Update and revision Nov. 5, 2017 and Nov. 8, 2017https://www.skyhinews.com/news/muftic-did-trumps-associates-with-russian-connections-shape-his-foreign-policy/
Update: Jan 3, 2019
Update Nov. 11, 2017:
Trump is deluded.
Pres. Trump tells press he believes Putin, but not US intelligence, that Russia did not meddle in US elections in 2016. The bromance continues.https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/nov/11/donald-trump-tells-reporters-he-believes-putin/?utm_source=onesignal&utm_campaign=pushnotify&utm_medium=push
Mike Pompeo is not deluded. Trump's own appointee, head of the CIA, Mike Pompeo, confirms Russian meddling. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/11/11/despite-trumps-comments-cia-stands-assessment-russia-meddled-election/855212001/
Congress is not deluded: Facebook postings by Russians in 2016 reached 146 million people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/30/technology/facebook-google-russia.html?action=click&contentCollection=Politics&module=RelatedCoverage&
Back in scrutiny is whether Manafort caused the GOP platform to be changed regarding Ukraine and arming the opposition to Russian backed rebels. http://www.clarionledger.com/story/opinion/columnists/2017/11/03/investigation-trump-campaigns-russia-collusion-may-focus-ukraine-connection/829702001/
Revelations from Congressional hearings into Russian use of social media to influence the 2016 elections , Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller’s indictments of former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort and associate Rick Gates, and the guilty plea of George Papadopoulos have been eye opening. Aside from the implications for the integrity of future elections or charges of collusion is whether the Russian connections permeating Donald Trump’s campaign and his White House administration shaped Trump’s US foreign policy toward Russia. The case could be made that Trump was a willing dupe of Russian influence. The timing of campaign pronouncements that became foreign policy specific coincided with Russian connected staff and volunteers joining the campaign in the Spring of 2016.
Before Manafort and Mike Flynn became key players in Trump’s presidential campaign, Trump was focused on admiration of Putin’s strong man management style. Many were calling this a “bromance”. Trump has never uttered one word of criticism of President Vladimir Putin. This has been an eyebrow raiser, to say the least.
In the early months of 2016, when Manafort and company and Mike Flynn came on board the campaign, Trump’s bromance with Putin’s autocratic style of governing morphed into policy specifics which were similar to Russia’s policy goals. Manafort joined the Trump campaign in March 2016 and was named campaign chair in April, resigning in August because his Russian ties had become more public. Beginning in March 2016 Trump on the stump began his anti-NATO crusade. Putin saw the NATO mutual defense treaty as a barrier to expansion into NATO member countries such as the Baltics and Poland. Lifting US sanctions against Russia and Putin’s oligarch friends enacted in retaliation to Russian takeover of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine and interference in 2016 elections is believed to be Putin’s goal. Flynn resigned as White House adviser when he was caught fibbing about conversations with Russians about sanctions.
Gen. Mike Flynn , who had appeared seated near Putin in a Russian Television (RT) anniversary celebration, became famous in Trump rallies for his attacks on Hillary Clinton’s character with his “lock her up” chant. There is plenty of evidence that Putin also wanted Clinton to lose and had blamed her for drumming up anti Putin sentiment in his prior reelection campaign while she was Secretary of State.
In other policy pronouncements from spring 2016 through inauguration, Trump supported foreign policies that dovetailed neatly with Russia's, considering recognizing as legitimate the Russian grab of the Crimea, lifting sanctions against Russia, calling NATO obsolete as a military defense alliance, demanding members pay more, and being fuzzy about whether Russia's ally Assad in Syria must go. None of those policies are in America's or our allies' interests since it weakens US allies’ ability to check Russian land grabs in the Baltics and Balkans and increased Russian involvement in Syria on behalf of Assad. Later as President , Trump refused to back NATO’s stated purpose to come to the defense when NATO member nations were attacked . He was forced to backtrack that as President. Likewise, his policy evolved to stronger support of the pro west Ukraine government. Nonetheless, so alarmed was Congress that President Trump would lift sanctions against Russia , this summer , 2017, Congress enacted legislation to prevent the lifting of sanctions and increasing them. .Trump signed the bill, it but he has ignored and missed the implementation deadline.
The significance of the Papadopoulos guilty plea and Russian use of social media:
The Papadopoulos indictment was the first evidence uncovered by Mueller that Trump’s campaign had been interested in a degree of coordination with Russia. Papadopoulos communicated his Russian outreach initiatives and Russian contacts to his campaign supervisor, Sam Clovis. Those contacts offered email dirt of Hillary Clinton months before the emails surfaced in the press. Papadopoulos’ guilty plea was to lying to the investigators about his having Russian contacts. It was not about the substance of his actions.
Jaw dropping Congressional testimony by the icons of social media also revealed that Russian placed ads enhancing Trump’s racists and anti Muslim issues and hatred of Hillary Clinton. . These ads, tweets, and facebook postings reached nearly one out of every two US voters and were clearly geared to help Trump and hurt Clinton.
Update 10/30/17
Aside from the criminal indictment, there are some other questions. Regardless of the validity of the current indictment and another person's guilty plea, o borrow the title of a hit Broadway musical, there was "Something Rotten" going on in the 2016 Trump campaign.
Did Manafort and his associate influence Donald Trump's position on Russia in the 2016 campaign? Trump's position favoring certain specific policy issues involving Russia began to be expressed after Manafort joined the 2016 campaign. Is there evidence Russia also tried to help Trump win?
Assuming Trump was unaware that Manafort was so connected with either the Ukraine or Russia, was he just a willing dupe of that influence since he himself had so many business dealings with Russia, had wanted to have more business there, and who fundamentally and earlier admired the governing style of Putin. The press coverage of Manafort's connections mid campaign in 2016, did result in Manafort's firing as campaign chair., though co indicted Rick Gates, Manafort's associate, continued with his key role in the campaign. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/08/19/trump-campaign-chairman-paul-manafort-resigns/
On Oct. 3, 2017, George Papadopoulos plead guilty to Mueller's charge he lied about his Russian connection meetings. He was connected to the Trump campaign. http://www.newsweek.com/who-george-papadopoulos-trump-adviser-russia-650716 Speculation is that he could have plead to a lesser charge in return for turning into a state's witness that Russia did tamper with the election. election. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/30/us/politics/george-papadopoulos-russia.html?_r=0
The guilty plea paper indicates that this is evidence of campaign coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia even before Mueller's appointment as special prosecutor. https://www.lawfareblog.com/george-papadopoulos-stipulation-and-plea-agreement
http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/30/politics/who-is-george-papadopoulos/index.html
The "innocent dupe" theory could be Trump's defense against collusion, conspiracy charges. However, the continued Russian meddling in the campaign on behalf of Trump or against Clinton (either way), the suspected motivation of the Russians to get rid of sanctions against Russia levied after the Russian invasion of the Crimea and later due to the election meddling, could be the collusion element tied to Trump's team. So far Pres. Trump himself is not directly tied to a conspiracy to collude. That Trump tried to obstruct the investigation is another matter, perhaps motivated by fears of what might be revealed about his family's and team's role in any collusion. As Nixon found out, a coverup had more serious repercussions than the connection to original crime of breaking into DNC Watergate headquarters.
The overriding issue between US foreign policy and Russia is the sanctions imposed by the US against Russia, especially targeting oligarch friends of Putin. Congress in the summer of 2017 was so alarmed Trump was going to lift them, they passed legislation that basically tied Trump's hands. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-russia-sanctions-trump.html?_r=0
That Manfort was charged with conspiracy against the US leads to another question: Was Manfort acting as an agent of the former Ukrainian president or Russia and in their pay at the time of the campaign? Perhaps that could be the money laundering connection yet revealed.
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/30/full-text-paul-manafort-indictment-244307
The connection with the Cyprus bank is most interesting: In my 3/22/17 blog posting: "
How likely is it pro Russian sympathizers in his campaign or transistion or White House staff influenced his positions on foreign policy similar to Russia’s or influence the GOP platform? His campaign staff , his cabinet and White House advisers, were full of Russian friendlies . His campaign chairman from May to mid August , Paul Manafort, had provided paid services to the now deposed Putin confident and former president of the Ukraine, and he signed a contract, for millions per year 2006-2009 with an oligarch close to Putin to promote Putin's interest in the world . Manafort also was also paid as a consultant to the Montenegro government Russia was influencing. Roger Stone is suspected of communicating with Russian intelligence in cyber matters. Carter Page,active the the Russian energy sector and an open apologist for Putin, was a campaign hanger on. Two members of his cabinet have Russian ties. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, was Exxon president and got official recognition for his friendship with Russia. Trump’s old friend and new Commerce Secretary, is Wilbur Ross, major investor in a Cyprus bank known for money laundering for Russian clients . His constant campaign companion, and later briefly national security advisor ,Gen Mike Flynn ,had been paid to promote Russian state sponsored television."
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-russia-sanctions-trump.html?_r=0
Here are some of my blog postings tracking the Manafort influence in the Trump campaign last year.
The House hearing on the Trump tweet and the Russia connection yesterday in which the FBI director and the national security chief publicly confirmed that they could find no evidence Pres. Obama ordered a wire tap on Trump towers and that since last July the FBI was investigatiing the Russia connection, was historical. The red flags were flying even before then regarding the Russian influence in the campaign. Below is myblog posting which was published in the Sky Hi News June 19, 2016.Paul Manafort, mentioned in the column, joined the Trump campaign in March 2016 and was named campaign chair in April, resigning in August.. Beginning in March 2106, Trump began his anti-NATO crusade. http://www.factcheck.org/2016/05/whats-trumps-position-on-nato/
By the September "Commander in Chief" forum, Trump's foreign policy was in synch with Russia's in many ways. In a September 8 post in this blog, I wrote the following: "
Donald Trump in the recent "Commander in Chief" forum called Vladimir Putin a better leader than President Obama. That bromance between Trump and Putin is more than just a matter of flattery and egos. It has real repercussions for future conduct of foreign policy if Trump is elected.
Trump supports foreign policies that dovetail neatly with Russia's,, excusing the Russian grab of the Crimea, going
along with the stealth invasion of Eastern Ukraine, calling NATO obsolete as a military defense alliance, and fuzzy about whether Russia's ally Assad in Syria must go, None of those policies are in America's or our allies' interests. Only when it comes to fighting ISIS do Russia and the US have much in common, but even then the devil will be when any peace agreements are negotiated, as Russia will be firm to protect Assad."
"
The June 19 post about the early red flags:
There are many in Grand County who have more than a passing interest in what happens to NATO. They still have family in eastern European countries that are current members of NATO and were once Soviet satellites. Lithuanians and Poles have settled here and have become respected members of our community. Those countries belong to NATO. Other Eastern European settlers in Grand County from countries not in NATO are Russians and Moldovans.
Lithuanians, Latvians, and Estonians (the three Baltic States) and Poles in particular must be looking at alarming statements from Donald Trump for his comments that “We don’t really need NATO in its current form. NATO is obsolete…if we have to walk, we walk.” Many look with raised eyebrows at the sometimes called “bromance” with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin called Trump "a brighter person, talented without a doubt." Putin reiterated has admiration of Donald Trump June 19 on Fareed Zakaria ‘s CNN program, as well as asking why the West still needs NATO.
Trump’s public assertion that not only is NATO obsolete, but their members are not living up to their promises to contribute. There is far more at stake than money.
Russia is on the march in a seeming attempt to reassemble former Soviet satellites , restoring past glories. Russians also resent and fear their former neighboring buffer states becoming NATO members and permitting missile defense installations (even if the defense systems are turned toward the Middle East) . Their grabbing or helping surrogates grab parts of non NATO members of Georgia, the Crimea and eastern Ukraine has been seen as a threat in particular to the NATO member Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. NATO was quick to move more forces to the Baltics in response as a warning to Russia not to mess with members of NATO. Without NATO, the small Baltic states in particular would be vulnerable to a Crimea and Ukraine like grabs, making Poland and Romania especially at risk. In his June CNN comments, Putin slyly ignored Russia’s land grabs which would have answered his question of Why NATO?
There may not be a conspiracy involved, just a case of Trump’s ignorance or isolationist advocacy or wanting to make a deal with Russia, but there is an interesting connection with his most inner advisor. It is his campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, who was a political consultant to once president of the Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych was attempting to stop some in his country who wanted greater trade ties with the West, while he was closely connected to Russia and wanted his country to be more connected to them. A revolution followed in 2014. During that revolution, Yanukovych fled first to the eastern Ukraine and now resides in exile in Russia.
Many in the United States’ foreign relations community on both sides of the aisle look at Donald Trump’s foreign policy with alarm. A particularly large howl was raised in a March open letter by 121 GOP national security leaders. George W Bush’s secretary of State, Richard Armitage, announced this month he would vote for Hillary Clinton.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/06/16/richard-armitage-plans-vote-hillary-clinton/he would vote for Hillary Clinton.
policy/
https://www.theatlantic.com/news/archive/2016/07/trump-nato/492341/
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/06/16/richard-armitage-plans-vote-hillary-clinton/
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/18/politics/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-bromance/index.html
