Seniors, once reliable Republicans, are becoming Democrats

This is a trend that was developing while Biden was still a candidate, but it has continued since the Harris candidacy.  This is an updated earlier version of several prior posts:

Will Project 2025 cut Medicare: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-warnings-from-democrats-about-project-2025-and-donald-trump   It proposes some cuts to Medicare but not to social security, and it would reverse prescription drug price cuts and stop negotiation to lower drug costs.

Updating three earlier posts: 9 4 2024

Kamala Harris Could Land Key Group of Voters, Polls Show (msn.com)   Per this recent Newsweek article 9/4/24,  the switch is continuing with Harris per an August 10 poll:" According to the most recent New York Times/Siena Poll on August 10, Harris is polling at 55 percent compared to Trump's 42 percent among voters age 65 and up. That advantage only slightly dips for Harris, 53-41, with third-party candidates included in the poll.

Sixty-seven percent of the 65-plus voters in the poll say they are "almost certain" to vote. In the last presidential election, roughly 52 percent of voters over 65 backed Trump."

 Let me add one more reason seniors are switching to Biden. It is a generational change, per this piece in the New York Times. My silent generation has died off, with only 20 percent of us still living (the good news, bad news for me). Instead, it has been replaced by the All in the Family generation, disillusioned with the lies told us about Vietnam and the bigotry and xenophobia exposed in this classic TV sitcom. 

My thoughts: The silent generation grew up with radio; the one now coming of old age had the visuals of TV with an impact much more visceral than movie newsreels, photos, and just voices. Once upon a time seniors were dependable GOP voters, but not any more

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/06/upshot/older-voters.html

FYI for political junkies concerned about voter/suppression "integrity" laws making it harder for minorities and seniors to vote. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/16-states-made-it-harder-to-vote-this-year-but-26-made-it-easier/

When, under the guise of combatting non-existent election fraud because mail-in ballots per Trump are corrupt, some states have made it harder to vote by mail, requiring documentation hard to get by older voters, including driver's licenses, and then restricting access to drop boxes. These suppression measures will hurt seniors the most.   Traditionally, Republicans have benefitted from absentee and mail-in voters because seniors were their traditional, dependable base, but this may change.  The impact of such voter suppression measures will be fodder for political scientists'  analysis post-November 2024. 

From my March 12 post this year:

 Trump seems determined to turn off older voters.   The demographic of voters over 65 is the second largest group of those who vote. " Cutting Medicare and Social Security" is not a phrase that will win friends and influence older voters.  He immediately backtracked, saying he would just cut waste. However, his GOP MAGA party is serious about cutting Medicare and Social Security, and the question becomes, if President, would he sign such legislation.  House Republicans float changes to Social Security in budget proposal (axios.com)

Trump had been losing them, and now he is actively turning them off of his MAGA world.  Vintage Trump.   Instead of trying to bring more into his base, he is committing political malpractice because now he is saying he is open to cutting Medicare and Social Security without saying how. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/11/politics/trump-entitlements-social-security-medicare/index.html#:~:text=Former%20President%20Donald%20Trump%20on,primary%20rivals%20over%20the%20issue.

Biden responded: “If anyone tries to cut Social Security or Medicare, or raise the retirement age again, I will stop them,” Biden said during a speech in New Hampshire. “This morning, Donald Trump said cuts to Social Security and Medicare are on the table again.”  https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/biden-pounces-trump-eyes-cuts-social-security-medicare-rcna142920

 That there needs to be financial shoring up, who does it,  and who gets hurt just leaves the threat out there.  Do you really trust the GOP to do the best for Social Security and Medicare if they get their hands on Congress or the Oval Office? The GOP has had to destroy Medicare and Social Security on their radar, ideologically motivated since the day they were created. They seem to think turning it over to the Wall Street casino and letting for-profit insurers with their fancy advertising and high overhead run and ruin the programs. * 

Why older voters have stuck with Biden more than younger generations | CNN Politics

Older voters flee Trump, solidifying Biden's advantage in the 2020 race (nbcnews.com)

Biden's old guy advantage with older voters - POLITICO

Forgotten Purpose: Civics Education in Public Schools | NEA

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/americans-oppose-most-trump-policies/ar-AA1mPgWu?ocid=socialshare&pc=DCTS&cvid=b1985bfa8fa14970849a5b58c9d57617&ei=18

https://www.newsweek.com/social-security-changes-planned-if-nikki-haley-wins-election-1859696 

Number of Voters as a Share of the Voter Population, by Age | KFF

        This demographic of voters over 65 is the second largest group of those who vote.

Update on immigration issues: Harris gains and Trump's BS exposed

Update 9 28 24 : There's a new sheriff coming to town: Harris on immigration: go to https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/09/harris-on-immigration-theres-new.html

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Update 9 28 24  Aurora, Colorado is now a Trump hype of Venezuelan gangs taking over the city. That is the usual tactic of Trump: take a limited event and blow it up to apply to the whole.  Such has been the case in Aurora, Colorado.  The gang activity was limited to a few buildings. Gang members have already been arrested and charged and will likely be in jail  and then on their way back to Venezuela with their special protective status revoked.  That is the way it works. https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2024/09/11/aurora-venezuelan-gang-arrests-mike-coffman-danielle-jurinsky

Update 9/4/24: (Also reproduced as a separate posting)  Fear and loathing of all immigrants is key to Trump's campaign. However, it is based on factual BS.  The facts on the immigrant crime wave? There is not one.  https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/debunking-myth-migrant-crime-waveTrump sabotaged the only bipartisan bill to address it this past winter. Biden used what executive powers he had and cooperation by Mexico. The result was the lowest illegal crossing in 3 years. Catch and release is down 65%. We would have been on our way to even lower figures without Trump's wrecking the bill..  The executive orders Biden utilized face court challenges, but for now it has been effective and is still in effect. In addition, Mexico has cracked down on migrants, tripling their deportations.  Trump's campaign of fear and hatred of immigrants causing crime is debunked by statistics, ignored by  Trump's MAGA whose fuel is hatred of others unlike them.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/border-crossings-us-mexico-border-june-2024

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/26/border-crossings-drop-biden-policy-00165055          

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/mexico-stopping-three-times-as-many-migrants-as-last-year-rcna146821

Immigrants, as a whole, are less likely to commit violent crimes. https://www.npr.org/2024/03/08/1237103158/immigrants-are-less-likely-to-commit-crimes-than-us-born-americans-studies-find

Illegal immigrants are not more likely to commit violent crimes: in fact, the opposite is true: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/debunking-myth-migrant-crime-wave

Will Biden's executive order survive a legal challenge? "Biden's proclamation leans on Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act that lets a president limit entry of specific migrants if it is "detrimental" to national interest. Trump used the same provisions with his 2017 banning of people from Muslim-majority countries and a later policy barring asylum seekers that was ultimately struck down by courts. Biden administration officials insist the new proposal is very different, but that will likely do little to prevent expected lawsuits to stop it. The American Civil Liberties Union vowed to challenge the order in court. "It was illegal when Trump did it, and it is no less illegal now," said Lee Gelernt, deputy director of the organization's Immigrants’ Rights Project. "    https://www.texastribune.org/2024/06/04/texas-mexico-border-biden-immigration-asylum-policy.

A humane approach to immigration policy is the bi-partisan bill Trump killed because he wanted the issue to still be hot as he campaigns. There is also a possibility to contrast policies that may have a broader appeal to those who indeed want the border crisis to be handled, but not with the cruelty of Trump's plan.  What the bi-partisan bill lacks is Trump's plan to use the US Army to break up families with mixed status (an estimated 6.7 million families) and deport 20K total without documents, putting them in concentration camps waiting for deportation. 

Harris  needed to revive flagging Hispanic support of Democrats (Trump 46%; Biden was 40%) that was a reverse of past statistics and the left flank of Democrats uneasy with even the bi-partisan bill Trump killed. The first step is to attack Trump for killing the bi-partisan bill. which Harris just did. With illegal border crossings now equal to Trump's data as he left office, the Democrats have highlighted that update.  Harris has gained significant approval by Hispanics, but there is still more to do. https://www.semafor.com/article/09/03/2024/kamala-harris-poll-hispanic-voters-climate-healthcare The next could be to paint the Trump approach based on racism, hate, cruelty, and fear, while the bipartisan bill approach is both humane and effective. With many in the Latino community also resenting the flood of migrants at the border, the humane plan of Harris might have some appeal. Harris is following the old bit of wisdom: the best defense is a great offense. However, she still needs to reverse the loss of Hispanic voters...https://thehill.com/homenews/4801766-kamala-harris-donald-trump-border  

Keeping democracy is more valuable than voting for tax advantages

Memo to my well-heeled friends: Let me say something about priorities and values. Keeping democracy is more valuable than voting for tax advantages. I am not poor. I will leave my children some inheritance. What I want is to leave them a democracy of the kind I grew up with so they can enjoy the same freedom I have had to chart my own life. That is the most valuable inheritance my generation can leave them. I am old enough to have seen what fascism caused, and I have had personal day-to-day experiences with a dictatorship. Trump and those who only care about the power and wealth they have if they get back in power would, yes, destroy the kind of democracy I have enjoyed to regain power. I wish on no one a wannabe dictator beholden to the white Christian nationalist agenda and methods of subversion of the administration of laws and their intent to give the autocrat and his loyalists an advantage. I am White and Christian, and so are my children and grandchildren. Their future shaped by demographics will be in a multicultural, multi-racial society where the best way to maintain domestic peace, stability, and prosperity is with a democracy that includes all, is fair to all, and does not attempt to give priority to an extreme religious group and a 1950's Jim Crow racial suppression as outlined in Project 2025. Trump's attempt to distance himself from such forces as the Heritage Foundation represents has no credibility since he is so transactional. He will cut any deal that enhances his power and keeps him there, as his flip-flop on Florida's abortion ban so recently graphically illustrated. Economies never thrive in those kinds of governance when the country is mired in hateful, revengeful, and tribal conflict, where only those craving power get there and stay there when they meet the ideological litmus test of the ruler instead of the excellence of their abilities. Four years again of Trump and new political circumstances that differ from his first term will only bring such turmoil, instability, and uncertainty that chaos is too kind of a word to describe the damage he will do.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-hannity-dictator-authoritarian-presidential-election-f27e7e9d7c13fabbe3ae7dd7f1235c72

The BS of "drill baby drill"; makes unnecessary useless

 FYI, "drill baby drill" folks: Why are the prices at the pump still so high? They are not, per most recent news. Update 12/9/2024:  Average price per gallon is $3.03 today; in Colorado: $2.80.The Democrat response so far to "drill baby drill" has been that we are pumping more oil than ever. This is correct, but it sounds evasive and does not seem to be connected to pump prices consumers are experiencing. https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/30/business/gas-prices-labor-day-inflation/index.html  

For Trump, " drill, baby, drill" is a chant that appeals to Trump's base supporters. It makes sense to them, but it is nonsense. It is making the unnecessary useless. The "drill baby drill" Trump's answer to prices is simplistic bull whacky. Our problem is not a supply of crude oil; we already have so much we are exporting. Pumping more crude is a BS non-solution. If oil interests think they can make a case for more leases, they have to overcome this fact: we already have enough leases undrilled to provide oil in the US for decades and much longer for natural gas. This is making unnecessary useless in dealing with the issue at the pump prices. Proved Reserves of Crude Oil and Natural Gas in the United States

Trump is spouting this BS because he hopes he can get away with it because the answer is complex. Perhaps he hopes oil barrons will contribute $1 billion to his campaign.  No president, Biden, Trump, or Harris can control the price per barrel of oil. The prices are set in markets by oil cartels and many other factors, as the above CNN article describes. At a critical time, Biden released the Strategic Reserves to force prices down by increasing supply. That critical reserve tank has been refilled  Trump, the oil barons and the $1B question - POLITICO

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/leafhandler.ashx?f=m&n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg

Harris and Biden on fracking? Since 2021, no ban. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/27/business/fracking-ban-biden-federal-leasing/index.html

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https://mufticforumblog.blogspot.com/2024/08/trumps-drill-baby-dirill-deceptive.html

THEHILL.COM

Biden administration says it has replenished strategic oil reserve after Russia war drawdown