Storm clouds on the horizon for Trump, business interests, and Elon Musk

 There are storm clouds on the horizon for Trump as he faces pressure from business interests and Elon Musk. Business interests may be the only guardrails Trump will face challenging his priorities. To Trump, what matters to him is what the stock market is doing.  If that begins to tank due to inflation rising again, maybe he might begin to see the folly of high tariffs and immigration policies causing a labor shortage as he tries to live up to his campaign policies to mess with both. https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/business/guardrails-trump-economy-stock-market-bonds

Alarm bells are ringing as Trump has indicated a potential desire to turn the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, into a political weapon and to set interest rates per political considerations.  If the Fed begins to raise interest rates as inflation raises its ugly head again, Trump may try to replace the members with loyalists so he could control interest rates to make his regime look good politically. That move would be fought tooth and nail by business interests. The Federal Reserve has the only tool available to fight inflation. They control an overheated economy using interest rates. While high interest rates post-COVID were politically painful, in the long run they have brought inflation down to nearly 2%, an annual rate economists consider healthy.

 Elon Musk's current relationship will likely run into conflict with Trump over tariffs and the environment (Tesla and batteries are important to him, and they depend on environmentally sensitive customers)  Musk also understands science and its value to Space X.  Cuts of government service runs counter to his business tech orientation which is highly dependent on science and data collecting. How that plays out will be a fascinating drama to watch. V Conflict with Trump's team members have already begun. Musk, top Trump adviser clash over Cabinet picks

Possibly an area of conflict between Musk and Pres. Trump is if Project 2025 is implemented. Eliminated as unnecessary are whole agencies at the EPA. . ‘Agencies To Be Deleted’: Vivek Ramaswamy Says DOGE Will Pursue ‘Mass Reductions,’ Fight Bureaucratic ‘Pushback’  In MAGA'S mind, environmental and climate research is unnecessary. Global warming is a hoax, per Project 2025 and Donald Trump. They must think if it is not collecting data that is reported in the media, global warming will go away. Besides, these regulatory agencies cut into corporate profits, and those agency cuts are needed to offset the tax breaks to the rich that will bloat the debt and deficits.  Project 2025 proposes to eliminate any reference to man-caused global warming in government agencies including eliminating agencies who keep track of such unnecessary stuff since there is no global warming man causes.  Among those on the cutting block are possibly  Boulder's National Atmospheric Research labs, and NOAA's chief research facility also located in Boulder, Colorado. . https://www.noaa.gov/about-our-agency  

Interesting, however, is that Trump's pick for energy czar is from Denver, who believes there is climate change, but it is not a crisis. https://www.denverpost.com/2024/11/19/chris-wright-colorado-energy-secretary-nominee

 On the other hand, Elon Musk may see a business opportunity. He already has billions worth of government contracts, especially in space travel, exploration, and rockets. That is his business model. It is taking over stodgy government agencies and replacing them with money-saving contracts under his control and for profit. Running science agencies would more than benefit his bottom line and the automotive and space agencies that already make him the richest man in the world. Trump's victory brought Tesla and Musk 70 billion dollars. It also means that those agencies would serve him, but not the public interest. and competitors.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/11/elon-musk-is-70-billion-richer-since-trump-victory-due-to-tesla-surge.html 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/16/elon-musk-trump-treasury-tariffs/

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/14/climate/trump-noaa-climate-data-weather.html

https://www.law.berkeley.edu/research/clee/research/other-research-initiatives/environmental-guid

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/07/what-project-2025-would-do-to-climate-policy-in-the-us/

Elitists vs. simple speak: Democrats face challenges.

MAGA has turned the GOP into the party of the poorly educated and made it easy to manipulate them with simplistic gobbledegook. The challenge for Dems is to speak their language and explain the unintended consequences of simplistic solutions to complex problems. Appropriate messaging to voters of various education levels is key to political success. Democrats are just not good at that. Education is the greatest predictor of how someone will vote. It may be an insurmountable challenge, but they must at least try to improve to reach across the education divide. https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/14/politics/the-biggest-predictor-of-how-someone-will-vote/index.html.

Abstract concepts and warnings of unintended consequences based on facts, data, and historical experiences work in communicating with the more educated. The messaging challenge for Democrats is they have to wait for reality to catch up with their predictions and make the connection in simple, 6th-grade-level terms. That is the average reading comprehensive level for the United States. Democrats need to express themselves in terms that reach them, too. This means speaking to the public just as you would a 6th grader about policies that even Ph.D.s debate. It can be done. MAGA did it.

The lack of reading comprehension is not new. What is new is that Americans have become auditory and visual learners and they get their news and develop opinions shaped by blogs, podcasts, TV personalities, and social media. Simple speak is just that: speak. The problem is that often those who deliver news and opinions also get their information from the written word, too, but translating their views into simple speak takes some skill. https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/news-influencers-social-media-pew-report-rcna179786

"I told you so" or "you are too stupid to get it "are not the best responses to the loss Democrats experienced on November 5 as they try to place the blame on "low information voters". Enough of those cost them the election, true, but Democrats in the future need to figure out how to reach them, too. It comes down to asking themselves what those voters are feeling and seeing in their daily lives in the here and now. Political and economic theorizing and warnings about consequences are not on the kitchen table for dinner for those who are not absorbed by politics. The best approach is a cynical one, which is exactly the one MAGA dis. "See, the price of eggs is ridiculous. Remember what it was like when X was in charge? Therefore all of these prices and inflation are their fault, implying vote for him and he will fix it."(whether it was or not true or the hows to do it are missing). Harris attempted to bring messaging down to common terms better than most Democrats lately, but it was not enough, and she was reluctant to criticize Biden. Bill Clinton was the best explainer in the simple language of any politician I can recall. What goes around eventually comes around but at that point placing the blame should be in simplistic language, too. If I ever hear again "existential threat", or other jargon like that, libs need to get their tongues examined. Showing how smart you are to use big words is unhelpful.

Communicating with those who are illiterate or who have 6th-grade reading comprehension abilities takes a special set of skills. For a good part of my professional life, I have specialized in trying to do it in both columns and in books, in politics, and in educating people about being good and smart consumers. I write in simple English and try to avoid jargon. Sometimes I fail and fall into the jargon trap. Other times to alleviate my own frustrations, I write blog postings about messaging failures or suggest maybe "it could be said this way".  

The problem is today's problems are not simple and the solutions to them are complex and the harmful result of ignoring complexities is unintended consequences. ..making the current victims even victimized more. Dumbing down equals dumbed-down policies that the dumbed-down only see it in the price of eggs and then vote for the candidate whose policies will increase the price of eggs.  Democrats need to get their messaging , spoken and written, to the 6th-grade level if they want to make hay in pointing blame in the next two years. 

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/11/trumps-achilles-heels-unintended.html

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/11/if-its-economy-stupid-magas-rise-is-its.html

"Registered voters without a four-year college degree back Trump over Harris (52% vs. 42%). The reverse is true for registered voters with a college degree (57% Harris vs. 38% Trump)<.https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/10/the-harris-trump-matchup/

Trump's Achilles heels: unintended consequences

 The Trump package plan will contain unpleasant surprises and unintended consequences. Opponents of Trump should consider it an opportunity in preparation for the midterms instead of moping around. In the upcoming Trump administration, what can opposition voices do? What messaging can work? How can we get those messages across when the MAGA message media silo is so powerful? Would the British opposition technique of a shadow cabinet be a mechanism to organize the resistance in the media? 

If the pundits and polls are correct, the price of eggs was more than they were before COVID was the ultimate reason Trump won over low-information voters, those voters are doomed to be disappointed.  Trump can't deliver. He cannot roll back prices and he does not have the power to do it. In fact, inflation will raise its ugly head again because so many of his policies are inflationary. and prices will rise above those of the Biden administration's handoff to the Trump regime. Mass deportation, tariffs, and loss of tax income to the treasury are all inflationary. Voters will be in shock when there are unintended consequences of unpopular policies they did not know were part of the Trump  Project 2025 package plan. A backlash is inevitable. Democrats need to be ready to pounce to win in the 2026 midterms or 2028.  

 On the horizon is a long list of unpopular public policies that the Trump administration will try to implement. Many of those unpopular policies will be an unpleasant surprise because Project 2025's strategy and activation plans were ignored or because their media sources failed to report them or dismissed them as just jokes or wish lists.

 If those in the working class and struggling middle-class voters who voted for Trump think that MAGA will just cut out "unnecessary expenses" and find out that what got cut was access or affordable coverage of health insurance they could get when they had pre-existing conditions or lost employer insurance, someone might be surprised and angered. When Trump voters learn they had to work more years before retirement, and social security benefits were also chopped or some find their small business had to be closed because their help got deported, there will be an inevitable backlash. When those working for wages find they no longer get overtime, someone is going to be ticked. When food for school kids is cut, and access to women's health care access to birth control, and abortion pills are blocked, there will be a backlash, especially from those who were unaware of what came with Trump's package plan. The question is when, not if, Trump voters figure this out. Will it be before the 2026 midterms or the next presidential election cycle?  Democrats simply saying "I told you so" and "You were conned" are not effective responses, but better could be"This is the pain you are feeling, and we feel it too. Here is how to fix it. Mr. Fixit flubbed it but note the tax breaks for the rich were preserved."

We can also blame the right-wing media silo, who directed their focus to two issues. immigration and inflation, and ignored and downplayed many very unpopular policies that came as part of  MAGA control of nearly all of the levers of federal government power as laid out in Project 2025.

 Here is the real challenge Democrats face. It is also probable that the news cycles will be dominated by Trump's revenge tour he had promised, and what is going on elsewhere in the Trump administration will be overwhelmed by sensational hearings and prosecutions, while backroom dealings will go unreported and unfocused. Buried in the news will be that the reason so many of the services treasured by the middle class and the poor is that "reducing government waste and expense are policies to offset the lack of income from the loss into the treasury income those tax policies favoring the rich will cause."  The connection must be made by Democrats that tax policies for the rich is what is causing the cut in programs that made your life easier. It isn't class warfare; it isn't just unfair; it is why and how people are feeling the pain.

 One challenge Democrats have in getting their message to Trump voters is that MAGA media is controlled and owned by the US equivalent of Russian oligarchs who have their own agenda, including keeping their corporate and personal taxes low and regulations even lower.  Democrats need to get focused on the unintended consequences, cut through the revenge tour noise, and make a case for reasons to vote MAGA out in the next election cycles., including the 2026 midterms and in 2028. 

What can Democrats do to break into the MAGA media silo.?  Speaking with one voice is essential to keep the focus on their message. Rapid response is also critical as each unpopular consequence is revealed in the same new cycle  The voices need to be simple and credible. Pete Buttigieg showed how to do it on FOX but that needs to be multiplied in the many channels, including social media. 

Here is a suggestion: take a page from MAGA and other political bodies. The Democrats have got to be ready to promote and ride the backlash with a coordinated message and then get their spokespersons with the same message on all of those media outlets.. The coordination must come from one political source orchestrating the strategy such as the DNC, the Democratic Party Chair. The British use shadow cabinets. Shadow cabinet members are credible heavyweights like standing committees with designated spokespeopyle and are ready to go at a moment's notice. Members of Congress become the bullhorn, blowing the same tune to magnify and repeat and repeat again and again. 

Since most politics are local, on-record votes by Congress people for policies that harm their constituents should also make news in House members' hometown media, print, radio talk, or social contacts. Federal administrative action harm can also be brought down to the state, district, and local levels. Trump is going to force GOP  Congressional representatives to take votes that are unpopular in their districts under the threat of primarying the disloyal. Democrats should not let them off the hook with silence the time the harm is done, and again at the next campaign cycle, too. For example, if the tariff policy results in retaliatory action by, say, China that causes massive layoffs with local impact in certain congressional districts, the state or local Democratic party could make sure constituents know who was to blame at the time and again at the next election. If cutting Medicaid causes the local hospital to fold, that too is fair game. Loss of workforce because of wide-reaching immigration sweeps is another local opportunity. A local issue for my county is federal antitrust action against a merger of Kroger and Albertson.  If that DOJ action is dropped under orders of Trump or his compliant AG, and the state suit approves the merger, our county will see a lot of pain. 

Business interests may be the only guardrails Trump will face per a recent analysis and to Trump, it means what the stock market is doing.  If that begins to tank due to inflation rising again, maybe he might begin to see the folly of high tariffs and immigration policies causing a labor shortage, as he tries to live up to his campaign policies to mess with both.  Much more at  https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/11/storm-clouds-on-horizon-for-elon-musk.html

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/business/guardrails-trump-economy-stock-market-bonds

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https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/11/if-its-economy-stupid-magas-rise-is-its.html

KEEPING TRACK of expected unintended consequences follows: this is an ever-expanding list.

Millions at Risk of Losing Health Insurance at the end of 2025 - Newsweek

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/6-things-expected-to-get-more-expensive-if-trump-s-trade-plans-are-enacted/ar-AA1u870X?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=1c9fdc085ff54ebba73fbb6d32e491ef&ei=25

Walmart could raise prices when Trump takes office

5 Ways New Tariffs Will Impact Your Family's Budget

The Grim Reality of President-Elect Donald Trump's Social Security Plan

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/elon-musk-s-trump-bump-keeps-growing/ar-AA1ua20G?ocid=socialshare&pc=HCTS&cvid=962a27f5ae9e4576af344726246343df&ei=12

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/11/storm-clouds-on-horizon-for-elon-musk.html

If it's the economy stupid, MAGA's rise is its likely demise

 Listening to chest-beating, hand-wringing, and soul-searching by liberals, just hang tight. MAGA has sowed the seeds for its own destruction if the single issue that determined the Nov. 5 outcome was indeed the economy.  For those who viewed economics simply as the rent was still too high, so were interest rates, and grocery prices had not come down to the good ole pre-COVID days,and they couldn't buy a house, etc.  So what if inflation was again low and everyone had a job that paid more than before COVID  and gas was under $3 per gallon. It was not good enough.  Harris proposed government plans to fix housing and grocery costs; Trump only said," Trust him." Voters who think in these simple terms will also be the same ones ticked if MAGA/Trump causes inflation to rise again. There will be a backlash, whether it is in 2026 or 2028. What are the odds of inflation to ignite? It is not a matter of when, not if.

 Whether inflation rises again depends on how much Trump/MAGA gets their agenda activated and how soon. What they promised to do in the campaign alone will cause inflation to rise again. Among the most influential in setting economic policy are the oligarchs. Who are the oligarchs influencing the economy whispering in Trump's ear?  VP  JD Vance's mentor and funder is billionaire Peter Thiel.  Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, has become Trump's best funder, friend, and economic policy influencer. Along with Jeff Bezos(Amazon/ Washington Post) and the Murdoch dynasty that own media empires, including FOX, such oligarchs control the message, too. 

 With Elon Musk most likely steering the economy, Musk will get his government contracts, the oligarchs backing Trump will get their tax and regulatory breaks, and tariffs will be imposed across the board as Trump promised. So fasten your inflation seat belts as it rises like Musk's rockets. All cause inflation and run up the country's debt. Interests will rise to deal with inflation again, provided Musk does not get his way to turn the Fed into another political instrument to set interest rates that make Trump look good instead of putting the brakes on inflation. And when they start cutting social security, medicare, Medicaid, nutrition programs, and Obamacare to deal with the debt problem instead of the oligarchs paying more taxes, good luck with that, too. No matter how low a voter's education achievement may be, no one, working or middle,  is going to forgive that hit to their family's well-being and the sacrifices they are expected to tolerate to make the rich even richer. And all will be screaming at the price of eggs again.

Nationwide, on average, 79% of U.S. adults are literate in 2022. 21% of adults in the US are illiterate in 2022. 54% of adults have a literacy below sixth-grade level. 21% of Americans 18 and older are illiterate in 2022

55 US Literacy Statistics: Literacy Rate, Average Reading Level

Bond rebound uncertain as Trump plans overshadow Fed rate cuts | Reuters  Forecast: higher consumer prices