Rethinking Democratic Party Strategy

In the wake of the GOP’s inability to repeal and replace Obamacare and the Democratic party realizing they are a  minority party out of power from city hall to Congress, both parties have circled their respective wagons and firing their guns at their own partisans.  The Democrats have one  set of problems. Theirs is strategy: whether to work with President Trump on some matters of agreement or whether to stonewall everything proposed by Trump and the GOP.  

The GOP’s problem is ideological v political pragmatism, trying to unite two very different factions with very different constituencies. Their chasm opened widely with , the right concerned about limiting federal government and increasing tax breaks to  corporations and wealthy  in the name of job creation and the moderates more concerned about solving the everyday problems of their more purple state constituents .

The Democrats do not have major philosophical and political differences, making it easier to unite.  However, there are some very significant conflicting viewpoints about strategy.  One camp would like to do unto the GOP what the GOP had done unto them. For seven years, the GOP had tried to  stonewall everything in Congress the Democrats wanted, from Supreme Court nominees to stimulus, to Obamacare, to environmental protections, to Wall Street reform.. The GOP had become the party of “no”, and now, imany believe it is the turn  for the Democrats to become the party of no. .

What is a danger is that HSS Secretary Tom Price could do much damage sabotaging the ACA with his administrative functions and the upcoming tax reform legislation could also do some harm. It would be self-fulling the GOP’s prophecy that the ACA was destroying itself.

The alternative is for Democrats joining together with President Trump in coalition politics with Trump supporters and  moderate GOP pragmatists  to repair the ACA and support infrastructure spending. The danger is that it might make Trump look good enough, he would be re-elected, jeopardizing the crucial appointment to the Supreme Court that makes it extremely conservative, jeopardizing Roe v Wade or other issues dear to the Democratic hearts.   

On the other hand, Democrats are beginning to realize that support they normally would have had in 2016 swung to Trump because he showed sympathy with unhappiness of less educated, Southern cultured, and northern blue collar workers ,and promised he would fix it.  Addressing that unhappiness is where both Trump and Bernie Sanders came together and Hillary Clinton missed the boat.   

Where both parties are in danger is forgetting  that their constituents have the power to make a difference in both the Electoral College, the raw national polls, and even local elections.  The laurel leaf of victory will be worn by the party that realizes that partisan warfare and ideology in the long run are not the winners.  It is which party understands the causes  of voter discontent and demonstrates the ability to craft laws and policies that appeal to the restless swing voters.

The Democratic party will have to do what it can to show it cares, even if it means joining in a coalition of strange bedfellows on certain issues. They still have the voice, if not Congressional votes, to raise cain when the GOP harms those same swing voters.

The monkey is now on the GOP's back. Now they must come the party of yes, and the winning "yes" at that.

  The “party of no “now must become the “party of yes “ or face an electorate  in 2016 already fed up with inaction on issues important to them.  The monkey is now on the GOP’s back to provide solutions.

The GOP won with anti-Obama and anti-gridlock sentiment. If the GOP thinks all they have to do is make good on promises to roll back Obama’s programs, and send the White House legislation they know will get vetoed, they may lay the seeds for their own defeat in 2016. Voters clearly want more than more gridlock. If the GOP proposes alternatives, what they advocate may turn blocks of voters against them. If what they pass accomplishes little, they risk being called failures.

2016 is not 2014. The make-up of the electorate will be larger and more diverse in 2016 because it is a presidential election year. Only a third of the electorate, older with fewer minorities, voted in 2014. The GOP will be defending more Senate seats in blue states in 2016 than Democrats contested in red states in 2014, with a greater chance of Democrats retaking the Senate.

There are three issues that could activate blocks of the electorate to vote against the GOP: immigration, health care reform, and middle class prosperity.

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Hispanics historically turn out in greater numbers in presidential years than in midterms. In recent elections that has been sufficient to keep the GOP from gathering enough electoral votes from battleground states with large Latino minorities to win the White House.

The newly elected Representatives and Senators may have run on anti- immigrant platforms, but they will not be able to hide votes on the record that could solidify the Hispanic support  of the Democratic party for another decade. GOP threats to take revenge on Pres. Obama’s executive orders regarding deportation will certainly further alienate them. Another turnoff will be if GOP fails to provide a legal status for undocumented immigrants already in the US.

So far the GOP has found simply advocating repeal sheltered them from having to craft fiscally sound alternatives to Obamacare that will allow the millions who like their Obamacare plans to keep their Obamacare plans.   Polls show voters want Obamacare “fixed”, not repealed and taking away benefits could cause a revolt from the deprived. However, the GOP has not yet found a way to fund changes that would pass Congressional Budget Office scrutiny while also providing similar popular benefits and affordability to current and potential 30 million customers.

If the GOP attempts to push through legislation that increases college costs, makes health care unaffordable again, or opposes minimum wage increases and leaves the middle class waiting for economic growth to  trickle down to them, they will give Democrats a gift  of a 2016 campaign issue: middle class well-being.  Short term job creation programs for infrastructure and the Keystone Pipeline may provide better wages and jobs for some, but not for all sectors. The GOP has two years  come up with real solutions to aid  the struggling middle class or face  fickle, fed up voters in 2016.

A version of this appeared in the Sky Hi Daily News Nov. 13, 2014  www.skyhidailynews.com

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2014/1105/Midterm-elections-exit-poll-It-was-the-economy-stupid

http://pos.org/2014/11/mcinturff-harrington-morning-consult-column-11-6-14-the-aca-was-not-a-significant-vote-factor-this-election/

http://news.yahoo.com/reagan-bush-acted-alone-shield-immigrants-171420251.html   They did not impeach either Reagan or Bush for taking unilateral action using executive authority. Obama, of course, is different?

Border crisis is a shame

The border mess of 50,000 children and families escaping violence in Central America is a matter of shame.  Clear and simple: they should be treated as refugees as the current law requires,, whether they have been trafficked by Coyotes or motivated to flee to the US by misinformation and lack of understanding of our laws.

Shame on  GOP politicians pandering to their anti immigrant constituents to  take advantage of a crisis to bolster their core support instead of offering their own plans to solve a problem , all the while blocking  any constructive solutions.

It is shameful that young children are spit at by hate faced demonstrators waiving  American flags. That sets a terrible example to the rest of the world  of how to deal with their own ethnic and religious conflicts and  refugee crises.

75% of Colorado’s 480 thousand  registered Latinos  that voted for Pres. Obama in 2012 and, 70% nationwide, swung key states blue. (source: a Pew poll October 1 2012) They understood that the real culprit is the GOP and a Republican dominated House of Representatives which  has   refused to pass any proposed  comprehensive legislation that would have funded more border patrols and border security in return for a plan to deal with the 11 million undocumented already in our country.

 Should the President visit the border? Did he just commit a Bush Katrina error? Maybe. The GOP is making much of his non visit, but it is a diversion tactic from their own lack of action or sympathy with the plight of the child refugees. Action, though, is more important than photo ops and the GOP as usual is stonewalling action once again.

 Those  few Hispanics and Democrats  who are criticizing the President for not doing more or too much should be careful not to promote  a plague on both houses mentality resulting in many  sitting out elections.  Election of more anti immigrant GOP members to Congress  or the election of a Republican president would  just put comprehensive immigration  on ice for years or even result in more harmful measures. 

Now the GOP is concocting reasons to  oppose the President’s proposal of $3.7 billion to address the crisis by  quibbling over money, dragging their feet while decrying an immediate crisis ,  or advocating putting  refugees  on the next plane back home ,  depriving them of due process. The purpose of the President’s request:  to add more border agents to process and patrol,  to provide humanitarian detention of the influx and to launch a public campaign to educate Central American parents that their children will not qualify for citizenship and will face deportation. Dare Congress to vote no on this one;  the “party of do nothing, stonewall all with Obama’s name  attached”,   will add to increasing  evidence of the GOP’s  dereliction of duty to  govern.

The GOP stance on immigration reform is a sham, if  not a shame:” secure the borders  first and then we might  discuss some way to send immigrants back from whence   they or their parents came, just so any plan does not include a path to citizenship.”  Whatever is done to secure the borders could never be sufficient  because there is no definition  of when enough is enough. It is much like the old joke: “Mother, may I go swimming? Of course you may, my daughter, but do not go near the water.”

Data source:

http://pewsr.ch/VrJFCu  Pew Poll, October 1, 2012

§  484,000 Hispanic eligible voters in Colorado—the ninth largest Hispanic eligible voter population nationally. California ranks first with 5.9 million.

Some 14% of Colorado eligible voters are Hispanic

Considering the alternatives to feckless and toothless in foreign and domestic and Colorado senate race politics

John McCain’s bluster and attacks at President Obama for not being hawkish enough and call him “feckless”  has me yelling back at the TV when he appears…”ok; what would you have done?”   Send troops into Syria just to show we are not wimps? Bring Georgia into NATO when 20% of it is already occupied by Russian troops? Surround Russia with nuclear missiles we never intend to use?  Start a natural  gas war that would only hurt western Europe that relies on Russian oil and gas?  (It wouldn’t do much to us but raise our  fossil fuel prices through the roof since world markets determine such prices).  Threaten NATO military intervention  in the Ukraine when even he has taken that off the table?  Give me a break.

 At least McCain deserves credit for coming up with some alternatives, but the alternatives he presents are those that we have no intention of following through….they are just toothless wonders, worse than even Obama’s drawing red line in Syria which had no realistic bite to them, especially as our allies there were hijacked by Al Qaeda affiliates. McCain’s alternatives are so full of potential backlashes, to swallow them without  chewing on them  is enough to make rational people choke.

This follows the pattern of other blustering critics of the Obama administration.  Whatever he is for, they are against even though they have no alternatives.  It is nearly always “repeal” but don’t replace. When some more moderates who agree there are indeed problems that need to be addressed  do present alternatives, their proposals  are so full of measures most cannot swallow or  they believe they will not work.

At the suggestion of a leader of the Tea Party Express, a  reader of my columns, I visited the Winston Group’s site which he claimed proved some points he was making…that the Tea Party still had the oomph and public support to be a power because it was a power in 2010.  In examining the reasons the conservative Winston Group, a beltway lobbying and political consulting outfit, tried to explain away Gov. Romney’s loss to Obama in 2012, they concluded it was because the public did not buy the alternatives he put forth, even though most Americans were in tune with conservative objectives on budget, deficit, jobs and the economy. 

The GOP may again be committing the same mistake in 2014.  Sen Mark Udall in Colorado may be low enough  in the polls to appear  beatable now, or in danger of losing in the 2014 midterms, but the GOP is falling into the  2012 trap.  Voters may not be happy campers with the Democrats, but they also are rational and they do consider alternatives when they learn about them.   Nihilism is not a plan. Elections are not won on just anger.  The question voters ask is “as compared to what or whom”.

 Damning Obamacare may be the only  GOP handle that unites their party and which, therefore they are putting forth their only  strategy in the midterms, but either presenting an empty sack full of hot air or one that does not address the problems polls show voters understand  begins to appear as a cure that is worse than the disease.

The only “replace” even getting honorable mention is the one put forth by three Republican Senators, which would either cost as much as Obamacare  and tax those already insured  by their employers to pay for it. At the recent retreat of the GOP congressional caucus, they could not even agree if they should advocate a replacement, much less what a replacement would be. Therefore, in unison, they are stuck in “repeal”mode.   

It will become even more evident in the Colorado Senate race when voters outside GOP’s gerrymandered  conservative bastions of north  east Colorado and Colorado Springs look at the GOP’s candidates who are right of the right, supporting the personhood amendments (a sure fire turnoff of women voters) and still stuck calling Hispanic’s desire for eventual citizenship “amnesty”, or failing to support dream acts (another turnoff of potential Hispanic votes).  Outside the very conservative Congressional districts, Colorado is a different, more liberal, demographically different state where the decisions will be based on “as compared with whom or what”.

Boehner and McConnell fall on swords to stop Tea Party bitten by amnesia bug

This past  week, John Boehner, House Speaker  and 27 of his fellow Republicans, fell on their swords to aid their party  when they joined with Democrats   to raise   the debt ceiling  with no strings attached and to block  Tea Party  threats to shut down the government again. The Senate then passed the legislation on a party line vote, though  enough Republicans led by  minority leader Mitch McConnell,  voted to break  the filibuster rule requirement of 60 votes. The GOP leaders realized the Tea Party must have been bitten by the amnesia bug.to try to repeat their last fiasco and other failed strategies.   

Last fall,  Boehner let the Tea Party have their way and the GOP did shut down the government. The  political backlash   was so severe , Republicans  even feared they would lose seats in the 2014 midterms and set up another Democratic win for the White House in 2016.   The GOP was  saved by   the bungled roll out of Obamacare, charges the President’s” lied” about keeping insurance,   and a budget deal.

That Boehner’s action risked  his  speakership and Mitch McConnell gave fuel to Tea Party opponents in his upcoming primary  shows that the Tea Party has   nearly   completed their takeover  of the Republican party.   In Colorado,  traditional  business oriented Republicans are only bystanders in a battle between the Tea Party Express and local ultra conservatives   to see who can endorse the most conservative candidate to take on Democrat Sen.  Mark Udall in November.  Similar battles elsewhere   guarantee that Democratic candidates for state houses and  Congress in blue and purple states will have an advantage in facing  the most extreme opponents who will have problems  pivoting to the center to  appeal  to moderate middles in the general election.  

This year the situation is different . The web site works. As of February 1 nearly 14  million are already covered by Obamacare (3.3 million through the exchanges; 7 million through Medicaid expansion and  3 million young adults on parents’ policies).  An estimated 60% of the  5 million losing individual insurance have found other insurance policies or qualified for cheaper ones.. By the 2014 mid terms, the administration  projects    six  million will have signed up through Obamacare  exchanges. .  The Tea Party still is adamantly advocating  total repeal and no replacement. All those  benefiting  by November 2014  will not look kindly on candidates wanting to take away their newly acquired affordable  insurance coverage.

The Tea Party’s domination of the GOP will also help  Democrat’s chances of holding onto the Senate since key states with large Hispanic populations swung  blue in 2012  by their  disaffection with the GOP’s perceived hostility, Colorado included..   Thanks to Tea Party fanatics in Congress, Boehner was forced to back down from any compromise or even a piecemeal approach to immigration reform this year.

The Tea Party  continues to  alienate  unmarried women, a must win voting block.   Anti choice platforms and  Insults  continue, the latest by former  Gov. Mike Huckabee who opined   women wanted the pill  because they could not keep their “libido” under control.   The GOP ‘s repeal  of  Obamacare would   eliminate  Obamacare  standards  that prohibit  higher  premiums  for women  or covering  mammograms  and birth control pills sans  co-pays. Since women comprise much of the minimum wage workforce, GOP opposition to raising it is one more  turnoff.

Political game playing in 2014. GOP issues may have diminishing returns.

Welcome to 2014 and the year of the mid term elections to the Senate and House in November.  There are enough trial balloons released  in media talk shows lately  laying out party game plans, we can get  an  idea of what to expect. 

2014 is  likely to be consumed by  mostly  posturing  and positioning. Any sound and fury  will signify very little earth shaking  legislative action between now  and 2016  since both sides have indicated they have dug in with their respective hard line  approaches   The budget deal has already been struck. Only the debt ceiling debate looms which will be mostly a vehicle for both political parties to rally their bases.

Expect the Democrats to go on the offensive to propose tackling  the widening gap between the rich and the rest with this recovery making  a mockery of a trickle down theory.  Bucked up by Pope Francis’ new emphasis on caring for “the least of these”,   they will wrap old issues such as unemployment benefits ,food stamps, and minimum wage increases in moral  tones.   Minimum wage increase has  a chance of adoption since  libertarians and some Tea Party members see it  as a way to reduce  the entitlement state. 

Expect the GOP to be  against whatever President Obama wants,  and not for much other than cutting government services, reducing   the deficit, and maybe pieces of  immigration reform to garner more Hispanic votes. Issues such as the economy, the  deficit, and Obamacare could initially be their hottest  topics. However, there is a danger in  relying on those two issues because they  may  have diminishing returns as November approaches.

 Increasing  Obamacare signups will make repeal, taking away benefits so many will have realized, an  untenable political strategy and the GOP will likely shift  to nibble, repair, and sabotage.  Rehashing their old  ideas for replacement  that  failed the effective test over the last four years is not a promising  exercise.

 To make their case for “repair”,  we can expect Republicans  to continue to dramatize the health care law’s warts  and the plight of  those who drew the short stick.  We can expect the supporters of Obamacare to return fire with anecdotes of successes and  to delay  implementation of  more minor  sore points.   The advantage of the battle of the anecdotes will go to Democrats since the numbers of those benefiting will far outweigh the disgruntled and the 85%  of the population on employer’s insurance or Medicare and Medicaid will have seen little change before November 2014. Their plans have already adjusted to the new law.

The GOP could make   the limp  economy an issue, but that, too, has diminishing returns. The economy  is growing and the forecast is that it will continue to improve. The better it gets, the less voters will care. The Democrats could  counter   that the economy grew in spite of    the  GOP’s putting brakes on it.   The government shutdown   reduced the growth rate by   3/10 of percent and the sequester  by 0.7 percent by July 2013, and resulting pain triggered the back tracking  budget  deal in December. Further weakening the GOP will be   the split in their party between the ideologically hide bound Tea Party  shutdowners and the more pro business  establishment that will erupt in the February  debt limit debate  and  again in their  primaries.

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