A close friend of mine is in weekly contact with relatives in Germany, and they often discuss American politics. They were excited to learn that Trump was tossed off the ballot and hoped that it was very good news. That caused me to do some more thinking now that Trump has said he will appeal the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to the US Supreme Court. He will still be on ballots, but there still is an important fallout that hurts him more than anything recently. Here is why and how I think it is likely to happen that way. In the meantime, pending a Supreme Court decision (very unlikely before the January 5 deadline for Colorado statutes requiring primary ballots to be printed), Trump's name will still appear on the ballot, per the weekly newspaper Colorado Politics. Trump back on Colorado ballot for 2024 election following appeal - feliciamuftic@gmail.com - Gmail (google.com)
(Update" 1/20/2024: The dumbest part of Trump’s Supreme Court Colorado ballot brief (msnbc.com)) Trump declares he did not swear to support the Constitution when he was inaugurated so therefore he is not subject to the 14th Amendment). If he does win in 2024, what is he going to swear to, and on what bible? A statuette of himself?
First, I had to explain the process to my friend so she could explain it to her relatives. Second, due to an appeal, it will not be decided by the deadline of January 5 to print ballots in Colorado, so his name will be on the ballot.. Third: the US Supreme Court will find a way to weasel out of ruling against Trump.
Fourth, regardless that a state Supreme Court unanimously ruled there was enough evidence that there was an insurrection on January 6, and Truimp was an insurgent, the US Supreme court will say it was not enough. proof. that will be their weasel.
However, the US Supreme Court rules it is a political wake-up call to all but Trump's core supporters. That Trump claims that he is being persecuted unfairly and raises money from it still becomes a weaker-sounding defense than it did before the Colorado Supreme Court ruling, which at least held a trial.
There is a school of thought that Trump can make hay with his persecution complex, whining that this is just another cooked-up libtard conspiracy, but the Colorado suit was brought by Republicans and independents, not Democrats. Early polling shows more than a majority of voters agree with the Colorado Supreme Court finding. The growing distrust in the US Supreme Court has resulted in the lowest opinion of the court in history. It has been and is viewed by many as being dominated by Trump appointees and losing more credibility due to charges of corruption and anger over Roe v Wade being overturned.
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/12/20/edc6d/1
Favorable views of Supreme Court fall to historic low | Pew Research Center
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In the weeds and how to glaze the eyes of my friend's explanation to her German relatives and their eyes, too.
This Colorado case was one state court's opinion; the US Supreme Court will have the chance to even refuse to hear the case (leaving it up to the Colorado Court's ruling to stand). The case is the first judicial finding that Trump was indeed an insurrectionist and January 6 was indeed an insurrection. Trump was indeed subject to the Constitutional amendment under which the case was filed; he was an officer of the US. The Colorado court's ruling on that subject was unanimous, but there are also other states with cases already pending that will wait to see what happens.
Looking ahead, Trupmp's expected appeal to the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) will likely delay a decision on the appeal for months, though oral arguments could come much sooner than that. The US Supreme Court will probably not refuse to hear the case because of the very importance of the issue and the effect it will have on other similar cases. This is not a normal case, but given the US Supreme Court has a super majority of Trump appointees on it, and the US Supreme Court rarely overturns a state Supreme Court ruling, anything could happen. The likely scenario, SCOTUS will find a way to weasel out, using some technical problem with the Colorado law or some "due process" question that Trump was not given a sufficient chance to defend himself enough to prove he was innocent. In short, in time for the Colorado ballot deadline for candidates for the GOP primary election in the spring is January 5, but the appeal will not be decided until long after that and Trump will be on the GOP primary election ballot and not kicked off at this time.
I then went on to explain the issue of "due process". The US Constitution's 14th Amendment lacks of specific remedy, civil or criminal. When I finished, my friend's attention track got lost in the weeds, as any normal person, not a lawyer, would. I only can explain this because I served as the director of a prosecutor's office with lawyers assigned to the unit for seven years early in my career, running a section that had the power to prosecute and charge, and sue under both civil and criminal law. However, after years in public relations and politics, this is indeed politics on steroids. . . Go to: MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Will Trump be kicked off the Colorado ballot? It is more possible than I thought. Update: 12//19/2023
The reason the Colorado case was successful was that it was a civil case, there was a 5 day trial with sworn witnesses and Trump's lawyers represented him, but it was not like a criminal case that required proof "beyond a reasonable doubt", a jury trial,. In a civil case, without a monetary penalty, a judge can rule that the evidence was enough to show one side's evidence and arguments were better than the other side's. In a criminal trial, like the one being brought forward by Jack Smith, the evidence must be beyond a reasonable doubt the defendant is guilty as decided by a jury. There was no jury trial in Colorado since it was a civil suit.. It was one judge's ruling that indeed, Trump' was an insurrectionist, but he was not an officer of the US, so he was not subject to the 14th Amendment and could stay on his party's primary ballot. The Colorado Supreme Court overturned the issue of whether Trump was not an officer. said he was, and they upheld the unanimous Colorado Supreme Court's decision that Trump had aided, abetted, and inspired Jan 6, which was an insurrection in order to remain in power even though he had lost the election. For those hung up on definitions: an insurrection is a rebellion against the Consitution and the government of the US. It originated after the 1860's civil war.. The 14th Amendment does not give a direction of whether the evidence needs to be like a civil case or like a criminal case.
Since this is the first decision invoking that part of the 14th amendment's history and the first time Trump has been found liable for being an insurrectionist (every other case on that issue so far has been just accusatory or an indictment that there was probable cause to hold a trial because there was enough evidence to justify a trial by jury as a criminal case). This holds true not only for Jack Smith but another case in New York and a big one in Georgia. It is suspected that Trump, elected in 2024, would pardon himself if the Smith case found him guilty in a federal case, but the Georgia criminal case is a state case, not a federal case,he could not pardon himself. That could lead to a ludicrous situation that, if elected in 2024, he could expect prison time during his term in office. The Georgia case will likely not be decided until after the November 2024 elections.
One of the questions I got on a private FB discussion site came from a Trump supporter asking why the Coloraod government is subverting democracy. Here is my response:
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