Political game playing in 2014. GOP issues may have diminishing returns.

Welcome to 2014 and the year of the mid term elections to the Senate and House in November.  There are enough trial balloons released  in media talk shows lately  laying out party game plans, we can get  an  idea of what to expect. 

2014 is  likely to be consumed by  mostly  posturing  and positioning. Any sound and fury  will signify very little earth shaking  legislative action between now  and 2016  since both sides have indicated they have dug in with their respective hard line  approaches   The budget deal has already been struck. Only the debt ceiling debate looms which will be mostly a vehicle for both political parties to rally their bases.

Expect the Democrats to go on the offensive to propose tackling  the widening gap between the rich and the rest with this recovery making  a mockery of a trickle down theory.  Bucked up by Pope Francis’ new emphasis on caring for “the least of these”,   they will wrap old issues such as unemployment benefits ,food stamps, and minimum wage increases in moral  tones.   Minimum wage increase has  a chance of adoption since  libertarians and some Tea Party members see it  as a way to reduce  the entitlement state. 

Expect the GOP to be  against whatever President Obama wants,  and not for much other than cutting government services, reducing   the deficit, and maybe pieces of  immigration reform to garner more Hispanic votes. Issues such as the economy, the  deficit, and Obamacare could initially be their hottest  topics. However, there is a danger in  relying on those two issues because they  may  have diminishing returns as November approaches.

 Increasing  Obamacare signups will make repeal, taking away benefits so many will have realized, an  untenable political strategy and the GOP will likely shift  to nibble, repair, and sabotage.  Rehashing their old  ideas for replacement  that  failed the effective test over the last four years is not a promising  exercise.

 To make their case for “repair”,  we can expect Republicans  to continue to dramatize the health care law’s warts  and the plight of  those who drew the short stick.  We can expect the supporters of Obamacare to return fire with anecdotes of successes and  to delay  implementation of  more minor  sore points.   The advantage of the battle of the anecdotes will go to Democrats since the numbers of those benefiting will far outweigh the disgruntled and the 85%  of the population on employer’s insurance or Medicare and Medicaid will have seen little change before November 2014. Their plans have already adjusted to the new law.

The GOP could make   the limp  economy an issue, but that, too, has diminishing returns. The economy  is growing and the forecast is that it will continue to improve. The better it gets, the less voters will care. The Democrats could  counter   that the economy grew in spite of    the  GOP’s putting brakes on it.   The government shutdown   reduced the growth rate by   3/10 of percent and the sequester  by 0.7 percent by July 2013, and resulting pain triggered the back tracking  budget  deal in December. Further weakening the GOP will be   the split in their party between the ideologically hide bound Tea Party  shutdowners and the more pro business  establishment that will erupt in the February  debt limit debate  and  again in their  primaries.

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