to rule out that Trump was an object of investigation by the FBI in a recent open Senate committee hearing. This contradicts Trump's assertion that Comey had told him the FBI investigtation did not involve him. Perhpas new evidence was found after Comey told Trump he was off the hook.
The unanswered questions. What new evidence could have the FBI found? Would it have been Trump himself actual coordinating with the Russians during the 2016 campaign (aka treason) or that Trump told a lie about his business dealings with the Russians? Was money laundering or financial crimes were involved because a recent request to the Treasury department showed FBI investigators pursuing that angle? Or was Trump himself "compromised", open to blackmail by the Russians? The FBI viewed the investigation as Russian activities that involved espionage (counter intelligence) but not criminal activity, so it is not just matters of lying in sworn testimony or failure to file disclosure of being a foreign agent or failure to fill out a tax return correctly. Or is there something else? This is the time to get Trump's tax returns he has worked so hard to conceal, if the latter is a tree the FBI was barking up. An important clue may be in that.

The next morning after the Comey firing, deputy press secretary, Sarah Sanders, flatly stated that the firing of Comey had nothing to do with the Russian connection, because thre was nothing to the story that Trump had a Russian connection.
If there is no there there, then independent investigations should prove thaose negatives and Trump would be exonerated. So why is Trump and his spokespeple so anxious to declare there is no reason for the investigations to take place.

Since most of the investigations are still in its infancy stages, and Comey verified that the investigation included all actors in the Trump campaign, and not ruling out the President was being investigated that a request the day before was to the financial crims section of the Treasury department, that a grand jury investigation is on going and just issued subpoenas, that an ethics report of the Inspector Genral is not due until next year but is on-going, that the Senate and House have numerous investigations on-going, then that assertion there is no there there holds no water.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/watergate/articles/102173-2.htm

http://www.history.com/news/ask-history/what-was-the-saturday-night-massacre

http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/fbi/332670-grand-jury-subpoenas-issued-in-fbi-russia-probe-report


Wednesday, March 22, 2017

The Russian connection in the White House and the 2016 campaign: a coming together of many elements


This posting was also carried as a column in editions of the Sky Hi Daily News, March 29, 2017

The explosive revelation by FBI Director James Comey before the House Intelligence Committee March 20 that Donald Trump’s campaign’s  Russian connections had been under investigation by the FBI since last July raises many questions.  While there is yet no  proof publicly provided that Trump  or his close associates were  in collusion with Russian agents, there are enough smoke  plumes coming together that hang like one big cloud over the White House.  Whether there is fire in that smoke is the question.

Those smoke plumes  represent three elements coming together at once:  Trump’s  long time desire to do business in Russia, those close to him and friendly to Russia during the campaign and into the White House, and an electorate that was weary of foreign entanglements and  NATO obligations and who cared more about their own domestic agenda than Russian connections. Those political currents were expressed in Trump’s  America First  or Make America Great Again sloganeering, but they also played into Russian foreign policy aspirations to move into the Baltics and the Balkans.

The influence of Russia on the 2016 election is also slowly being revealed  or alleged by media fed by leaks from whistle blowers  within the US government or in foreign dossiers. A concerted cyber attack from Russia  to infuence the 2016 election in the form of planted fake news stories, hacking data bases and  leaking  transcripts unflattering to Hillary Clinton, were  confirmed by Comey’s testimony before the House committee.

It is possible Donald Trump himself turns out to be innocent of any collusion. Due to his business dealings,  he was already kindly disposed to Russia and President Vladimir Putin well before the campaign. During Trump's presidential campaign, few thought he would win, incluing Trump himself.. His bromance with Putin and supporting Russian foreign policy initiatives could be attributed to promoting his business opportunities there with the power that be. That made Trump fertile ground on which others of close ties to Russia could plant pro Russian foreign policy seeds when it became clear Trump had a chance to be a viable candidate..

How likely is it  pro Russian sympathizers in his campaign  or transistion or White House staff influenced his  positions on foreign policy similar to Russia’s or influence the GOP platform?  His campaign staff , his cabinet and  White House advisers, were full of Russian friendlies .  His campaign chairman from May to mid August , Paul Manafort, had provided paid services to the now deposed Putin confident and former president of the Ukraine, and he signed a contract, for millions per year 2006-2009 with an oligarch close to Putin to promote Putin's interest in the world . Manafort also was also paid  as a consultant to the Montenegro government Russia was influencing. Roger Stone is suspected of communicating with Russian intelligence in cyber matters. Carter Page,active the the Russian energy sector and an open apologist for Putin, was a campaign hanger on. Two members of his cabinet have Russian ties. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, was Exxon president and got official recognition for his friendship with Russia. Trump’s old friend and new Commerce Secretary, is Wilbur Ross, major investor in a  Cyprus bank known for money laundering  for Russian clients .   His constant campaign companion, and later  briefly national security advisor ,Gen Mike Flynn ,had  been paid to promote Russian state sponsored television.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-trumps-financial-ties-to-russia-and-his-unusual-flattery-of-vladimir-putin/2016/06/17/dbdcaac8-31
.  

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03/paul-manafort-vladimir-putin-russia
(AP story)





















Wednesday, July 6, 2016

More thoughts on the FBI decision not to recommend charging Hillary Clinton

More thoughts on the FBI decision:

The problem is showing intent. That is essential to criminal charges. The FBI could not find proof of intent. Without that they could not charge her. The shrill spokesperson for the RNC kept saying she intentionally set up her server to avoid scrutiny. That is exactly what the FBI could not prove. That she was careless is no doubt, but the strategy of the GOP to get her indicted was a true bust. An indictment would have gotten her out of the race. That she was careless did not rise to the criminal prosecution standard of gross negligence, just extremely careless.That was Comey's call and conclusion. Expect the GOP to question his judgment call. I spent 7 years as a white collar crime DA investigator and another 8 enforcing election contributions fraud...so I understand the differences. I also understand that DA's standard for prosecution is: can we win or at least probably win and they often refuse to file or indict.

How does one prove intent?  Some direct evidence such as statements of record is one way, but Comey did not find that evidence. Another is a pattern of behavior. Yes, some of the classified material was referred to in the chains of  emails, though if you listen carefully, she received those chains sent by others in the State Department to her, but it was not clear how many  marked classified Clinton initiated  herself or were sent to her by staff. The key is that those that were sent through the server were few compared to the whole body of the of the emails.  She may have lied if she had knowledge or memory of that, but that she knowlingly had initiated classified material  marked that way or was it that she had received them : Her intention was that she did not send it. That is difficult to determine intent because it is a very weak set of evidence to prove a pattern of behavior.  Even Rudy Giuliani who was first to criticize the Comey decision admitted, as a former prosecutor himself, intent is difficult to prove.  That gross negligence clause in that statute was a provision that had never been charged before, said others on MSNBC. . The question is why? Is it the fuzzy definition of it?  Last but not least, is there any evidence of the harm it did to national security, or was it just the potential of harm that could have been done, but was not.  That is a question for the CIA and we will never know that answer.

What the fallout is that Hillary Clinton survived to be the Democratic nominee and she received such a black eye, that it will still hurt her ability to gain the trust she seeks.  If she were running against anyone by Donald Trump, who fact checkers have designated the liar of 2015 and who keeps sticking his foot in his mouth with racist and chauvinistic comments, it would be more harmful.   

ps. Trump's response this morning: " Comey was bribed."   

It turns out that only 3 emails with portions marked classified (c) are in question about whether Clinton sent them.  Two were marked classified mistakingly.  That is 3 out of 30 thousand.  Comey once again thinks she did not know the "c" meant those lines in the email were classified. In those cases, the headings should have been marked classified, but the transmission did not have the required heading.  http://www.factcheck.org/2016/07/revisiting-clinton-and-classified-information/?utm_source=FactCheck.org&utm_campaign=dc7c61172e-FactCheck_Newsletter_7_9_20167_9_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_3294bba774-dc7c61172e-47897245