Showing posts with label Clinton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Clinton. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 14, 2023

The court of public opinion will try the Trump classified doc case until the real deal

 Fair enough, if the Trump document case ever gets to trial in time to make any difference., since it landed in a court whose judge could delay, delay, delay until other states and federal criminal cases get decided before the summer of 2024. In the meantime, the indictment case laid out in the detailed indictment charges that presented their evidence of Trump's intent to obstruct the investigation. As the public becomes more aware of the DOJ's indictment contents, the court of public opinion will be the judge and jury until the real trial settles it. The national security nature of the documents that were the subject of this kicked it up to something more serious than what we knew at the beginning of the investigation, which began way before Trump announced his candidacy.

What sets Trump's case apart from Pence, Biden, and Clinton was there was either no proof of intent to obstruct ( as Barr, Trump's DOJ, concluded about Clinton) or they returned the documents voluntarily when asked. What about other cases, Hillary and a long list of others sent to prison recently, recently, have no meaning in a trial. They do have importance at the sentencing if Trump pleads or is found guilty. Trials are not about "what about X", but what about the accused, in this case, Trump. Some recently got a slap on the hand and others went to prison, depending on the facts in the cases.

Every time some Trump supporter raises " What about X" as their only defense, the answer is "What about Trump"? And then to repeat, repeat and repeat the details in the indictment, including witnesses and conversation recordings. What about the pictures? What about the recordings and issues of the attempt to fool his own attorney? etc. In time, those who have the temerity to "what about", deflect and deceive will give the opportunity for the other side to push back. The pushback must be always made to make this approach to educate the public about the indictment contents to get equal time.

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Saturday, December 8, 2018

Impeachment? Not so fast

A version of this was published in the Sky Hi News Dec. 11-12, 2018
https://www.skyhinews.com/news/opinion/opinion-muftic-impeachment-not-so-fast/

Immediately last Friday after Michael Cohen’s sentencing memo was filed, President Trump crowed he was cleared and the opposition media claimed there were grounds for impeachment because the President was in effect an unindicted co-conspirator of a crime, which was closer to reality. Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s court filings regarding Paul Manafort were either redacted or sealed, revealing little.

Often cited are precedents set by both the impeachment of Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton.   Neither Nixon nor Clinton was found guilty or was removed from office by Congressional votes. A simple majority in the House can vote to impeach,  but  two-thirds of the Senate must  agree to find him guilty and remove him from office.

 Impeachment is not so much a matter of law  as it is a political action. Voters’ opinions can  give members of Congress political backbones: Clinton’s public  job approval ratings polled  during the impeachment/trial remained over 70% and 66% were against removing him from office over the issue of lying and coverup of sexual misconduct.   Nixon, after release of the tapes, dropped from winning the prior election to  a 31%  job approval with 43% opposing removal from office.  During Nixon’s threatened impeachment, Democrats , the opposition party, controlled both House and Senate with significant majorities. Republican Nixon  resigned before the House could vote  to impeach because tapes were made public that confirmed his guilt. Like Nixon, Clinton's  opposition party, Republicans,  controlled both the Senate and the House though the vote even in the GOP controlled Senate fell short of the two thirds needed and he was acquitted. In Donald Trump's case, the House will be in the hands of Democrats ; the Senate's majority party is Trump's.

The current  public mood  should give the GOP shudders. It is similar to Nixon’s. The key public voter question is whether the actions of the President as charged by Congress  justifies his removal from office , which is the end result of a Senate conviction.  Trump’s  current job approval is around 40% with 42% opposed to his removal from office per a June 2018 poll.  This is  before we know much of what  Special Counsel Robert Mueller has found.

 That Democrats gained a decisive majority in the House of Representatives in  November means they have the simple majority  of votes  needed to impeach Trump  without any GOP help  At this moment it is a debatable intra party question of whether impeachment is an effective political strategy, distracting from promoting their public policy  agenda.  GOP control of the Senate would block removal of the president  at this time in any case. 

So far, public knowledge of facts implicating Trump is thin. Recently filed  court documents do indicate  business financial gain could have been his motivation to commit crimes of conspiracy/collusion and obstruction of justice.  The closest to fingering Donald Trump himself came  last week in the Michael Cohen case filings in which Cohen claimed he was instructed by the President  to break campaign finance  laws.  That  the President intended  to pay for silence of women with whom he had affairs was to protect family peace, not campaign purposes as Cohen claims, could be a reasonable  defense.   Whether the public would think lying and coverup of sexual misdeeds  alone justifies  removing  him from office is  very questionable.    It makes sense to wait for Mueller’s report and findings of Democratic dominated House  committees.
______________________________________________________________________________
https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/22/politics/impeach-trump-nixon-support-bill-clinton-poll/index.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/29/politics/michael-cohen-guilty-plea-misleading-congress/index.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-tower-moscow-it-was-the-end-of-a-long-failed-push-to-invest-in-russia-1543532455
Footnotes: On Friday, December 7, 2018  the Southern District of New York's sentencing memo regarding Michael Cohen repeated the charge that Cohen committed a crime by arranging a method to pay off two women who knew of Trump's immoral and unfaithful conduct  for the principal purpose  that they would remain silent during the campaign. Significantly, the SDNY filing said that Cohen committed the crime under the direction of the president.  This could be very damning for the president, though he cannot be indicted for doing it. Any punishment would have to be through the impeachment process. Trump claimed immediately he was "totally cleared". .  The SDNY filings regarding Cohen said that he had been helpful, but not fully. The Mueller fillings said Coehn had been helpful on  the Russian conncection and that Cohen's jail term could be served at the same time as the judge ruled in the SDNY case.
Both the Clinton impeachment case and the Michael Cohen/Trump charges involved lying and covering up sexual misconduct.  Some Republicans voted not to convict Clinton, and all Democrats stood by their man.  Later public opinion polls showed 57% the public did not want Clinton to lose his job over the issue and they considered the impeachment harmful to the country (Gallup via Wikipedia summary)
The Mueller filings regarding Manafort pointed to lies  to the Special Counsel about his coordination with the White  House in 2018 and lies about his contacts with Konstantin Kilimnik, his associate, who had ties with Russian military intelligence, the DNC hackers.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/07/politics/michael-cohen-robert-mueller-donald-trump/index.html

Also see the prior blog posting 12/3/2018. The tangled web of Trump-Russian deceit.

If sexual misconduct, lying and coverup did not reach the "time does not fit the crime" in the Cllinton case , i.e. the offense was not the reason for the Senate to convict because it was not serious enough and the administration's ability to conduct business (high job approval rating), then the "high crimes" needed to be something worse.  Worse could be  treason, bribery and a serious high crime...definition is up to the House to say what it is. What would be "high" enough to warrant a Senate conviction?  Look for  proof beyond reasonable doubt of treason  (collusion, conspire) to work against US, bribery..a tit for tat like: Russia will help Trump win if he gets sanctions against Russians lifted; money lauundering, emoluments clause violations, tax evasion, and whatever else the House defines.   Another nagging problem is can a President be impeached for what he did before he took office?  The other problem: the DOJ has its own rules that a sitting president cannot be indicted for a crime, but nothing in the Constitution forbids this. If the offenses took place before the President was sworn in, he could be indicted after he left office and prosecuted, though. 



Monday, September 19, 2016

How Hillary Clinton could turn the terrorist attacks to her advantage

Spooking the herd...New Jersey, New York, and Minnesota terrorist attacks...could be bad news for Clinton.  It plays into Trump's rhetoric and the fear factor upon which his candidacy has been based. The irony is that Clinton's reputation is that of an interventionist hawk and Trump talks a good game about being the hammer and fist, but has attempted to paint himself as an isolationist and a go it alone reliance on American military strength.  There are very few who do not recognize that the US cannot fight ISIS alone and that it takes a concerted effort world wide of allies, both European and Arab and other Muslims, to get the job done.  A strong case can be made is that Trump will not be able to lead the winning coalition.

Strength is what Trump radiates, but it is brute strength appealing to those who want a solution that is simple to grasp, but it the kind of strength that is blind, a counterproductive lash out.  Recent comments by Robert Gates and revealed in emails from Colin Powell that the world views Trump as a pariah and he insults to all of the Muslim world, dramatized by his stand on the Muslim ban. This makes him unfit to gather the kind of coalition we need and the cooperation we need from US Muslims.

Clinton must make it clear in the debates that she has the strategy to unite the world to defeat ISIS and that brute military strength conducted solo by the US will not work...and what Trump's strategy is doomed to failure because of his campaign of fear and hatred.  Clinton has at least the knowledge and understanding to be effective, while Trump is a bull in a china closet, doing more damage than good and inspite of his heated rhetoric is doomed to failure.


Friday, August 26, 2016

Trump v Clinton: who is a bigot? Their supporters,the candidates themselves? Updated

Hillary Clinton presented a lawyer- like case using Donald Trump's own words that he was reflecting the racist, hateful views of the alt right and that  she charged the alt right was now running his campaign. In advance of her remarks, Trump tried to turn the tables by claiming she was saying  that all of his supporters were racists and that Clinton was the real bigot. Clinton was careful to pin Trump to the racist right, not to his supporters as a whole. She did not use the word "bigot".. Of course Trump's supporters have other reasons to support him, control of supreme court appointments, party loyalty, personal dislike of Clinton, political philosophy, fear of national security, and a desire for change of "a rigged"  political system, and they prioritize those worries ahead of concerns about whether Trump is racist or not.

Trump's attempt to call Hillary Clinton a bigot is in keeping with his  tactic of  accusing her with the same charge that makes himself vulnerable then or in the future. His calling Clinton as crooked was one way to counter charges he is a con man supporting  the practices of Trump University. His painting Clinton as untrustworthy ignores that his poll numbers are even worse in that same category.  His calling Clinton a liar is one way to counter fact checkers documenting that Trump himself is the one who made far more claims that were rated as lies and exaggerations.

 Who is Trump fooling?  If Trump hoped to appeal to minorities  or even moderate, inclusive desiring none  minority people with his bigotry charge based on the failure of Democratic mayors  to solve the problems plaguing urban African Americans, he is likely to get a guffaw from African Americans and others who know better. They know Clinton's forty years of her public life. and the role the GOP has played in stonewalling or proposing  legislation that would  help those in urban areas, attempts  from reducing nutrition support ,and subverting  public education,  and even opposing the mildest gun control  legislation.   They also know that there has been a concerted effort by the GOP to make it harder  and more inconvenient for minorities to vote or about  abusive police practices,  issues ignored by Trump.. 

Trump's attempt to paint Hillary with the sins of her husband may also realize that many of those in the African American community consider Bill Clinton the "first African American president" because of his closeness to the Black community. In contrast, Trump was the most vocal  American voice in trying to de-legitimize President Obama's citizenship with his claim Obama was born in Kenya. His propensity to attribute all minorities to the actions of a few,  including claiming  a federal judge could  not be objective in a law suit against him  because he was Mexican, was not gone unnoticed by Hispanics.  Neither unnoticed  has  been Trump's his continued  and most recent support of expelling all undocumented. (prioritizing the first to go as the bad guy criminal law breakers and  implying eventually expelling  all  "good" people , too,  depriving them of any sort of legal status or citizenship).

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/transcript-hillary-clinton-alt-right-reno-227419

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/27/business/media/breitbart-news-presidential-race.html?emc=edit_th_20160827&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=33304952&_r=0

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/lists/people/comparing-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-truth-o-met/

https://www.yahoo.com/news/alt-beginners-guide-000000002.html
hhttp://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/08/25/5-facts-about-trump-supporters-views-of-immigration/

http://www.salon.com/2016/07/06/the_disturbing_data_on_republicans_and_racism_trump_backers_are_the_most_bigoted_within_the_gop/

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/donald-trump-and-the-politics-of-fear/498116/

Trump v Clinton: who is a bigot? Their supporters,the candidates themselves? Updated

Hillary Clinton presented a lawyer- like case using Donald Trump's own words that he was reflecting the racist, hateful views of the alt right and that  she charged the alt right was now running his campaign. In advance of her remarks, Trump tried to turn the tables by claiming she was saying  that all of his supporters were racists and that Clinton was the real bigot. Clinton was careful to pin Trump to the racist right, not to his supporters as a whole. Of course Trump's supporters have other reasons to support him, control of supreme court appointments, party loyalty, personal dislike of Clinton, political philosophy, fear of national security, and a desire for change of "a rigged"  political system, and they prioritize those worries ahead of concerns about whether Trump is racist or not.

Trump's attempt to call Hillary Clinton a bigot is in keeping with his  tactic of  accusing her with the same charge that makes himself vulnerable then or in the future. His calling Clinton as crooked was one way to counter charges he is a con man supporting  the practices of Trump University. His painting Clinton as untrustworthy ignores that his poll numbers are even worse in that same category.  His calling Clinton a liar is one way to counter fact checkers documenting that Trump himself is the one who made far more claims that were rated as lies and exaggerations.

 Clinton did not use the word "bigot" in her speech but  connected Trump  to racism using his  own words , praise from the his white supremacist supporters,  and his  campaign manager's association with the alt right web site, Breitbart, that promoted conspiracy theories and racist, sexist,  comments. That is not  Clinton's using that particular B word, but instead she provided the definition and showed how he fit into it. 

 Who is Trump fooling?  If Trump hoped to appeal to minorities  or even moderate, inclusive desiring none  minority people with his bigotry charge based on the failure of Democratic mayors  to solve the problems plaguing urban African Americans, he is likely to get a guffaw from African Americans and others who know better. They know Clinton's forty years of her public life. and the role the GOP has played in stonewalling or proposing  legislation that would  help those in urban areas, attempts  from reducing nutrition support ,and subverting  public education,  and even opposing the mildest gun control  legislation.   They also know that there has been a concerted effort by the GOP to make it harder  and more inconvenient for minorities to vote or about  abusive police practices,  issues ignored by Trump.. 

Trump's attempt to paint Hillary with the sins of her husband may also realize that many of those in the African American community consider Bill Clinton the "first African American president" because of his closeness to the Black community. In contrast, Trump was the most vocal  American voice in trying to de-legitimize President Obama's citizenship with his claim Obama was born in Kenya. His propensity to attribute all minorities to the actions of a few,  including claiming  a federal judge could  not be objective in a law suit against him  because he was Mexican, was not gone unnoticed by Hispanics.  Neither unnoticed  has  been Trump's his continued  and most recent support of expelling all undocumented. (prioritizing the first to go as the bad guy criminal law breakers and  implying eventually expelling  all  "good" people , too,  depriving them of any sort of legal status or citizenship).

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/transcript-hillary-clinton-alt-right-reno-227419

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/27/business/media/breitbart-news-presidential-race.html?emc=edit_th_20160827&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=33304952&_r=0

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/lists/people/comparing-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-truth-o-met/

http://www.salon.com/2016/07/06/the_disturbing_data_on_republicans_and_racism_trump_backers_are_the_most_bigoted_within_the_gop/