How Democrats are messaging the shutdown: A good start but they need to do more.

  Democrats could message on the shutdown better. It should be easy. It is a good start so far, but they need and can do more.  They are right to make health care costs the issue for now and 2026, sticking the GOP with the blame, and that is the reason they are being so determined.. Their challenge is not only to pin the blame on the GOP,   Democrats must do more and tell what they would do if they won control of Congress a year from now. That's an easy one for voters to grasp: The GOP not only caused the pain, but Democrats would restore the cuts to health care subsidies and reverse the tax cuts to the wealthy to pay for it. That makes the link more obvious between health care costs and the GOP's favors they give to the rich. 

 The cost of health care insurance and the availability of health care services are the most powerful messages because they affect both red and blue states and a very large number of really angry voters who are going to be hurt badly. That will also be part of the message that Trump's promises to make the cost of living have not only failed, but he is making it more expensive to keep up with essential daily needs.  Fundamentally, the Trump regime and its patsies in Congress do not care about everyday Americans' struggles. Congressional Democrats have done a good job in making that argument, but now it should be made clear how they would fix this. They should not assume the public gets the point. Voters have options. They may just stay home and tune out, with a "plague on both of your houses" attitude.

 The timing is right since the actual pain of health care funding cuts will begin starting now.  Pinning the blame for what happens soon on the GOP is in progress. So far, it has just been warnings, and until voters actually feel the pain, it is not fully effective. That is about to change. Trump's cuts to subsidies for the ACA (causing costs to soar for those millions who depend on it) begin now, and rural hospitals will shutter and close because they are projecting the impact of the next 12 months. Medicare impacts will be felt and hurt after December. 

 Added to that pain of higher health care costs are grocery prices and tariff-struck consumer goods.. Food banks will feel the strain as groceries become more expensive due to Trump's policies that cause costs to soar at the same time SNAP is being cut. Dramatizing that point should be as easy as presenting stories of real people who are being hurt. That strategy should be ongoing all the way to the November 2026  midterms. "This is how people like you are being hurt now" will be a PR gift that keeps on giving for Democrats.

 A possibility is to tie the arrogance of power-grabbing Trump to make decisions on his own or on behalf of his powerful supporting friends that ignore the will of the people as expressed through their Congressional representatives. This is no longer a government of, by, and for the people, but of, by, and for Trump. It is no longer a democracy.  No Kings demonstrations can further educate the voters that Trump's power grab will hurt them by subverting, ending, and defunding programs that help ordinary people.

  It has now become obvious that the strategy of the Trump regime is to cherry-pick which laws they will execute that Congress has already funded to extend their hold on power. The Trump regime's strategy is not about "faithfully executing " laws that are passed and services that were funded, but it is about how power is being abused and used to punish the opposition by subverting the execution and withholding appropriated funding. Lies and red herrings like "illegal migrants get health care" are getting shot down in real time by Democrats. That's not only lies, but it's the GOP's attempt to tie health care to appeal to the racist elements of an immigrant-hating base. Not only is it likely that withholding execution of laws and funding already authorized by Congress is unconstitutional. particularly if it is done for unrelated political gain, it is also clear: Trump doesn't care about that nicety of following the Constitution or the laws of the land either. There is case law on this issue, but precedent does not seem binding to this Supreme Court. His strategy to get and keep power is to grab as much power as he can get away with. These power grabs may ultimately be approved by "his" 6-3 Supreme Court, which has been ruling in favor of giving Trump more and more unrestrained power.  

 Focusing on the hardships to federal workers who lose their jobs by Trump's design or who have to struggle until 1) the shutdown in over and 2) the chainsaw approach gets challenged in t he courts is OK, but that message is not very effective.  The welfare of federal workers is not a dedicated cause for most voters. It will, however, affect those states with many laid-off or fired federal workers, who are having close gubernatorial and Congressional races in some red and blue swing states. Those swing states right now are polling poorly already for Trump:

Be aware, too, that Trump is not deaf to these vulnerabilities, and already he is talking about compensating the tariff hit on consumers with a $2K check to every voter. He is aware that his tariffs did hurt American farmers and wants to bail them out with billions of dollars. Where the heck is he going to get the funds? It is possible in a November scheduled ruling, "his"  Supreme Court could grow cajónes and declare Trump's cross-the-board tariffs unconstitutional, requiring as much as $1 trillion to be refunded, except for those related to defense and national security.   His puppy dog GOP Congress may just throw care about the debt and deficit under the bus to compensate for his major goofs, which, in so doing, compensate for his bad judgment and lies to MAGA, taking them for fools.  There is no better admission that he was lying or an ignorant moron than having to fix the trouble to consumers and farmers his tariffs have caused, and he so vehemently claimed would not happen.

US could be forced to refund $1 trillion if Supreme Court overturns Trump's tariffs  

Trump mulling $2,000 ‘dividend’ for Americans to share money made from tariffs

Trump making plans to send billions in cash bailouts to farmers with taxpayer money - POLITICO

Devastating poll shows Trump 'underwater' in all 7 swing states he won

SOUTH DAKOTA v. DOLE, 483 U.S. 203 (1987) | FindLaw

What part of the GOP is hard core MAGA

 Trump has a 43 percent approval rating per recent polls. If it is a question of democracy vs dictatorship/authoritarianism, 55% of registered Republicans want a strong man president...which is the question one poll asked. If that is the case, if I had the general feeling...not an exact estimate, but between 30% and 35% of all voters were hard-core MAGA, and the 15 percent are either unengaged, squishy, self-interested business types. Poll by NY Times 9/30/2025: Trump has support of about 90% of registered Republicans...consistent and unchanged in the summer.

The puzzle: Why does Trump continue to consolidate and energize his base instead of reaching out to add to his base? By using fear and favor and cheating, he can afford to ignore the popular vote. My guess is that he thinks that by lies, threatening with military suppression, overt racism, anti migrant mass deportation, and suppression, and limiting the ability of targeted opposition demographic groups to vote, using methods to federalize elections, and above all, political gerrymandering, he can tip the vote to him. If so he does not have to worry about the 55-plus who would turn up on election day to comprise the popular vote.

What's the answer for Democrats? How can they appeal to the 10% to 15 squish and solidify the vote for them? Exactly as Trump won in 2024:  It's the economy, stupid...the cost of living. .. groceries, housing. For that reason, one of the greatest factors in the cost of living of the struggling middle class is the cost of health insurance and the affordability of health care in general.  It tops the concerns list. Clever GOP. Cuts to Medicaid and Medicare will take place after the 2026 midterms, so the task of the Democrats is to make the warning stick that what is coming is bad and the GOP is to be blamed. For the sceptics, warnings that healthcare costs will rise is only part of the message. For many, only actually feeling the pain counts; warnings are political noise. That is the reason the government shutdown is over health care costs this week: it is a way to dramatize and pin the issue on the GOP for what is coming later, as warnings.   However, the actual experience of the pain will begin within a month or two as many get the actual figures of their health insurance in December and January when the cost of Obamacare/ACA will increase by painful and large percentages.  This is not a question of warning of 2027, but immediately the pain will be felt in 2025 and 2026. in time for the midterms.. The GOP big beautiful bill dropped all federal subsidies to the ACA, and the projections that steps must be taken now for providers to be ready by 2027, so that even then, the pain will be felt by providers like rural health have to cut back in 2026..

MUFTIC FORUM BLOG: Are we there yet? Yes. America is no longer a democracy, the land of the free

From an August 1, 2025, Facebook posting, my opinion of how much of the MAGA base is motivated by racism.  Strictly, my opinion. For some time, I have suspected that the Trump regime's mass deportation policies and executive orders were motivated by racism and discrimination against those with roots from south of our border or brown people from elsewhere, I have also suspected that after you peel back all of the reasons MAGA supporters use to justify their support of Trump, economy, business interests, religious beliefs, and despite Trump and friends' immorality and greed, there is a large element of the issue left that is migrant deportation. Everything else but mass deportation seems irrelevant to them. A district court judge just called out Trump's attempt to end all temporary protective visas for migrant refugees fleeing violence, persecution, or natural disasters, racist and discriminatory, and put a temporary hold on the execution of the removal of those holding such visas. The purpose of the special visas was to give refugee status until the conditions in their home from which they fled had improved. The judge found that the condition of their home countries of the plaintiffs had not improved. The evidence of racial discrimination was the words of the Trump regime's administrators themselves. No doubt this will go through the appeal process to end up in the lap of "his" Supreme Court, but the damning language from the judge needs to be cited. For those who protest this ruling, first look in your own mirror. (as of October 2025, the Supreme Court usually sides with the Trump administration on similar issues, but lower courts keep ruling otherwise on temporary protective visas. The issue is still in flux.)

My observations: October 1, 2025: The president calling for active or national guard military and ordering them to Chicago and Portland, where local and state officials object, is a sheer bullhorn appeal to the racists. It is not to fight crime or chaos or cities are burning, when current videos put a lie to that, particularly when crime statistics show 20 to 25% decreases per capita recently, but it will appeal to the bigotry in the MAGA base and to fool them to thinking this is reality, when it is not. Deployment of military to do domestic policing is not only not their training skills in this, they have none, but it seems an obvious violation of the Posse Comitatus provisions in the Constitution and laws of the land that only exempt such measures if there is an insurrection. There may be crime, but it is not an insurrection. A lower court on the use of the military in Los Angeles so ruled. Judge rules Trump illegally deployed National Guard and Marines to Los Angeles

From: Judge halts Trump's termination of TPS for Honduras, Nepal, Nicaragua https://www.msn.com/.../judge-halts-trumps.../ar-AA1JHjR7...

"By stereotyping the TPS program and immigrants as invaders that are criminal, and by highlighting the need for migration management, Secretary Noem's statements perpetuate the discriminatory belief that certain immigrant populations will replace the white population."

Thompson also mentioned comments from Trump and other White House officials about migrants that show racial animus."

msn.com

Donald Trump suffers major legal blow over migrant protections

The decision extends protections for more than 60,000 people from co

John Boehner's and the Pope's Balancing Acts: Boehner's act fails; the Pope succeeds

Circus balancing acts nearly always succeed. It they do not, performers do not stay long in the business.  Politics is another story. Last week saw balance take a back seat to extreme views when House Majority Leader John Boehner threw in the towel, foreseeing a collision with a forty  member Tea Party caucus wanting to hold hostage the functioning of government to a single issue.  Pope Francis with great delicacy delivered messages in person to the American people and Catholics in a way that would make a tight rope walker proud.

In past eras, the middle, the balance between poles, was once the substance of the business of governing.  It is rare now when balance works and often imbalance is cheered by partisans holding less than a majority vote when they roll over their opposition without having themselves to budge an inch or take a political penalty at the ballot box.

Boehner quit, he said, to save the institution of Congress. He probably meant that Congress was structured to force compromise. I suspect another reason was that he wanted to come to the aid of the Republican Party.  Most right wing Tea Party members of his GOP Congressional caucus were protected from political repercussions by representing safe districts with constituents who agreed with them. The Tea Party had failed to get their way on defunding Planned Parenthood when the House votes were counted.  Never mind federal laws already prevented federal funds from being used for abortions. They cared little if their actions would deprive the service of any federal dollars to provide other low cost women’s health services.  They threatened to block approval of the entire federal budget, resulting in shutdown of government services.

Boehner had been there, done that. In 2013, the GOP dominated House engineered an actual shutdown for two weeks over a single issue, defunding Obamacare.    The result: The economy took a $12 to $24 billion hit. The GOP got the blame in spite of their attempt to cast blame on a stubborn President.  Polls showed Americans believed the GOP was responsible over Democrats 39 percent to 19 percent.

In order for Boehner to stop this government shutdown, he would have had to draw on Democratic votes, an anathema to Republican extremists.  They had attacked Boehner in the past for relying on the enemy and Boehner was facing some very contentious moments if he did it again. Clearly he was just tired of it and he, humming “ Zip-a-dee-doo dah”, quit.

On the other hand, Pope Francis was last week’s balancer in chief, giving pronouncements on his visit to the US about what he considered to be the moral course on critical governmental issues, some of which warmed the hearts of conservatives with his family focus, and cheered liberals with issues such as caring about income inequality, humane treatment of immigrants and refugees, caring for the poor, and global warming.   While he did not propose legislative directives of “thou shall or shalt not” to Congress, he urged compromise and dissed extremism. Nonetheless, he made his points without adding to the political polarization he so deplored. Perhaps the Pope inspired devout Catholic  Boehner to turn his disgust with extremists into the action he took. 

The edited version appeard in the Oct 1, 2   2015 Sky Hi Daily News www.skyhidailynews.com

 http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/congress-approval-rating-government-shutdown-098657#ixzz3n2M1Juop