Trump and Putin: dividing up the world. Did you vote for this?

Update: 12/12/2025.In February 1945, at the Yalta conference, the US, UK, USSR, Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin met and came to an agreement that virtually divided the world into two and led to the Cold War for the next 45 years...The USSR claimed Eastern Europe as its sphere of influence, and the Iron Curtain descended within a few months. Roosevelt had died soon after Yalta. Trump is now telling Western Europe and Eastern Europe both, even they are in the sphere of Russian influence. There will be no help from the US. This takes us back to the early 1900s, even worse than the Yalta catastrophe. What happened in 1914 and 1939 was the result. Here we are again in 2025, repeating history. and the stupidity of the isolationists of the past century. Trump has succeeded in de facto destroying the NATO Atlantic alliance, a further echo and potential repeat of the tragedy of the last century. Scroll down for the original post and earlier updates..

Through various reports, Guardian among them, Trump is considering abandoning Ukraine. That is only one issue.. In a so-called American First ideology, Trump is cutting most ties with Western Europe as well. He has already been subverting NATO and its mutual defense purpose and now there is no burden sharing of armaments with Europe. NATO now only exists in issues of nuclear defense..Welcome to the 1938 version of America First.  How did that turn out?

The sad thing about this post is, like in 1938, American citizens did not give a darn of what happened in Europe, and America First isolationism held heavy political inflence is...until Pearl Harbor. The rest of historyis about is US's blood and treasure in World War II. I fear we are about to make the tremendous miscalculation that US defense is not also connected to Europe, with our economic ties and culture, even more entwined than in 1938. If war breaks out in Europe beyond the boundaries of Ukraine, just maybe the uneducated and naive American Firsters may wake up...when it is too late.

Trump is threatening Western Europe with repercussions if it funds Ukraine's defense with Russian funds in Western banks. In December, 2025, the EU defied American pressure and ensured that Hungary and Slovakia cannot veto their use of the funds to help Ukraine. EU triggers emergency clause to indefinitely immobilise Russian assets | Euronews

What Trump is in effect doing he is leaving the sphere of influence across the Atlantic to Russia by his own edict and orders. He recently shifted our Mediterranean fleet from Europe to near Venezuela..., indicating the US sphere of influence is solely the Western Hemisphere. Trump appears to demand Ukraine surrender to Russia's "peace plan" or "'else", terms that will eventually lead to Russia taking over all of that country. This is a striking spoken alliance of Trump and Putin, cutting out Western Europe. In 2026, Trump is laying the groundwork, many fear, to hand Ukraine on a silver platter to Russia, whose stated goal is to reassemble the USSR influence over the countries they lost when the Berlin Wall fell. This is not what America signed up for in 2024, but it is what Trump is actually doing by his actions, deeds, and words.

Back to days even I remember, WWII. It is also repeating history. It is the isolationism that led to WWII, as Japan and Germany thought and miscalculated on the US's resolve to remain isolated. Germany had counted on pro Nazi and American Firsters, who were US politicians, to influence its support for Germany or remain neutral. It is now like 1938 when the UK prime minister handed over part of Czechoslovakia to Hitler and proclaimed it was peace in our time.

Trump thinks he is a dictator and he can get away with this as Congress sleeps an/ord bows down to him, and any violation of laws and the Constitution is no longer punishable thanks to the gift of immunity by "his" 6-3 Supreme Court. What fools we are to tolerate this.

Europe also sees Trump and Putin's contempt of them, reinforcing Trump's disdain of Europe. From the German weekly magazine, Der Spiegel 12.20.2025 in a commentary titled" Trump and Putin, partners in malice."

"The tone Trump strikes toward Europe oscillates between pity, contempt and open hostility. .... "The Trump administration sometimes couches its criticism in the language of concern.......  In practice, though, this means the U.S. government is now officially supporting right-wing populist forces from Stockholm to Madrid. “Cultivating resistance” is the phrase used in the document – which, to the ears of European politicians, sounds suspiciously like regime change.." The article continues that NATO is no longer "burden sharing" with the US when it comes to provisions of armaments. NATO in effect is only sharing nuclear defense with US support, and now  Europe is on its own for assistance for non nuclear defense.  Earlier, Trump had threatened to destroy Article 5 of the NATO treaty  if Europe did not contribute at least 2% of their GDP to their own self defense (these are not "dues" as Trump had deceptively claimed, but a commitment). Europe rose to that and complied ...and exceeded the 2% so now Trump says...it is all 100% yours, on your own, no burden sharing. He has defacto succeeded in destroying the Atlantic alliance, in a repeat of the stupidity of the isolationists of the past century. I

Trump wants to make us 1930 again while Biden points with pride at the present and Harris represents the future

 Trump's slogan should be revised to MAKE AMERICA 1930 AGAIN.   Trump opines that America is a failure, a stupid country, ignoring that America leads the world under Biden/Harris in economic recovery from COVID-19 and has formulated the strongest alliances since the end of World War II.  Instead, Trump sought a country that would join with Russia and dance to its tune on Ukraine, claiming peace in our time then, just like British PM Chamberlain gave away Czechoslovakia to the Nazis in 1937. Like then, there is a determined aggressor to establish a past greatness opening and publicly stated to establish Russia's boundaries of the old USSR now and to destroy the mutual defense treaties standing in its way. Not only does this mimic the influence of German sympathizers in America, which finally led to US involvement in WWII, but it even parrots the title of the 1930s isolationists, American First. Trump's economic policies also echo the mistakes and policies of the 1930s. In 1930,  tariffs were raised on imports, which kicked the Depression into high gear. Trump's plan to raise tariffs on all imports across the board, as was tried then, per 16 Nobel laureate economists recently, would cause both inflation and recession. Like in the 1930s, right-wingers fought tooth and nail against FDR's New Deal supporting access to health care and social security, while MAGA proposes to cut them both back in the Project 2025 vision. Like in the 1930s, the favored group in governance and policy were racially white, reflecting the faces raised at GOP conventions and Trump rallies. To preserve the JIM Crow era of the 1930s, Trump and his Project 2025 want to stamp out diversity and equity, DEI. in government, and his party schemes how to suppress minority voters' access to the ballot. If he loses the elections, Trump's advocacy of political violence will put January 6 on steroids. Like in the 1930s, women are to be relegated to subservient status. control over their own health decisions, or even birth control in the provisions of Project 2025. Taking this a step further is Trump's VP pick of, JD Vance, who says even abused women should stay in their marriage and take the beatings while eliminating no-fault divorce, just as it was in 1930.

Trump trash talks to convince voters that they should abandon democracy for his autocracy. Biden's reason for passing the torch to Kamala is to preserve the democracy we have had for 250 years, realizing his age was standing in the way of why he ran for president in the first place: to stop Trump. Trump's case: Only he can fix stupid and failing America. This contrasts with what Biden has accomplished in three and a half years.

There is unfinished business, but even despite Trump sabotaging a very conservative bi-partisan immigration reform bill, Biden has managed to reduce illegal migrant crossings to the same level they were when Trump left office.  

 Trump and their supporters are speaking the Kremlin line in contrast with Biden, who is building up alliances from NATO to Asia.  Biden's alliances have boxed in aggressive, expansionist countries like China and Russia. In the 1930's it was the rise of Nazi Germany and we know how that turned out. America Firsters opened appeasing doors to Germany then, and, unable to distinguish friends from enemies, they are at it once again in the face of a Russian land grab. That was as stupid in the 1930's as it is now. Even most of NATO is rearming, adding Sweden and Finland, and increasing defense budgets. Germany, which virtually has no standing army, is now rebuilding its military from the ground up.

 In the aftermath of the pandemic, America is leading the world in economic recovery by every measure, and the trend lines are still improving. We have the highest GDP growth, and inflation is down to manageable levels, as the unemployment level is the best in 50 years, and wages rise, too, for those employed. The predicted post-COVID recession never happened.  https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-us-economy-in-global-context

Something is happening to the US economy only seen once before | Daily Mail Online

In the meantime, Trump's convention and stump speeches devolve into Drill Baby Drill (just if oil produces contribute a billion to his campaign.  as gas prices at the pump return to near Trumpian levels) and fears of being electrocuted by electric boats encircled by sharks and windmills killing birds.  Stupid America, stupid DEI, and stupid Kamala are not just dog whistles to racists and sexist misogynists but full-blown trumpets.

Kamala Harris' goals were outlined in recent addresses and will certainly be refined in the coming days,  https://captimes.com/news/elections/kamala-harris-outlines-2025-goals-from-family-leave-to-child-care/article_948a6314-4925-11ef-a44d-23eae6c6cd80.html

  From my June 14 posting:

Trump trashes America; Biden builds it back better.nd convicted of sedition "patriots'; Biden builds our respect better of our fallen warriors at Normandy. He builds up real patriots as role models of patriotism and knows the difference.  https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/09/03/report-trump-disparaged-us-war-dead-as-losers-suckers/

Trump trashes democracy; Biden builds it better by protecting voters' rights and access

Trump trashes justice that does not support him; Biden builds it better with support of justice for all

Trump trashes justice rulings against him; Biden builds better trust in justice even when it rules against his son.

Trump trashes the truth, evidence, and data; Biden builds it better with a policy  based on evidence and data

Trump trashes affordable health care; Biden built it cheaper and better

Trump trashes the military and alliances and appeases foreign dictators; Buiden builds and leads alliances better to protect us from foreign dictators

Trump trashes bipartisanship; Biden builds infrastructure with it.

Trump trashes the rule of law and wants it to be the rule of  by and for Trump; Biden builds it better, supports the rule of by and for the people

Trump trashes the rights of women to control their health care; Biden builds women's control of health choices better by restoring  rights they had in Roe v Wade

 From my readers responding on Facebook sites with their own Trump trashes/Biden builds:

.Trump trashes public health by keeping lead in pipes that carry drinking water; Biden builds public health by funding the massive replacement of lead pipes and drinking water cleanup with his Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

Trump trashes public lands and rants that he'd allow dumping nuclear waste in rivers; Biden builds public protection by working to restore and protect our Clean Water Act.

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Who is the stupid one, looking at where Biden has taken us>

 

The twisted propaganda of 'Trump oratory turns black into white and definitions upside down

The twisted propaganda of 'Trump's oratory turns black into white and definitions upside down.

With President Biden now out of the race, the torch has been passed to Kamala Harris today. I hope the other wannabes out there comply now; disavow any more ambition to take a fight to the DNC convention...and let's get the show on the road.

 Harris has two strikes against her: She is partially Black and a woman. She has two assets in particular on her behalf: She is partially Black, and she is a woman....the perfect counter to a racist MAGA and a hyper-masculine Hulk Hogan/ Trump chest-thumping narcissism of the GOP candidate.    Democrats almost elected a woman before, and they accepted and won with Obama..  Go Kamala, and finish the job Joe Biden started, to save us from Trump, who showed his racism so many times, from the Golden Escalator to Charlottesville, and now wants to be a dictator on day one.  Biden could have had the choice to continue, but to finish the job he set out to do, he made the greatest sacrifice a politician could make.  He is not only a great president, he is a great man.

t(Update 8/9/2024  Of Trump's greatest tricks of turning black into white if he is self aware  unconsously of doing it is called by psychologists "projection".  When criticized, Trump often responds by pinning the act on someone else.  Here are some examples of that: Here are some examples of this trick: It is called "projection," and it is a way to deflect criticism. These are from CNN and perhaps you have some examples from one of your preferred sources.  https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/24/opinions/trumps-absurd-projection-reveals-his-anxiety-avlon/index.html?

It should be crystal clear to those not in the Trump core in America, by Trump's own twisted definition, autocracy (dictatorship on day one) is not a democracy, yet that is what he is claiming when at a recent rally post-assassination attempt; he "took a bullet for democracy." By making America as weak as it was in the 1930s, America will not be as ""great again. "That decade was when its isolationists led to adversaries' miscalculations about America's will to resist, and they attacked the US. This Trump mantra is upside-down crazy talk, and it takes low-information voters to swallow this as the gospel truth. When it finally gets its act together, the Democratic party has plenty of ammunition to make its case, but it needs to sharpen its messaging and get in the MAGA's face to succeed. So far, they have failed to counter outrageous propaganda messages by Trump. 

Here's the case Democrats can make, and they need to task their wordsmiths to do it.

As he speaks, Trmp's party already has minions in place to overturn the November 2024 election should he lose the electoral vote (the most fundamental element of democracy: rule by the people) using pre-positioned loyal election officials and even political violence. (This is not  election integrity, but the opposite by election administration manipulation ) The blueprint for becoming an autocrat is in black and white in Project 2025, turning the executive branch and 50 thousand federal employees staffed by ideologues into a spoils system demanding all adhere to an ideology instead of allegiance to the rule of law and the Constitution. Trump tried that through Schedule F when he was in office but was stopped by staff. Now, his staff will be yes men in another term. Names have already been taken, and replacements have been applied and verified as true to their allegiance to the Heritage Foundation ideology.  Trump is beginning to understand how obnoxious Project 2025 is and trying to distance himself. He needs to be forced to tell just what part of Project 2025 he does not support. He should not be allowed to weasel out with a blanket "Well, it is radical and parts unnamed I disagree with").

 Especially damning are those parts in Project 2025 and elsewhere. Trump tried before and failed, but now can do it and succeed thanks to the Supreme Court's presidential immunity gift and loyalist appointments. Among them is putting Schedule F on steroids to replace civil servants with loyalists to the Project 2025 manifesto.  Trump has a history of political violence regarding the January 6 riots by "patriots" he summoned to the Capitol;   his demand of generals to conduct armed active military suppression of demonstrations (Lafayetttte Square, later orating the generals should be executed for that): calling neo-Nazi's fine people (Charlottesville); and his attempt to force and scare Pence to join in the fake electors' scheme.  

https://apnews.com/article/rnc-election-monitoring-trump-republicans-voter-fraud-997947656e0b5d5d16cc4353bd726452

Trump opines that America is a failure, ignoring that America leads the world under Biden/Harris in the economy's recovery from Covid and has formulated the strongest alliances since the end of World War II.  Instead, he sought a country that would join with Russia and dance to its tune on Ukraine, claiming peace in our time then (just as Chamberlain gave away Czechoslovakia in 1937. Like then, there is a determined aggressor to establish a past greatness opening and publicly stated of Germany then and to establish Russia's boundaries of the old USSR now) and to destroy the mutual defense assistance to and from allies. Not only does this mimic the actions leading to US involvement in WWII, it even parrots the title of the 1930s isolationists, American First. Trump's economic policies also echo the mistakes and policies of the 1930s. In the 1930s, tariffs were raised on imports, which kicked the Depression into high gear. Trump's plan to raise tariffs on all imports across the board, as was tried then, Per 16 Nobel laureate economists, in modern times, would cause inflation and recession. Like in the 1930s, right-wingers fought tooth and nail against supporting access to health care and social security and weakening them both in the Project 2025 vision. Like in the 1930s, the favored group in governance and policy were racially white, reflecting the faces raised at GOP conventions and Trump rallies.   Like in the 1930's, women are to be relegated to subservient status and no control over their own health decisions, or even birth control,  both in the provisions of Project 2025 (ideal family: women at home, men working, etc) and in his political party, as well as in his VP pick of JD Vance, who says even abused women should stay in their marriage and take the beatings.

 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ngwzd4y83o  This is how British Broadcasting, with no dog in this American election fight, explained in context Trump's claim to their fellow Brits that "he took the bullet for democracy" and that he will, of course, make America great again. Our media could take some lessons from the BBC. 

Message to MAGAs in the House: you should change your slogan to MAWA, updted Feb. 16-23,, 2024

 This is not mincing words:  Stupid is as stupid does. The MAGA House claiming dead on arrival the national security bill the Senate is sending you makes  America not great again, but weak again.  You deserve to be branded as MAKE AMERICA WEAK AGAIN.

On NATO and Trump's long-time plans to kill the alliance and let Russia do the hell they want with NATO allies: two most historically consequential stupid quotes: Neville Chamberlain on Nazi annexation of Sudetenland:: "Peace in our time" and gave the green light for Hitler to begin World War II. Trump: Let Russia do the hell they want with NATO allies. Belly up to an aggressor only whets their appetite.

date 2/( 23/2024) Plan B: Should Speaker Johnson beat down a movement to force him to bring Ukraine aid to the floor, because he knows he would lose, if that fails, there may be a plan B to support Ukraine. While this concept was applied to post-Ukraine, assuming it survives this conflict, I wonder if it could be applied to funding military aid. Use of Russian treasure held in Western banks could be tapped. Post-conflict reconstruction was discussed recently by Fareed Zakaria on CNN. Western Nations holding Russian funds should freeze them and set up a reconstruction fund for Ukraine, not only funding Ukrainians from Russian money but also providing a reconstruction fund kept out of the hands of Russia. I am not sure of the legality of this but after I wrote this, I heard the former ambassador to Russia on MSNBC suggest this. He carries enormous weight. We will know the week of Feb. 25 when the House returns to work. and the discharge petition forces Mike Johnson to bring to a vote. Update Feb 25.: on MSNBC review I heard an interview I missed .. Rep Jim Hines believes that will be the ultimate solution. The only question is whether to take the interest of the 300 billion Western banks have in Russia or the principle. If the bulk of it is in Swiss banks, that will be a difficult job, but for the first time in history, the Swiss have been supporting one of the combatants, Ukraine and NATO, instead of being neutral.

https://www.eda.admin.ch/deza/en/home/countries/ukraine.html#:~:text=Switzerland%20supports%20Ukraine%20on%20its,democracy%20and%20strengthen%20local%20governance.

Update: 2/12/2024 https..2/16/2024 /www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfVQcMM1fK4   Trump confirms again and even suggests it is OK if Russia attacks our NATO allies if they do not pay up their share. Same song, off-key verse. Sheer is horrifying and confirming that Trump is an FOP, a friend of Putin, not the US.  He sang this in his term in the Whtie House and then forgot Europe had stepped up to the contribution plate. His brain has calcified and his head-nodding followers are a bunch of ignorants, like lemmings following their leader back to 1938.  Stupid does when ignorant is.  Here is per capita NATO contributions per member per capita per percent of GDP.  Trump is hoping anyone hearing him is ignorant enough to swallow this. https://www.google.com/search?q=nato+contributions+by+country+per+capita&rlz=1CAJFMC_enUS1016US1016&oq=nato+contributions+by+country+per&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0i512j0i390i512i650l2.120405415j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8   

Both Congress and Germany have gotten the memos: https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407-congress-approves-bill-barring-president-withdrawing-nato/#:~:text=Congress%20approves%20bill%20barring%20any%20president%20from%20unilaterally%20withdrawing%20from%20NATO,-by%20Laura%20Kelly&text=Congress%20has%20approved%20legislation%20that,or%20an%20Act%20of%20Congress.

The update is that NATO meeting in February, 2024, the average contribution is now 2% and all members are pledged to meet those minimum goals.  In addition, the European Union this month pledged $54 bilion to keep the Ukrainian government afloat. 

Update: 2/12/2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfVQcMM1fK4   Trump confirms again and even suggests it is OK if Russia attacks our NATO allies if they do not pay up their share. Same song, off-key verse. Sheerly horrifying and confirming that Trump is an FOP, a friend of Putin, not the US.  He sang this in his term in the Whtie House and then forgot Europe had stepped up to the contribution plate. His brain has calcified and his head-nodding followers are a bunch of ignorants, like lemmings following their leader back to 1938.  Stupid does when ignorant is.  

The European Union voted to give $54 billion to Ukraine. Viktor Orban of Hungary came around, too.The money will help Kyiv keep its economy running in 2024 and sustain essential services such as health care, social protection and pensions. https://www.npr.org/2024/02/01/1228316748/eu-ukraine-aid-hungary-orban

The 'AGAIN' in MAGAland,  means 1938, back to the failed past. Japan and Germany both looked at America Firsters and the neoNazi momentum in the USA to mean we were too self-centered to want to fight back, so they both looked at our isolationism as a weakness to be exploited, not a strength to admire.  Japan saw us asleep at the wheel and sneaked up on Pearl Harbor; Germany counted on the strong pro-Nazi, American First movement to keep us out of the European war.

 The 'AGAIN' in MAGAland,  means 1938, back to the failed past. Japan and Germany both looked at America Firsters and the neoNazi momentum in the USA to mean we were too self-centered to want to fight back, so they both looked at our isolationism as a weakness to be exploited, not a strength to admire.  Japan saw us asleep at the wheel and sneaked up on Pearl Harbor; Germany counted on the strong pro-Nazi, American First movement to keep us out of the European war.  The hard lesson both Japan and Germany learned took over four years and thousands of American lives to teach them..  The lesson America learned was that if you do not take leadership in the world, someone else we lead us. We will dance to their tune. of making Russia great again and China reaching their goals of dominance economically.  I would be in favor of the USA deciding its destiny, not Russia and China, but if we fail to keep up with our international obligations and self-interest in this legislation and elect an FOP (friend of Putin), this is what we will become.

 Not voting for all four elements makes MAGA look like national security is not in crisis and a hostage to Trump's political strategy to keep the chaos going so only he can fix it if he ever gets in the White House again so he can stop aid to Ukraine and months more of border crisis will be dumped in his lap, having passed the opportunity to accept Biden's acceptance of most of the border hawks wanted. The non-MAGA public is not as naive as Trump thinks and wonders what happened to the "crisis"? The crisis is Trump himself.  Trump is leading MAGA down a primrose path of FOP , Friends of Putin, as Putin just sits until Trump gets into office.  and hands over world leadership to Putin himself to call the tune to which America must dance.  Trump's boasting of his negotiation skills simply plans just to capitulate to their aggressions, making us a loser by choice.

Of course, for Trump it damages his strategy by taking away his main pitch for being president, , anti-immigrants and suppression of "others", dating from birtherism and coming down the golden escalator to save us from brown immigrants who were" murderers and rapists" and the Muslim ban.. Trump had four years to come up with his own solution at the border and failed to do it. If elected again, Democrats can consider any deal "dead on arrival" too,in return, if they control one house of Congress. They had to make the offer at risk to losing the Hispanic vote.  In spite of that,   Biden handed Trump a victory, and he failed to accept it. Donald Trump Warns Border Bill is 'Death Wish' for Republicans (newsweek.com)  Trump could have promoted the deal as giving himself credit because of his dogged efforts. But, no.  As usual, it is all about him and his power lust and platform based on hatred of immigrants and "others" that appeals to his like-minded base and not about the country or solving a real crisis.

Ronna McDaniel to decide soon on resigning as Donald Trump's GOP chair (usatoday.com)Ronna McDaniel to decide soon on resigning as Donald Trump's GOP chair (usatoday.com)

Did Putin miscalculate? updated Feb. 21. April 7, May 8, 2022

Update April 7, 2022, May 8, 2022: Within a few days after the Feb.21 update, Russia invaded.  It was clear Putin had miscalculated, but so had the rest of the world. The common wisdom was that Putin's army would be in Kiev and 'Zelenski would have been taken out in three days.  The Feb. 21 column below missed an important element, the leadership of Zelenski who refused to be evacuated as Russian troops advanced into Ukraine and told the US offer, don't send me transportation, send me weapons. Further rallies were from the Snake Island defenders, who told the Russian warship to go f ...yourself...an icon that became a battle cry of defiance.  /The rest is playing out before our eyes on  television.Russia’s Grave Miscalculation: Ukrainians Would Collaborate - The New York Times (nytimes.com.  We all, Putin included, underestimated the strength of the human spirit to resist tyranny.   

Update February 21, 2022 continues. This may have been Putin's epic miscalculation. Over 50 percent of Ukrainians oppose Putin's invasion...and most of those would take up armed opposition or civil demonstrations. Ukrainians were supposed to put their ethnic ties with Russia above national identity and desire to be in the western economic and democratic orbit. In fact, there was a bloodless coup that resulted in the pro-Russian president fleeing to Moscow. and a democratic election of a new president. Putin may have expected Ukrainians would quietly accept a Russian quisling government and Russian troop occupation. Putin was only half right. His problem is where he is half wrong. The opposition was going to be deadly and drawn out as the outgunned Ukrainian military planned to fade into the population and undertake urban guerilla warfare. They have been trained and weaponized for that by the West. In effect, there was going to be a bloody civil war. The question is whether the Russian public has much stomach for that, believing Ukrainians were close ethnic cousins. This is why there is speculation Putin planned to cook up Ukrainian aggression against Russians within and outside Ukraine as an excuse to give Russians a justification and why the body bag count of dead Russian soldiers could damage Putin's political grip in Russia itself. With 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian borders, that Ukraine would attack Russians is a very unbelievable story. The US landing tons of small arms weapons and ammunition for use by pro-western Ukrainians is part of the credible threat that body bags filled with Russian soldiers would be sent back to Russia is a real threat to Putin and as a rational actor, he may be taking into account and his calculation in the timing. It takes time for the effects to be felt and perhaps he thinks he can beat down opposition and consolidate power before his own populace feel the blowback. . The Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan once the maimed and dead soldiers were in critical numbers to overcome their government propaganda to any contrary. That Putin cares about sanctions, no matter how extreme, is doubtful and it would take some time before Russian consumers would feel the pinch. Those massive refugees would result in the Russian invasion is also a slow developing anti-Russian propaganda impact. He may save face by a smaller incursion where the population is more to his liking, formalizing his prior stealth take over Donbas and breaking it from the rest of Ukraine and getting a better land bridge to Crimea. We will see. with a few weeks while frozen ground can give tanks traction. Update Feb. 21: https://www.vox.com/2022/2/21/22944995/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-troops-ukraine-east-donbas /The response from the West will determine whether he gets away with that without triggering massive sanctions and succeeds in taking the whole enchilada.

The original February 7, 2022 posting continues: There is speculation that Putin may have been influenced by the USA's messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, thinking that the America was so weak and lacked resolve or desiring isolationism, that it would not get heavily involved in a Russian military invasion of Ukraine. This is the danger of MAGA. It makes the US look weaker, not greater. We do not know what is in Putin's head, but if he thought the isolationist had won in the US, as evidenced by the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, the weak response to Russia's military grabs in Georgia, Syria and Crimea, he miscalculated. If Putin pays little for marching into Ukraine and the west does not inflict pain on him for doing so, others will take that as a green light and try it elsewhere such as China with its designs on Taiwan. Serbia and Bosnian Serbs still have hopes the northern half of Bosnia (ethnic cleansed of Muslims and Croatian Catholics in the 1990's civil war) would become part of Greater Serbia and are watching for the intensity of western response to Russia's actions in Ukraine. The MAGA movement period is similar to the America First and isolationist era in the 1930s. The pro-fascist movement in the US gained steam and adherents in spite of FDR's disposition to the contrary. Before TV and and the internet, America had radio and fascist, isolationist media personalities like Father Coughlin, with a large radio following and an anti-Semitic demagogue supporting German fascism. . The 1938–39 deplatforming of Father Coughlin. (slate.com)The Father Coughlin of our era is FOX news and Tucker Carlson. Carlson's spiel is not anti-Semitism, but an admirer of autocracy instead of democracy and an apologist of Putin's rule and expansionism. He ignores the anti-Semitism that tinges these autocrats, especially Viktor Orban of Hungary.. Tucker Carlson Says Ukraine Isn’t Important. These Key GOP Voters Beg to Differ. - POLITICO. Tucker Carlson, Hungary, and the right’s embrace of authoritarianism - Vox   Hitler, maybe have thought, thought the US would be content to remain in Fortress America. Before Pearl Harbor, America stood by while Czechoslovakia's ethnic German Sudetenland province was handed over to Germany, (to get Peace in our Time0, Poland was invaded, Anschluss with Austria was finalized, France and Norway fell to the Germans, Britain was pulverized in the Blitz and the US was asleep at the wheel until December 7th, 1941. One wonders what kind of a country we would have been had not Pearl Harbor happened. It gave FDR the political winds in his back to fight a two-front war as the American public realized that isolationism did not work with airplanes as the new weapon in the sky. The world in 2022 is even more intertwined by trade, alliances, and technology, cyber vulnerability, and nuclear weapons with intercontinental reach than it was then.

These kinds of conflicts do not end well. This reminds me of the horrific Bosnian war of ethnic cleansing in the first half of the-1990s and the death of 100,000 civilians.. Until now, this was the only hot war in Europe since World War II. The Serbs lost their attempt to expand the boundaries to encompass all of their ethnic kinfolks and their president died in the Hague awaiting trial for crimes against humanity. The result is that the current population of Bosn1a, once similar to Colorado's, has decreased from 5 million in 1991, the beginning of the conflict, to 3 million, resulted in massive emigration, is the poorest per capita economy in Europe, still subject to ethnic strife and threatened with renewed violence and break up. My fear is that Ukrainians would devolve into this tragedy. The size of the impact dwarfs the Bosnia conflict. The population of Ukraine is 44 million. and the threat extends to all former Russian satellites bordering it

My interest in this is personal. I also fear for any number of my relatives by blood and marriage and good friends with similar ties in Poland, the Baltics, and the Balkans though less so Hungary and Austria, who have maintained cordial relations with Russia. Even friends with relatives in Germany are nervous about a Russian invasion in their neighborhood. All of them are targets of Putin's desire to reassemble the old Soviet Union boundaries and spheres of influence. They have enjoyed the peace and more prosperity after the fall of the Berlin Wall. I have often written about eastern Europe in this blog, drawing on over 50 years of being married to a remarkable person from the Balkans, studying in post-war Berlin, in seminars on eastern Europe in college, and spending a measurable part of my life there on family visits. My particular interest is Bosna, with close relatives by marriage there, a fascination with its history of cultural conflicts beginning my first visit in 1959. In 2020 I completed a six-year project of humanitarian aid through Rotary, writing, and championing three grants there that brought me physically there and close friendships. Our family business is the importation and distribution of cosmetics to the US from Croatia.

My views of Russia are not frozen in the cold war any more than are Putin's He was the last KGB station chief in Dresden, as the wall came down. Those former satellites have enjoyed peace and increasing prosperity with their alignment with the west since then. They have understood and cherished the freedom of political expression and economic advantages of a freer market society. Putin has replaced Marxist-Leninist doctrine with oligarch capitalism and hyper-nationalism. His methods of governance however are similar to the old USSR, punishing those who challenge his accumulation of wealth, power, and loyalty to him with more finesse and secrecy than the show trials of old. Poison, imprisonment, mysterious assassinations of dissidents are his tools. The breakup of the old Soviet Union he believes was a tragedy and the reassembly of that empire is his stated goal. So far he has been successful in Georgia, Syria, and Crimea. Putin is apparently planning to go "full Stalinist" if he takes over Ukraine by military force. This would be right out of Putin's KGB playbook: "The U.S. has warned the United Nations that it believes Russia has plans to kill large numbers of critics, dissidents and "vulnerable populations" in Ukraine" https://news.yahoo.com/russia-plans-target-dissidents-ukraine-060948378.htm

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-lists-ukrainians-killed-sent-055416138.html "Washington has warned the UN rights chief that Russia has lists of Ukrainians "to be killed or sent to camps" in the event of an invasion, according to a letter... "     If  US intelligence agencies know about this list, hopefully they know who is on it and is warning them.   

It is assumed both Russia and the West have more accurate polling, but here is what is public:Poll: Over half of Ukrainians will actively resist Russian invasion (kyivindependent.com) /The pollster is the CNN like news network of India, which does not have a stake in the outcome of any Russian invasion of Ukraine)Every third Ukrainian ready to put up armed resistance to Russians: Study, World News | wionews.com