So is it the economy? Updated August 26, 2024 for Harris plan

 For the MAGA meme screamers, update your data or produce your alternative facts. Economist Steve Rattner adjusted his data to remove the COVID impact on the economy for which Trump was not responsible nor does he deserve credit for low prices and border crossings that happened during COVID. FYI: Scream all you want about prices (now stabilizing), but no president, Trump, Fiden, or Harris can edict or control or set grocery prices, nor can they, with any executive action, roll them back to December 2019. Get real.. (We closed the border because of the COVID crisis, remember?)). The growth of the economy and job creation were worse under Trump than under Biden. Violent crime was lower under Biden (and illegal migrants' crime rates were much less than others). Oil? Under Biden, the USA is now energy independent. Inflation? rate was down to near-normal levels under Biden. The Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in September because of the threat of increased unemployment and that the inflation rate is close to the target of 2% .Here are my facts : (We closed the border because of the COVID crisis, remember? No wonder illegal crossings were down. duh). Once the COVID close was lifted. Illegal border crossings are now down from 8K to 2 K in spite of Trump torpedoing the bipartisan bill that included funding for building the rest of the Wall and enough border guards, and judges to screen for actual trafficked victims and proof of persecution to be accepted for asylum. Those seeking only economic opportunity do not get asylum under our current law. So, instead of whining about Biden's recovery success.. what does Trump plan? So far, goose eggs, except for inflation causing tariffs and national debt busting more tax relief for billionaires that never trickled down and drill baby drill when we have so much oil, we do not have a shortage to be fixed, and we are exporting our energy already. The only high taxes Biden had proposed is to reverse the low taxes on the ultra-rich Tump passed. Harris proposes restoring child tax credit and aid to families with new babies. Free stuff? That is because consumers are being screwed by expensive stuff by price-gouging business greed( which Harris plans to stop.) Trump has no plan to reduce prices, but he only plans to make it worse;, slapping high tariffs on all imports, costs passed on to all consumers, ending Obamacare, ending free lunches for poor kids, rolling back the big pharma controls, and deals Biden made for low-cost meds for seniors., Here's Kamala Harris' one: Kamala Harris released her economic platform: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-economic-plan-presidential-candidate/

One of the parts of the Harris economic plan is to go after grocery store price gougers and monopolistic, greedy price setters.  Is there price gouging going on?  A federal case brought by the DOJ against the merger of two grocery store giants, Kroger and Albertson's, resulted in a confirmation by a store executive that, yes, they had gouged some prices. https://www.newsweek.com/kroger-executive-admits-company-gouged-prices-above-inflation-1945742  Why is this merger such a issue? Because when there is a monopoly, an inhouse memo can set prices without fear of a competitor starting a price war.

Good question: We have had tax hikes and tariff hikes, but we still have inflation. Why? Tax policy has little to do with it. COVID and recovery are why. tax policy is not the reason for current inflation. It was the impact of COVID's on the economy and the recovery from it. . https://credit.org/.../what-is-causing-inflation-in-2024.... " according to Fortune, economists generally agree on some of the causes behind the high inflation that has defined the economy over the last several months:

"The pandemic shifted consumer demand away from services toward goods, which left producers unable to keep up with demand.

Factory closures from early in the pandemic reduced supply just as demand was rising, which sent prices up even further.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in oil prices, which increased the cost of both manufacturing and shipping, while also forcing up the price of wheat and other commodities.

On top of that, the U.S. was dealing with a labor shortage, leaving many businesses that had been shuttered for months unable to meet rising demand — much of which was due to stimulus payments — when they were finally able to open.” (yahoo.com)"

CREDIT.ORG

What is Causing Inflation in 2024? Understanding Transitory

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Trump's proposal to raise tariffs is considered by economists to be one of the highest tax increases in history. Both Biden and Trump have already raised tariffs with a negative impact on the US economy. , costing 684K jobs, $524 more in taxes, and shrink the GDP  

Per   https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-biden-tariffs/

• Candidate Trump has proposed significant tariff hikes as part of his presidential campaign; we estimate that if imposed, his proposed tariff increases would hike taxes by another $524 billion annually and shrink GDP by at least 0.8 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, and employment by 684,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Our estimates do not capture the effects of retaliation, nor the additional harms that would stem from starting a global trade war.
• Academic and governmental studies find the Trump-Biden tariffs have raised prices and reduced output and employment, producing a net negative impact on the US economy.

.https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/crime-down-under-biden-steve-rattner-fact-checks-trump-s-latest-claims-217215557519

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/08/16/kamala-harris-releases-economic-agenda-heres-what-to-know/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iTn_fxQijU

A short response to social media posts griping about high prices:

   https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/16/kamala-harris-economic-policy.html

-oil.. USA .first time since 1950 energy independent...producing more from all sources than we import. we are now exporting oil. (note: we do not have an energy shortage, so drill baby drill to increase supply as a solution is BS) Under Trump, imported lots of Venezuela oil; nearly 0 under Biden)

-Biden is responsible for inflation?. He dramatically decreased the rate. Trump would increase it. Under Biden, the rate of increase fell from 9% Covid end, caused by pent-up demand and supply chain problems, to under 3%...much due to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.. Goal: 2% inflation normal rate. As expected in September, the Fed will lower interest rates. Trump plans to put a 10% tariff on all imports. Every top world economist says this would cause inflation to rise.

- violent crime? increased a bit under Trump and dropped 26% under Biden...legal immigrants and, even more dramatically, illegal ones rates much lower than native-born American crime rates.

- Illegal border crossings per day are down dramatically. 8k last December; 4K in May. 2K now. Biden exec order to refuse to hear asylum cases if crossings exceeded 2400 helped. , but Trump sabotaged even measures to build the rest of the wall and to fund increased staffing to hear and screen border crossers to separate actual asylum seekers (allowed by law)from those looking for economic refugees. (not a reason for asylum granting)

Trump yesterday gave no clear answers of how he could reduce prices to consumers and decrease housing costs except drill baby drill BS and give us the real inflation raiser, tariffs.

. Friday, Harris will give her plan.

The GOP and the gender gap

The GOP must be looking at poll numbers. They are still losing the women’s vote, especially in Colorado. The gender gap is wide as Democrat Sen. Udall begins the campaign with a 9% lead among women over the GOP opponent Congressman Cory Gardner.  July and August NBC/Wall Street Journal polls show a significant gender gap nationally. The Colorado gap may widen as more women learn Gardner’s positions on their issues.

So now Republicans are attempting to blunt the Democrats' accusations that they are waging a war on women by trying to divert attention to job creation and the economy.  It may not be a war on women, but the GOP consistently gives women’s economic and personal interests second place to other priorities. What Republicans do not understand is that women’s take-home pay and their ability to participate in the economy are being made more difficult by their policies of consistently putting women’s interests below employers' rights and bottom lines or when core religious conservative supporters raise objections.

For example, women getting insurance from employers should not have to pay more for health insurance premiums than men.   Increasing the minimum wage helps women who mostly hold the minimum-wage jobs.  There is no one more important right that enables women to work than being able to control when, if, and how often they have children.  That is the ultimate economic issue in middle-class families where the women’s paycheck is vital.

While some GOP members have supported raising the minimum wage, the party as a whole, including Gardner, has blocked congressional action.  Republicans' adamant opposition to Obamacare would restore the right of insurers to charge women more for premiums, and Gardner has voted to repeal Obamacare fifty times.

The GOP has consistently supported limiting women’s ability to control their reproduction schedules. Birth control is even under assault from the GOP-lauded Hobby Lobby decision that permitted certain corporations to opt out of covering birth control for religious reasons.

Pro-life is the basic litmus test for the GOP to back any candidates.  There are those who permit exceptions to banning abortions and others more extreme who want to criminalize abortions or the doctors who perform them.  The GOP still nominates candidates who take the most extreme positions, including Gardner.

Gardner was also not only a proponent, but a longtime leader of the state personhood amendment that would consider life begins at conception, a backdoor way to make all abortions criminal, and passage would make certain kinds of birth control illegal.

Recently, though, Gardner quietly tried to walk back his support of the personhood amendment.  His conversion is suspect, given the timing.  With the personhood amendment on the state ballot in November, it will be hard for him to duck his history.  In Congress, his name is still on a federal personhood amendment bill, and he recently voted for a bill that would make it criminal for abortions to be performed after the 20th week with few exceptions.

For more, visit www.mufticforumblog.blogspot.com

A version of this appeared in the www.skyhidailynews.com August 28 and 29 2014

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrats-hang-slight-leads-key-senate-races-n155531

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2060

America's Fed Up: Obama Approval Rating Hits All-Time Low, Poll Shows - NBC News

http://www.factcheck.org/2014/08/a-fight-over-birth-control-in-colorado/?utm_source=FactCheck.org&utm_campaign=14f7ddb656-FactCheck_Newsletter_8_15_20148_16_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_3294bba774-14f7ddb656-47897245

Boehner and McConnell fall on swords to stop Tea Party bitten by amnesia bug

This past  week, John Boehner, House Speaker  and 27 of his fellow Republicans, fell on their swords to aid their party  when they joined with Democrats   to raise   the debt ceiling  with no strings attached and to block  Tea Party  threats to shut down the government again. The Senate then passed the legislation on a party line vote, though  enough Republicans led by  minority leader Mitch McConnell,  voted to break  the filibuster rule requirement of 60 votes. The GOP leaders realized the Tea Party must have been bitten by the amnesia bug.to try to repeat their last fiasco and other failed strategies.   

Last fall,  Boehner let the Tea Party have their way and the GOP did shut down the government. The  political backlash   was so severe , Republicans  even feared they would lose seats in the 2014 midterms and set up another Democratic win for the White House in 2016.   The GOP was  saved by   the bungled roll out of Obamacare, charges the President’s” lied” about keeping insurance,   and a budget deal.

That Boehner’s action risked  his  speakership and Mitch McConnell gave fuel to Tea Party opponents in his upcoming primary  shows that the Tea Party has   nearly   completed their takeover  of the Republican party.   In Colorado,  traditional  business oriented Republicans are only bystanders in a battle between the Tea Party Express and local ultra conservatives   to see who can endorse the most conservative candidate to take on Democrat Sen.  Mark Udall in November.  Similar battles elsewhere   guarantee that Democratic candidates for state houses and  Congress in blue and purple states will have an advantage in facing  the most extreme opponents who will have problems  pivoting to the center to  appeal  to moderate middles in the general election.  

This year the situation is different . The web site works. As of February 1 nearly 14  million are already covered by Obamacare (3.3 million through the exchanges; 7 million through Medicaid expansion and  3 million young adults on parents’ policies).  An estimated 60% of the  5 million losing individual insurance have found other insurance policies or qualified for cheaper ones.. By the 2014 mid terms, the administration  projects    six  million will have signed up through Obamacare  exchanges. .  The Tea Party still is adamantly advocating  total repeal and no replacement. All those  benefiting  by November 2014  will not look kindly on candidates wanting to take away their newly acquired affordable  insurance coverage.

The Tea Party’s domination of the GOP will also help  Democrat’s chances of holding onto the Senate since key states with large Hispanic populations swung  blue in 2012  by their  disaffection with the GOP’s perceived hostility, Colorado included..   Thanks to Tea Party fanatics in Congress, Boehner was forced to back down from any compromise or even a piecemeal approach to immigration reform this year.

The Tea Party  continues to  alienate  unmarried women, a must win voting block.   Anti choice platforms and  Insults  continue, the latest by former  Gov. Mike Huckabee who opined   women wanted the pill  because they could not keep their “libido” under control.   The GOP ‘s repeal  of  Obamacare would   eliminate  Obamacare  standards  that prohibit  higher  premiums  for women  or covering  mammograms  and birth control pills sans  co-pays. Since women comprise much of the minimum wage workforce, GOP opposition to raising it is one more  turnoff.

Political game playing in 2014. GOP issues may have diminishing returns.

Welcome to 2014 and the year of the mid term elections to the Senate and House in November.  There are enough trial balloons released  in media talk shows lately  laying out party game plans, we can get  an  idea of what to expect. 

2014 is  likely to be consumed by  mostly  posturing  and positioning. Any sound and fury  will signify very little earth shaking  legislative action between now  and 2016  since both sides have indicated they have dug in with their respective hard line  approaches   The budget deal has already been struck. Only the debt ceiling debate looms which will be mostly a vehicle for both political parties to rally their bases.

Expect the Democrats to go on the offensive to propose tackling  the widening gap between the rich and the rest with this recovery making  a mockery of a trickle down theory.  Bucked up by Pope Francis’ new emphasis on caring for “the least of these”,   they will wrap old issues such as unemployment benefits ,food stamps, and minimum wage increases in moral  tones.   Minimum wage increase has  a chance of adoption since  libertarians and some Tea Party members see it  as a way to reduce  the entitlement state. 

Expect the GOP to be  against whatever President Obama wants,  and not for much other than cutting government services, reducing   the deficit, and maybe pieces of  immigration reform to garner more Hispanic votes. Issues such as the economy, the  deficit, and Obamacare could initially be their hottest  topics. However, there is a danger in  relying on those two issues because they  may  have diminishing returns as November approaches.

 Increasing  Obamacare signups will make repeal, taking away benefits so many will have realized, an  untenable political strategy and the GOP will likely shift  to nibble, repair, and sabotage.  Rehashing their old  ideas for replacement  that  failed the effective test over the last four years is not a promising  exercise.

 To make their case for “repair”,  we can expect Republicans  to continue to dramatize the health care law’s warts  and the plight of  those who drew the short stick.  We can expect the supporters of Obamacare to return fire with anecdotes of successes and  to delay  implementation of  more minor  sore points.   The advantage of the battle of the anecdotes will go to Democrats since the numbers of those benefiting will far outweigh the disgruntled and the 85%  of the population on employer’s insurance or Medicare and Medicaid will have seen little change before November 2014. Their plans have already adjusted to the new law.

The GOP could make   the limp  economy an issue, but that, too, has diminishing returns. The economy  is growing and the forecast is that it will continue to improve. The better it gets, the less voters will care. The Democrats could  counter   that the economy grew in spite of    the  GOP’s putting brakes on it.   The government shutdown   reduced the growth rate by   3/10 of percent and the sequester  by 0.7 percent by July 2013, and resulting pain triggered the back tracking  budget  deal in December. Further weakening the GOP will be   the split in their party between the ideologically hide bound Tea Party  shutdowners and the more pro business  establishment that will erupt in the February  debt limit debate  and  again in their  primaries.

For more, visit www.mufticforumblog.blogspot.com