MAGA supporters cheer Trump's economy, but the stuff has not hit the fan yet

Trump has been touting near the same interest rates and consumer prices that he inherited from Biden, and now Trump has engineered the economy's eventual slow decline into higher living costs, hurting all but the well-off. The stuff has not hit the fan yet.  Many of Trump's policies will come to a head over the next six months, leaving a sustained bad taste in the mouths of voters in time for the 2026 midterms, when all congressional members are up for re-election or the filling of open seats..  That is just for starters, because the Medicaid cuts, which were once intended to enable individuals to access affordable healthcare, will not take effect until after the November 2026 Congressional elections, when the full impact of those cuts will be felt by the voters themselves.

The announcement of the "trade/tariff" deal with the EU and major Asian trading partners, which included the largest tariff increases since the Great Depression, also hit consumers' pockets. As imported inventory is sold off, the new tariffs become additional costs that are passed on to retail customers. Businesses that cannot adjust or compete by raising costs and prices to customers will likely go out of business. It is a short-term victory for Trump, but it was a bitter pill for consumers that will be felt over the next six months. Still out there, even higher than the EU tariffs of 15%, are the "deals" that have not been finalized with Canada and Mexico. That stuff has not yet hit the fan, either.  The tiff with the Federal Reserve, Trump's pressure to lower interest rates, ignores the reason given by the Fed for holding off on lowering interest rates: it is due to the fear that these tariffs will lead to higher consumer prices and inflation.  What the tariffs would actually be is now only partially resolved.

Those crowing that today the Trump policies of the Big Beautiful Bill and the dramatic increase in health care costs to those who are living on the economic margins and the disaster facing access to rural health have not hit the fan either. The impact of the mass deportations on farm,  domestic, construction,  and hospitality workers, jobs not sought by already employed Americans, has also not hit the fan.

We in Grand County, Colorado, will know who to blame.  28 to 38 percent hike in health insurance premiums and costs. That one will be felt before the November 2026 midterms when you can thank your Congressperson who voted for this....

.https://www.skyhinews.com/news/colorado-health-insurance-rates-jump-high-in-the-next-year-western-slope-increase/

For the record, inflation is creeping up, with the threat of higher tariffs looming, rising last month from 2.4 percent to 2.7 percent. In December 2024, Biden's last month in office, the unemployment rate was 2.9 percent...and we are not far from that. Gas at the pump prices are now near what Biden left them in January (per AAA.). Update 7/30/2025: As Biden left office, the economy grew by 2.4% in the last quarter of 2024.  The growth rate released today under the Trump regime rose to 3%, as the Fed meets to discuss whether to lower interest rates. As recently stated by the Fed chair, this is a heated economy, and the impact of the high tariffs on consumers is still a threat to inflation.  They will be considering this as they meet today. Google AI:and Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Conflict between presidents and the federal reserve has a history.   Politicians like to lower rates,, whether they are in a democracy or in a dictatorship.  It is good politics...but it could be a disaster to ignore economics

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Trump's latest attack on the Federal Reserve has a history

.reuters.com/business/fed-keeps-rates-steady-despite-trumps-pressure-with-two-governors-dissenting-2025-07-30/#:~:text=Summary,for%20the%20fifth%20consecutive%20meetingt: 

   

 The price of crude oil, the basis for gas prices, is controlled by Middle East oil cartels, not the president of the US. The announced trade deal with the EU included "investments" in US energy, and the details and impact on the price of crude to consumers are unknown. However, it is beneficial for US oil and gas producers who have been seeking markets for the glut of oil and gas in the ground they are currently experiencing.

The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending June 2025 : The Economics Daily: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics     "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending June 2025, after rising 2.4 percent over the 12 months ending May. Prices for all items less food and energy rose 2.9 percent over the past 12 months, while shelter prices increased 3.8 percent over the last year. "

Lost in the Epstein conspiracy theory flap: what really bugs consumers; it's the economy, stupid

 Lost in the Epstein conspiracy theory flap: what really will bug consumers. It's the economy, stupid. ( Stupid is a reference to some past pre-Trump quotes by long-ago opinion writers. Polls are showing voters are catching on to Trump's failure to live up to his campaign promises on prices)  

I am really getting tired of some MAGA supporters claiming Biden was so bad, and look how good the economy is now in contrast. Therefore, Trump's policies are not hurting the economy, they deduce. BS. The Price of gas and the inflation rate today are within close fractions to what it was in the last month of the Biden presidency in December 2024. (Remember COVID and market dislocation that caused, or did you forget that?). The bad stuff has not yet hit the fan., Tariffs and health care insurance costs, loss of migrant labor, and other factors will not be felt until months from now as inventories of imports wth the lower tariffs or none at all get depleted and sold at retail and crops rot for lack of migrant workers. The full brunt of Trump's cost-of-living-raising policies should be felt in time for the 2026 Congressional election cycle campaigns.

One very strange result of Trump's tariff threats is both MAGA and Democrats may find some common ground. Both may being seeing eye to eye that tarifss are the matter for Congress to decide, not the executive branch. 'Someone gave the President very bad legal advice': Conservative group sues Trump, claims tariffs are a 'presidential power grab that usurps Congress'

More.....

. The impact is already beginning,. Instead of the Epstein conspiracy theory obsessing the House of Representatives and dominating DC news, the GOP-controlled House should be focused on tackling constituent concerns if they care about their political futures. They are not.  They are laying the groundwork for their defeat in the 2026 midterms, but in their loyalty to Trump,  they have fallen on their own swords.  The cost of some consumer goods has already risen.  Trump's tariff policies have already impacted interest rates. Instead of handing their legislative responsibilities over to Trump, the GOP Congress should take back its power over tariffs and health care. These issues should include lowering, not increasing, the cost of Obamacare beginning this January, depriving the sick and elderly. and disabled of their health care provided by Medicaid beginning in November 2026. wrecking access to health care services for rural areas of patients, even those self-insured and paying ones. The impact of many of the health care policies backed by the GOP will be felt during and before the 2026 Congressional elections.  

TACO Trump's tariff policies have already impacted interest rates. The Federal Reserve has said it would have lowered the interest rate but for Trump's tariff threats for increasing them in the future, and now even inflation is creeping up with the threat of higher tariffs. rising last month from 2.4 percent to 2.7 percent. In December 2024, Biden's last month in office, it was 2.9 percent...and we are not far at all from that. Gas at the pump prices are now near what Biden left them in January. And the actual tariff policies have not even taken effect...as Trump TACOs from one delay date to another.

 The stuff has not yet hit the fan, tariffs and health care insurance costs, loss of migrant labor,  and will not be felt until months from now as inventories of imports wth the lower tariffs or none at all get depleted and sold at retail and crops rot for lack of migrant workers. The full brunt of Trump's price raising policies should be felt in time for the 2026 Congressional election cycle campaigns.

A reality check:Inflation breakdown for June 2025 — in one chart

Consumer Price Index Summary - 2025 M06 Results

We do not have governmental price controls like the old communist style countries have and had. Trump's demands that domestic producers swallow the cost of tariffs will be ignored.

Here is why prices have risen.  I am an importer. I care about margins, the difference between sales and costs.  If I do not, I will go out of business. I am in business to make a profit.  Even now, fear of being charged with tariffs means that before customs releases the product to me to sell, I have already been charged up front for the import tariffs, which I pay to the US government, just charged to me on delivery.  If I don't pay the tariff, I don't get the product delivered I imported..  In anticipation of this, being charged so much up front, those who are responsible to their boards of directors or their owners, they increase prices to cover these up-front costs or take other means to compensate: lower quality, lay off workers, use more automation, charging new shipping and handling fees, same price for smaller contents in packages..  And, yes, it is business malpractice not to take this into to consideration and act accordingly. 

 When the Trump government crows about the billions their tariffs are already bringing into the treasury,  what is really happening is that consumers will eventually get charged more to cover the anticipated increased costs of paying tariff duty.  In short, consumers get screwed, and the treasury looks better. It is a cost shift that works like a tax on consumers ...and right now, importers and retailers are increasing prices to cover anticipated up-front duty charges caused by Trump's threats and some actual tariffs now in effect.  

Here is the unanticipated fallout: One would think that the imported product would be so expensive, they could not compete with US domestic producers. That may happen, and they stop importing if it makes no business sense to stay in business in the US.. However,  even 10 to 20% tariffs on imported goods will be passed on to consumers and still be sold on the shelves.   Then domestic producers could see an opportunity to raise their prices to equal the once lower cost of manufacture of imported products, which are now having to pay tariffs and raising their prices to the retailers to recoup the import tariff cost.. Imported products that are produced abroad more cheaply are no longer a factor in market competition, thanks to the tariffs. This competition wth cheaper imports once forced domestic producers to keep their margins as slim as possible.. Instead, without competition from cheaper imports,  some domestic producers are tempted to raise their prices to equal the retail price of imported products.  This is not corporate greed so much as it is market forces at work based on competition in the market..and consideration of what their competitors are charging. 

Buyers beware: con men and billionaires at work updated through 3/22/2025

Update: 3/22/2025 Here is why billionaires and oligarchs should not be in charge of federal human services. This should be shown whenever there is a discussion of Social Security service reductions due to chainsaw Musk. It isn't just Musk. It's the whole Trump regime.

msn.com

'Real America' Won't Mind If They Miss a Social Security Check—Lutnick

"Only a 'fraudster' would care if they miss a

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: What's the big deal about democracy? Who cares?

Continuing with original post:

Buyers beware: if you bought Trump's campaign line about grocery prices and eggs and gas at the pump, he cares not a twit about consumers. He never had powers to roll back grocery prices or even gas at the pump.(crude oil supplies and price per barrel are set in world markets controlled by international cartels) You were conned. He does have the power to raise consumer prices and he thinks he has the power to end protections from financial institutions screwing consumers. He guts the CFPB that protects you from bad-acting financial institutions, raises costs of living by high tariffs, and favors business interests so far in every instance. Trump has admitted consumers will feel the pain from tariffs, but "it will be worth it".Worth it for whom? Not the consumers. For investors, maybe. His announcement regarding a 25% tariff increase for steel and aluminum will further hit consumers with higher prices. Trump's latest tariff plans on steel, aluminum and other imports are spreading uncertainty - ABC News.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/02/10/trump-vs-cfpb-russ-vought-orders-consumer-financial-protection-bureau-to-stop-work/ So what now. Here is what those innocent doze boys have done: engineered the largest data breach of personal data held in the Treasury computers. Good work boys. And today, we learned as the Consumer Finance Protection Agency was being shut down, we got invaluable private consumer data and information. Good work, boys. Four young staffers working under Elon Musk gained access to highly sensitive personal data held by a consumer protection agency before shutting it down. Musk allies given access to private consumer data before shutting down agency: sources

Billions and billions of fraud, shouts Musk...he's got the receipts. One was not an 8 billion dollar contract; it was revised to a 8 million contract ....Typo....Musk. It was caught in an audit and corrected in 2023. Is 125 years old getting Ssoi checks? er that, too, was found in 2023 because it used an obsolete coding system (COBOL) that a geek friend of mine would have been picked up by a second-year IT student...and that Musk and his hackers didn't understand that was "hilarious". Here's the 2023 1875 audit report A 2023 Social Security audit regarding the year "1875" primarily found that a significant number of records contained inaccurate data, often using "1875" as a placeholder for missing birth dates, leading to an inflated count of extremely old beneficiaries receiving benefits, which ultimately concluded that the system needed improved data quality checks to prevent such errors from occurring.

Key points about the "1875" audit finding:

Data inconsistency:

The "1875" date was frequently used in records where a person's birthdate was missing, creating a large number of seemingly very old recipients in the system.

System limitations:

This issue likely arose due to coding limitations in the Social Security system, where a missing date field might default to an arbitrary year like 1875.

Impact on calculations:

While not representing actual beneficiaries, this data inconsistency could skew calculations related to program costs and demographics.

What the audit concluded:

Need for data quality improvements:

The audit highlighted the necessity for enhanced data validation procedures to identify and correct inaccurate birthdates.

System updates:

Recommendations were likely made to modify system coding to prevent automatic "1875" entries when birthdate information is missing.

Are 150-year-old Americans receiving Social Security checks ...

1 day ago — For that reason, under some coding systems, a missing value for a date will default to 1875 — which in the year 2025 prod...

Poynter

What is Social Security?

What is Social Security? Designed to pay retired workers age 65 or older a continuing income after retirement. needs-based program...

Social Security Administration (.gov)

Show more

Are 150-year-old Americans receiving Social Security ...

Poynter

https://www.poynter.org › fact-checking › social-security...

1 day ago — The explanation for apparent 150-year-olds receiving checks could relate to arcane coding practices, experts said.

poynter.org

Poynter

Poynter is a nonprofit media institute and newsroom that provide

White House budget director Russell Vought ordered wider access to Consumer Financial Protection Bureau materials by staffers working for the so-called Department of Government Efficiency over the weekend before agency chief operating officer Adam Martinez ordered all its employees to stay home for the week, reported Bloomberg News.

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Musk's return on investment in Trump has just begun

The 'more sinister' reason behind Musk's attack on consumer protection | Opinion

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Wise up, consumers, to the price of eggs and gas at the pump updated 2/3/2025..