Friday, November 22, 2024

Trump's cabinet picks; smarter for Trump than you think updated 1 20 2925

Update 1 30 2025  Ooops. https://www.nbcnews.com/.../trump-administration-rescinds... Another stupid is as stupid does by the Trump administration that does not have its act together and put Plan 2025 ideologues in charge at the OMB. https://www.nbcnews.com/.../trump-project-2025-russell... 


Original post continues:Trump's cabinet picks are smarter for  Trump's agenda than you think. Some of Pres. Elect Trump's cabinet picks are being savaged because they are not qualified as administrators of large organizations. He is programming a reality show instead of planning to govern in the traditional sense of providing a smooth-running agency that delivers services consumers want while reflecting the administration's positions. The critics are missing the point. Trump is creating a propaganda-based government to reach his goal, to gain and to keep power, whatever you call that, autocracy, king, dictator, or "strong leader". He is using loyal appointees as the public voice to support and shape the credibility of his message and by also controlling the data and outcome describing its accomplishments. What those Trump-appointed public faces say needs to be taken with a grain of salt and challenged if evidence of distortions and failures is found. 

Those in subordinate agency positions will be doing the administrative work and making sure those below them are carrying out Trump's policies. Project 2025 is the  "what" and "how to" manual ready to be activated on Day One. I would not bank on administrative incompetence to cause Trump's problems, but on the unpopular policies that hurt people they enacted with or without Congressional approval. https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/dem-rep-cabinet-picks-reveal-project-2025-is-donald-trump-s-2025-225279045661

That is the challenge facing the Democratic party, to support and preserve that democracy as best they can. There is a silver lining in the 2024 election as the dust settles. It is still approximately a 50-50 country, give or take a few percentage points tilting public opinion one way or the other. In the long run, if the Trump administration fails to deliver on its promises on the economy, that still may be democracy's best hope for its survival when half of the electorate does not care if democracy survives. Democrats do not need to lie or distort facts but can expose the connection between Trump's method of governance that results in the pain to daily lives of making ends meet or takes away their personal liberty to pursue happiness. Democrats also need to make the case of how they would do better or even did better. Attack is not enough.  We need a comparable voice or voices to deliver that message. I hope someone emerges.

Politicians have always sought to get and keep personal power and spin their messages, but most have some ideology and ideals besides self-aggrandizement, some respect for the democratic system, some sense of abiding by the constraints of the Constitution, some moral or religious compass, some abidance to the rule of law and the boundaries laws set. Even fascists and communists hid their lust for power behind some kind of ideology, or rationale that had popular appeal. It was either " the dictatorship of the proletariat" or hyper-pure-blooded nationalism.  Never, though, have we ever had a president like Trump, who has no personal guardrails like these and transacts policy policy decisions based on what benefits him.  This means lies and distorting facts are tools to shape public support and are not off limits and he is a master in using them to his benefit. His perpetuation of the "2020 election was stolen" and "consumers do not pay for tariffs" are examples of this kind of public opinion shaping based on lies with no basis in facts repeated like a religious mantra that becomes his "truths" his followers are expected to swallow. Trump reflects his followers and shapes their perceptions with such tools.  Threats of bodily harm and total political destruction are also approved if they support his goals, and he uses fear of revenge and "retribution" as his most powerful tools. 

One of the most fascinating experiences in my political science education was spending my college junior year in pre-wall Berlin, watching how the Soviets used propaganda to consolidate control over the minds of post world war II East Germans they governed and later, I personally experienced how dictators used fear threats to keep thinking minds under control and silenced in communist Yugoslavia.  In short: I have a pretty good idea of how propaganda works and how a dictator can use and control the media message to control minds. 

Donald Trump is not yet there, but he aspires to have that kind of power and uses some of the same techniques to attain it, including propaganda.  His ideology may be missing, and instead of some moral compass,  he expects and demands loyalty to him instead of above everything, even to the rule of law. After four years of this, if democracy survives his attempts to become an "autocrat", it will be a miracle if the institutions promoting and respecting democracy survive. 

Are my fears overblown? I wish they were. However,  I have reasons to fear. Trump had no problem in his first term demanding the president of Ukraine to dig up dirt on the "Biden crime family" after a year of investigations by Ukraine itself, finding no proof or to call officials in Georgia to find enough missing votes to make him the winner of electoral votes. The implications: fabricate them if necessary. Both were threatened with harmful consequences if they did not: withholding US weaponry or losing their law licenses, delivered in language and hints that even the Godfather would have used.  Like a mob boss, Trump also threatens total political destruction by primary, or revenge and retribution is also not off limits to keep his supporters and opposition in line. The use of the active military to put down political opponents' demonstrations in the summer of George Floyd's civil unrest resulted in his threats against military brass to court martial Gen. Mlley for refusing to provide the active military and is core to his current campaign to force the military to swear loyalty to him instead of loyalty to the rule of law and the Constitution.  Earlier, Trump had asked his defense secretary if he could use the military to shoot demonstrators in their legs.  His history is that he expects his military appointees to break laws on his behalf. He also has acquired a Supreme Court decision that he, too, can break criminal laws if it is part of his administrative duties.  

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/11/if-its-economy-stupid-magas-rise-is-its.html

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/11/trumps-achilles-heels-unintended.html

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/09/1097517470/trump-esper-book-defense-secretary



  


Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Storm clouds on the horizon for Trump, business and consumer interests, and Elon Musk update 12/14/2024

 Trump faces storm clouds on the horizon as he faces pressure from business interests and Elon Musk. Business interests may be the only guardrails Trump will face challenging his priorities. To Trump, what matters to him is what the stock market is doing.  If that begins to tank due to inflation rising again, maybe he might begin to see the folly of high tariffs and immigration policies causing a labor shortage as he tries to live up to his campaign policies to mess with both. https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/business/guardrails-trump-economy-stock-market-bonds     He is already fudging on his promises to lower grocery prices. 

An excellent  article on Trump's threatened tariffs on Chinese imports, from the business/investor viewpoint. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/china-has-been-stockpiling-a-key-us-crop-before-trump-takes-office

Update 12/14/2024 .If there was one issue that tipped the election to Trump, it was his promise to lower grocery prices. He made a big deal of it in his campaign, he promised he would, polls confirmed that was the reason he won, and now he is already admitting he will have a hard time rolling back grocery prices. In fact, the likelihood that grocery prices will inflate will be due to his tariffs on imports from Mexico and a labor shortage from farm to processing caused by mass deportations. https://www.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-already-walked-back-221600205.html

Trump says it will be 'hard' to bring grocery prices down. Here's why. Already, Trump is blaming Biden, not COVID-19, not supply chain mess-ups, empty shelves, or stimulus checks causing more demand than supply. As Biden leaves office, grocery price inflation had been near zero for the past year. However, if grocery prices go south, tariffs and immigration will be to blame,. The message must be more than "we told you so," but to tie it to Trump's own actions and deserved blame for whatever happened on his watch. 



The other issue that motivated some to vote for Trump was the price of gas at the pump and his promise to make that cheaper.  That one will not happen either. Drill baby drill might make oil patch oligarchs righer, but not the rest of us:

 Another reason why drill baby drill will not reduce prices at the pump. Gist of the article: supply and demand are set internationally so that even producing more oil will not affect prices at American pumps..  The US does not control oil supply and demand and any extra oil we produce may be offset by less drilling in another country. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/why-trump-s-plan-to-drill-baby-drill-is-unlikely-to-cut-gas-prices-and-fix-inflation/ar-AA1vTbWR?

There are other reasons drill baby drill will not reduce prices at the pump:  We do not have a shortage of crude oil, but oil patch already has leases with oil for the next 40 years. What they really want is to remove environmental restraints so they can increase their profit margins, but that will not20 affect gas at the pump either.  MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: The BS of "drill baby drill"; makes unnecessary

Update 12/20/2024:  Wonder why the EU was left out of the Trump threat to raise tariffs on imports? It was rumored the EU threatened to block energy/gas imports from the US as a retaliation to tariffs on their exports to the US, setting off the US gas industry. Trump listened.  This is how Trump couched it in terms of a trade-off to bring down the trade imbalance and make him look like the ultimatum was his ultimatum tat is as advantage to the US.. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/20/trump-says-european-union-must-buy-us-oil-and-gas-in-trade-ultimatum.html     Here is how the spin is being positionedby Trump for the benefit of his MAGA's ears . Donald Trump Threatens Europe With Tariffs - Newsweek    Unknown if there will be any impact on the US consumer in righting a trade imbalance, but they will avoid having high tariffs passed on to them for European imports.  Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, motor cars and motor vehicles are the major items US imports from Europe.  

This section regarding billionaires and oligarchs is moved to a separate posting: MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Musk's return on investment in Trump has just begun




Sunday, November 17, 2024

Elitists vs. simple speak: Democrats face challenges. Update 1 27 2025

Update: 1 27 2025;Messaging again: this opinion piece has a lot of validity. However, what is lacking is what do you call Project 2025 or oligarchs if that is just too intellectual. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/trump-s-billionaires-aren-t-oligarchs-they-re-something-else-opinion. Calling out billionaires as billionaires is so what. I like oligarchs because that is what is considered evil in Putin's world, too. The analogy to a dictatorship has its own value.

Original 11/17/2024 post continues:

MAGA has turned the GOP into the party of the poorly educated and made it easy to manipulate them with simplistic gobbledegook. The challenge for Dems is to speak their language and explain the unintended consequences of simplistic solutions to complex problems. Appropriate messaging to voters of various education levels is key to political success. Democrats are just not good at that. Education is the greatest predictor of how someone will vote. It may be an insurmountable challenge, but they must at least try to improve to reach across the education divide. https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/14/politics/the-biggest-predictor-of-how-someone-will-vote/index.html.

Abstract concepts and warnings of unintended consequences based on facts, data, and historical experiences work in communicating with the more educated. The messaging challenge for Democrats is they have to wait for reality to catch up with their predictions and make the connection in simple, 6th-grade-level terms. That is the average reading comprehensive level for the United States. Democrats need to express themselves in terms that reach them, too. This means speaking to the public just as you would a 6th grader about policies that even Ph.D.s debate. It can be done. MAGA did it.

The lack of reading comprehension is not new. What is new is that Americans have become auditory and visual learners and they get their news and develop opinions shaped by blogs, podcasts, TV personalities, and social media. Simple speak is just that: speak. The problem is that often those who deliver news and opinions also get their information from the written word, too, but translating their views into simple speak takes some skill. https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/news-influencers-social-media-pew-report-rcna179786

"I told you so" or "you are too stupid to get it "are not the best responses to the loss Democrats experienced on November 5 as they try to place the blame on "low information voters". Enough of those cost them the election, true, but Democrats in the future need to figure out how to reach them, too. It comes down to asking themselves what those voters are feeling and seeing in their daily lives in the here and now. Political and economic theorizing and warnings about consequences are not on the kitchen table for dinner for those who are not absorbed by politics. The best approach is a cynical one, which is exactly the one MAGA dis. "See, the price of eggs is ridiculous. Remember what it was like when X was in charge? Therefore all of these prices and inflation are their fault, implying vote for him and he will fix it."(whether it was or not true or the hows to do it are missing). Harris attempted to bring messaging down to common terms better than most Democrats lately, but it was not enough, and she was reluctant to criticize Biden. Bill Clinton was the best explainer in the simple language of any politician I can recall. What goes around eventually comes around but at that point placing the blame should be in simplistic language, too. If I ever hear again "existential threat", or other jargon like that, libs need to get their tongues examined. Showing how smart you are to use big words is unhelpful.

Communicating with those who are illiterate or who have 6th-grade reading comprehension abilities takes a special set of skills. For a good part of my professional life, I have specialized in trying to do it in both columns and in books, in politics, and in educating people about being good and smart consumers. I write in simple English and try to avoid jargon. Sometimes I fail and fall into the jargon trap. Other times to alleviate my own frustrations, I write blog postings about messaging failures or suggest maybe "it could be said this way".  

The problem is today's problems are not simple and the solutions to them are complex and the harmful result of ignoring complexities is unintended consequences. ..making the current victims even victimized more. Dumbing down equals dumbed-down policies that the dumbed-down only see it in the price of eggs and then vote for the candidate whose policies will increase the price of eggs.  Democrats need to get their messaging , spoken and written, to the 6th-grade level if they want to make hay in pointing blame in the next two years. 

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/11/trumps-achilles-heels-unintended.html

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/11/if-its-economy-stupid-magas-rise-is-its.html

"Registered voters without a four-year college degree back Trump over Harris (52% vs. 42%). The reverse is true for registered voters with a college degree (57% Harris vs. 38% Trump)<.https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/10/the-harris-trump-matchup/



Thursday, November 14, 2024

Trump's Achilles heels: unintended consequences updated 2 7 2025

Update 2/7/2025  The question for those who voted for Trump in 2024 is: Did you vote for this? Elon Musk figured the best way to bring efficiency to the government is to eliminate government programs that have some humanitarian assistance and call them socialism or corrupt. They may have stepped on a very large group of Trump supporters: evangelical and Catholic Christians who deliver much of the aid to Africa funded by USAID, driven by the religious belief that this is part of their mission..   https://time.com/7212791/usaid-christian-foreign-aid-freeze-evangelical/   Lauren Boebert cheers Trump and Musk's moves to 'dismantle' USAID, but Colorado Democrats raise alarms | Colorado In DC | coloradopolitics.com

Continuing with the original post.

 The Trump package plan will contain unpleasant surprises and unintended consequences. Opponents of Trump should consider it an opportunity in preparation for the midterms instead of moping around. In the upcoming Trump administration, what can opposition voices do? What messaging can work? How can we get those messages across when the MAGA message media silo is so powerful? Would the British opposition technique of a shadow cabinet be a mechanism to organize the resistance in the media? 

If the pundits and polls are correct, the price of eggs was more than they were before COVID was the ultimate reason Trump won over low-information voters, those voters are doomed to be disappointed.  Trump can't deliver. He cannot roll back prices and he does not have the power to do it. In fact, inflation will raise its ugly head again because so many of his policies are inflationary. and prices will rise above those of the Biden administration's handoff to the Trump regime. Mass deportation, tariffs, and loss of tax income to the treasury are all inflationary. Voters will be in shock when there are unintended consequences of unpopular policies they did not know were part of the Trump  Project 2025 package plan. A backlash is inevitable. Democrats need to be ready to pounce to win in the 2026 midterms or 2028.   Update 1/17/2025: the bench mark of Biden's handoff to Trump: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/is-donald-trump-inheriting-the-best-economy-in-history/

Update: 12//16/2024  https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/12/major-trump-campaign-points-evaporate.html  Trump now admits he probably won't be able to roll back grocery prices. The Biden Crime family: the witness of Ukraine energy company bribery admits he lied.  Emerging, the rule of oligarchs feathering their own nests.

 On the horizon is a long list of unpopular public policies that the Trump administration will try to implement. Many of those unpopular policies will be an unpleasant surprise because Project 2025's strategy and activation plans were ignored or because their media sources failed to report them or dismissed them as just jokes or wish lists. https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/calling-trumps-win-a-mandate-is-ridiculous-no-support-for-policy-agenda?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=imm3e 

If those in the working class and struggling middle-class voters who voted for Trump think that MAGA will just cut out "unnecessary expenses" and find out that what got cut was access or affordable coverage of health insurance they could get when they had pre-existing conditions or lost employer insurance, someone might be surprised and angered. When Trump voters learn they had to work more years before retirement, and social security benefits were also chopped or some find their small business had to be closed because their help got deported, there will be an inevitable backlash. When those working for wages find they no longer get overtime, someone is going to be ticked. When food for school kids is cut, and access to women's health care access to birth control, and abortion pills are blocked, there will be a backlash, especially from those who were unaware of what came with Trump's package plan. The question is when, not if, Trump voters figure this out. Will it be before the 2026 midterms or the next presidential election cycle?  Democrats simply saying "I told you so" and "You were conned" are not effective responses, but better could be"This is the pain you are feeling, and we feel it too. Here is how to fix it. Mr. Fixit flubbed it but note the tax breaks for the rich were preserved." Update: Biden's address before the Brookings Institute, 12/10/2024  Biden touts economic legacy, warns of Trump’s tariffs

We can also blame the right-wing media silo, who directed their focus to two issues. immigration and inflation, and ignored and downplayed many very unpopular policies that came as part of  MAGA control of nearly all of the levers of federal government power as laid out in Project 2025.

 Here is the real challenge Democrats face. It is also probable that the news cycles will be dominated by Trump's revenge tour he had promised, and what is going on elsewhere in the Trump administration will be overwhelmed by sensational hearings and prosecutions, while backroom dealings will go unreported and unfocused. Buried in the news will be that the reason so many of the services treasured by the middle class and the poor is that "reducing government waste and expense are policies to offset the lack of income from the loss into the treasury income those tax policies favoring the rich will cause."  The connection must be made by Democrats that tax policies for the rich is what is causing the cut in programs that made your life easier. It isn't class warfare; it isn't just unfair; it is why and how people are feeling the pain.

 One challenge Democrats have in getting their message to Trump voters is that MAGA media is controlled and owned by the US equivalent of Russian oligarchs who have their own agenda, including keeping their corporate and personal taxes low and regulations even lower.  Democrats need to get focused on the unintended consequences, cut through the revenge tour noise, and make a case for reasons to vote MAGA out in the next election cycles., including the 2026 midterms and in 2028. 

What can Democrats do to break into the MAGA media silo.?  Speaking with one voice is essential to keep the focus on their message. Rapid response is also critical as each unpopular consequence is revealed in the same new cycle  The voices need to be simple and credible. Pete Buttigieg showed how to do it on FOX but that needs to be multiplied in the many channels, including social media. 

Here is a suggestion: take a page from MAGA and other political bodies. The Democrats have got to be ready to promote and ride the backlash with a coordinated message and then get their spokespersons with the same message on all of those media outlets.. The coordination must come from one political source orchestrating the strategy such as the DNC, the Democratic Party Chair. The British use shadow cabinets. Shadow cabinet members are credible heavyweights like standing committees with designated spokespeopyle and are ready to go at a moment's notice. Members of Congress become the bullhorn, blowing the same tune to magnify and repeat and repeat again and again. 

Since most politics are local, on-record votes by Congress people for policies that harm their constituents should also make news in House members' hometown media, print, radio talk, or social contacts. Federal administrative action harm can also be brought down to the state, district, and local levels. Trump is going to force GOP  Congressional representatives to take votes that are unpopular in their districts under the threat of primarying the disloyal. Democrats should not let them off the hook with silence the time the harm is done, and again at the next campaign cycle, too. For example, if the tariff policy results in retaliatory action by, say, China that causes massive layoffs with local impact in certain congressional districts, the state or local Democratic party could make sure constituents know who was to blame at the time and again at the next election. If cutting Medicaid causes the local hospital to fold, that too is fair game. Loss of workforce because of wide-reaching immigration sweeps is another local opportunity. A local issue for my county is federal antitrust action against a merger of Kroger and Albertson.  If that DOJ action is dropped under orders of Trump or his compliant AG, and the state suit approves the merger, our county will see a lot of pain. 

Business interests may be the only guardrails Trump will face per a recent analysis and to Trump, it means what the stock market is doing.  If that begins to tank due to inflation rising again, maybe he might begin to see the folly of high tariffs and immigration policies causing a labor shortage, as he tries to live up to his campaign policies to mess with both.  Much more at  https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/11/storm-clouds-on-horizon-for-elon-musk.html

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/business/guardrails-trump-economy-stock-market-bonds

update 12/4/2024    This should be instructive to Trump. He had already attempted to pull off a coup on Jan 6 and never met full accountability for his role. If he, too, faces frustration for failing to achieve his priorities through ordinary democratic order and tries to declare martial law to suppress opposition, the other 49% who did not vote for him could have other ideas, as those in Korea did. He is already planning to use extraordinary powers, declaring a national emergency to use active military, to carry out his mass deportation plan.

South Korea martial law lifted, growing calls for president Yoon Suk Yeol to resign: Live updates | CNN

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/18/us/politics/trump-military-mass-deportation.html

________________________________________

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/11/if-its-economy-stupid-magas-rise-is-its.html

ttps://www.newsweek.com/will-trumps-tariffs-drive-inflation-1995274

https://time.com/7212791/usaid-christian-foreign-aid-freeze-evangelical/

KEEPING TRACK of expected unintended consequences follows: this is an ever-expanding list.

Millions at Risk of Losing Health Insurance at the end of 2025 - Newsweek

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/6-things-expected-to-get-more-expensive-if-trump-s-trade-plans-are-enacted/ar-AA1u870X?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=1c9fdc085ff54ebba73fbb6d32e491ef&ei=25

Walmart could raise prices when Trump takes office

Walmart just leveled with Americans: China won’t be paying for Trump’s tariffs, in all likelihood you will

Trump's proposed tariffs could raise U.S. grocery prices, analysis finds

5 Ways New Tariffs Will Impact Your Family's Budget


The Grim Reality of President-Elect Donald Trump's Social Security Plan

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/elon-musk-s-trump-bump-keeps-growing/ar-AA1ua20G?ocid=socialshare&pc=HCTS&cvid=962a27f5ae9e4576af344726246343df&ei=12

https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/11/storm-clouds-on-horizon-for-elon-musk.html

Ukraine:  Russia will not stop with Ukraine  “We're going to take back the Baltic States, they're ours”