Lost in the Epstein conspiracy theory flap: what really bugs consumers; it's the economy, stupid

 Lost in the Epstein conspiracy theory flap: what really will bug consumers. It's the economy, stupid. ( Stupid is a reference to some past pre-Trump quotes by long-ago opinion writers. Polls are showing voters are catching on to Trump's failure to live up to his campaign promises on prices)  

I am really getting tired of some MAGA supporters claiming Biden was so bad, and look how good the economy is now in contrast. Therefore, Trump's policies are not hurting the economy, they deduce. BS. The Price of gas and the inflation rate today are within close fractions to what it was in the last month of the Biden presidency in December 2024. (Remember COVID and market dislocation that caused, or did you forget that?). The bad stuff has not yet hit the fan., Tariffs and health care insurance costs, loss of migrant labor, and other factors will not be felt until months from now as inventories of imports wth the lower tariffs or none at all get depleted and sold at retail and crops rot for lack of migrant workers. The full brunt of Trump's cost-of-living-raising policies should be felt in time for the 2026 Congressional election cycle campaigns.

One very strange result of Trump's tariff threats is both MAGA and Democrats may find some common ground. Both may being seeing eye to eye that tarifss are the matter for Congress to decide, not the executive branch. 'Someone gave the President very bad legal advice': Conservative group sues Trump, claims tariffs are a 'presidential power grab that usurps Congress'

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. The impact is already beginning,. Instead of the Epstein conspiracy theory obsessing the House of Representatives and dominating DC news, the GOP-controlled House should be focused on tackling constituent concerns if they care about their political futures. They are not.  They are laying the groundwork for their defeat in the 2026 midterms, but in their loyalty to Trump,  they have fallen on their own swords.  The cost of some consumer goods has already risen.  Trump's tariff policies have already impacted interest rates. Instead of handing their legislative responsibilities over to Trump, the GOP Congress should take back its power over tariffs and health care. These issues should include lowering, not increasing, the cost of Obamacare beginning this January, depriving the sick and elderly. and disabled of their health care provided by Medicaid beginning in November 2026. wrecking access to health care services for rural areas of patients, even those self-insured and paying ones. The impact of many of the health care policies backed by the GOP will be felt during and before the 2026 Congressional elections.  

TACO Trump's tariff policies have already impacted interest rates. The Federal Reserve has said it would have lowered the interest rate but for Trump's tariff threats for increasing them in the future, and now even inflation is creeping up with the threat of higher tariffs. rising last month from 2.4 percent to 2.7 percent. In December 2024, Biden's last month in office, it was 2.9 percent...and we are not far at all from that. Gas at the pump prices are now near what Biden left them in January. And the actual tariff policies have not even taken effect...as Trump TACOs from one delay date to another.

 The stuff has not yet hit the fan, tariffs and health care insurance costs, loss of migrant labor,  and will not be felt until months from now as inventories of imports wth the lower tariffs or none at all get depleted and sold at retail and crops rot for lack of migrant workers. The full brunt of Trump's price raising policies should be felt in time for the 2026 Congressional election cycle campaigns.

A reality check:Inflation breakdown for June 2025 — in one chart

Consumer Price Index Summary - 2025 M06 Results

We do not have governmental price controls like the old communist style countries have and had. Trump's demands that domestic producers swallow the cost of tariffs will be ignored.

Here is why prices have risen.  I am an importer. I care about margins, the difference between sales and costs.  If I do not, I will go out of business. I am in business to make a profit.  Even now, fear of being charged with tariffs means that before customs releases the product to me to sell, I have already been charged up front for the import tariffs, which I pay to the US government, just charged to me on delivery.  If I don't pay the tariff, I don't get the product delivered I imported..  In anticipation of this, being charged so much up front, those who are responsible to their boards of directors or their owners, they increase prices to cover these up-front costs or take other means to compensate: lower quality, lay off workers, use more automation, charging new shipping and handling fees, same price for smaller contents in packages..  And, yes, it is business malpractice not to take this into to consideration and act accordingly. 

 When the Trump government crows about the billions their tariffs are already bringing into the treasury,  what is really happening is that consumers will eventually get charged more to cover the anticipated increased costs of paying tariff duty.  In short, consumers get screwed, and the treasury looks better. It is a cost shift that works like a tax on consumers ...and right now, importers and retailers are increasing prices to cover anticipated up-front duty charges caused by Trump's threats and some actual tariffs now in effect.  

Here is the unanticipated fallout: One would think that the imported product would be so expensive, they could not compete with US domestic producers. That may happen, and they stop importing if it makes no business sense to stay in business in the US.. However,  even 10 to 20% tariffs on imported goods will be passed on to consumers and still be sold on the shelves.   Then domestic producers could see an opportunity to raise their prices to equal the once lower cost of manufacture of imported products, which are now having to pay tariffs and raising their prices to the retailers to recoup the import tariff cost.. Imported products that are produced abroad more cheaply are no longer a factor in market competition, thanks to the tariffs. This competition wth cheaper imports once forced domestic producers to keep their margins as slim as possible.. Instead, without competition from cheaper imports,  some domestic producers are tempted to raise their prices to equal the retail price of imported products.  This is not corporate greed so much as it is market forces at work based on competition in the market..and consideration of what their competitors are charging. 

FYI Trump is not the friend you think he is if you are on a budget, a woman, a person of color,.....

As the campaigns lure "undecided" or targeted demographic groups, there are irrational honey lures that need a reality check. If you are smitten his glittering persona, he is not the friend you think he is. If you think he is good for the economy, especially consumers and ordinary Americans on a budget, he is not your friend. If you are a woman, he is especially not your friend. He will instead treat you as a "threat from within" if you do not show loyalty to him or object to his suppressive, harmful policies.

If you are taken by Trump's machismo,  weigh this. Trump has a lifetime of racism and racial discrimination, and what he is promising to do if elected is to benefit his core supporters and to suppress those who are not, especially if you are an immigrant or have ancestors of any color.    In his past is calling tiki torch neo nazis some fine people, housing discrimination, making it hard for minority groups to vote using various methods, a birtherism crusade against Obama and his ranting against the innocent Central Park Five, voter suppression including inconveniencing access to ballot drop off locations in certain zip codes, and putting up administrative barriers, or intimidating those voting in person..  If his supporters have their way, as their Project 2025  blueprint goes, all affirmative action and anti-discrimination rules will be ended administratively (not by law or Congressional action). If you raise a voice against discrimination, you will be faced with Trump's promised use of the Department of Justice to cause you or your group money and time at best by facing criminal prosecution as you defend your civil rights. A few such prosecutions can serve to frighten even those not in a leadership position. Participate in a demonstration to protest Trump's executive orders? Expect him to call in the active army to put it down. He is promising that. If you have immigrant members of your family who may not have documentation of legal status, expect them.to use the active army to hunt those without documents,  and place them in detention camps. 6.4 families are facing that vulnerability of having those in family both with legal status and not. If you choose to protest his policies, Trump will have your demonstrations ended by using active military to stop it. He has also whipped up into a froth with lies about the danger of all immigrants who are black or brown or are Muslim.  With friends like Trump, who needs enemies.

If you are a consumer on a budget, he has no plan to fight price gouging or fraud and he will cost your family money with his tariff scheme and raising prescription drug prices and harm your accesss to health care.  He himself has been convicted of fraud or forced to refund the money or his Trump University scheme to falsify business records to cheat banks and taxpayers, judged by jurors of his peers. His charitable foundations have been shut down because his family was using the money for personal benefit. He does have a plan to raise the cost of all imported goods across the board by imposing high tariffs on them to generate more money.  He also will continue the huge tax breaks to the rich and reverse forcing big pharma's prescription drug price costs. He has no plans to deal with high rent and price gouging by big corporations who control the housing markets. Obamacare is in jeopardy with his unspecified but suspected "concept," which would seriously harm those with pre-existing conditions with measures that have failed in the past. He refuses to be more specific because of the unpopularity of what he and his backers want. He spent his time trying to destroy Obamacare, not save it, FYI.  If you are a student, it is the mantra of MAGA to not give you any relief from student debt. 

You are fooling yourselves into thinking that Trump had a great economy to which all will magicallyreturn and prices will go back upon his re-election. The great economy under Trump was an illusion. In the first two years, it was due to the handoff left by Obama's successful economy that he did not change. In the last two years of his term, thanks mainly to COVID, we have had the worst economic and job losses since the Great Depression, which was his handoff to Biden.  Biden has managed to stop inflation, provide record job figures, and wage increases to compensate for the inflation that followed in the recovery from COVID-19's devastating effect on the supply chain and pent-up demand. By most indicators, we are back to the growth and economic figures before COVID struck. Gas at the pump prices are only slightly above what they were before the Ukraine conflict caused shortages. Interest rates are on their way down since inflation is close to the goal of 2% per year.  We never had the post-COVID recession that was predicted.

If you are a woman, Trump says he will let the states decide after appointing "pro-life" Supreme Court justices who carried out his wish to overturn Roe v Wade.  He can keep his extreme right-wing happy without signing a federal abortion ban into law or depending on Congress to pass one. Discrimination against women will revert to the 1960s status. A government now controls the reproductive lives of a third of Americans. If Project 2025 is his blueprint, his appointees will be able to extend access to birth control or deny other rights women have fought for since the 1970s.  His appointees will be able to do that in all states regardless of their local wishes by administrative means and rules without going to Congress or having Trump sign anything into law. In addition, affirmative action will also not be enforced via Project 2025. Discrimination against women will revert to the 1960s status.