The GOP, a party of "loonies and liars"? Slogan making in 2022

Update May 5, 2022:  Attaboy, Biden.  Calling MAGA extremist: Biden condemns efforts of extremist ‘Maga crowd’ to overturn Roe v Wade abortion protections – as it happened | US politics | The Guardian    CA Governor Newsom fleshes out the attack calling the GOP to pro-birth party, but fails to support children and families after birth. Gov. Newsom Lashes Out at Draft Abortion Ruling, Assails `Pro-Birth' Politicians - MyNewsLA.com

Update 5/11/22: Added to "loonies and liars",  and" lackeys"    There is a category of those who wilfully  believe as the truth whatever Donald Trump says for reasons of craven political gain regardless of prior stated beliefs.  They are neither loonies nor liars...just political opportunists who do what it takes to keep or gain political power by bowing to the most powerful who will back them.  .   

Updated  May 2,2022 and revised from an April 9 post. What will make a difference in the 2022 midterms?  Slogans have a role in messaging. They put long lists into a context and can be used in both attacks and defense:  In 2022, they can be both national and locally applied. Some possibilities: the GOP is a" just to say no to fixes to family financial struggles", or a MAGA candidate can be tagged in a swing district as "just too extreme for us", or on Ukraine and democracy, and big pharma the question put to certain candidates becomes "on whose side are you on anyway?" 

Continuing with April 9  and 24 postings:

 Here is how the races could be shaping up as seen in April 2022. and  a possible winning overarching themes and slogans for Democrats which puts their contrast with GOP candidates in context. . Going on the attack  instead of just playing defense is an old bit of wisdom: The best defense is a great offense. Calling out the GOP as the party of "just say no" to helping families with day-to-day finances or tagging Qnuts and MAGA  cult members as too extreme for the district are attack slogans that could be fortified with national messaging at the same time. After two years of trying, evidence of the steal has yet to be found and those who keep on spouting the fantasy are either lying or deaf, dumb and blind. We have witnessed the gut reaction of those immediately post January 6, especially from Kevin McCarthy even consider asking Trump to retire in taped conversations, and to reverse themselves when they realize Trump is still the power to which they must bow. The best I heard recently is to call the party a party dominated by "loonies and liars". Another is "The 2022 battle cry needs to be, "A vote for House Republicans, is a vote to destroy democracy."  Both of these attack slogans are credited to Tom Rogers,  of NEWSWEEK, and formr Colorado Senator Tim Wirth.  Attacks like these need to be direct, simple, and pointed and they should not leave voters having to listen to long lists just to extract and deduce the point being made.  .These slogans then should be followed up with what the Democrats have done for your family or national security as a contrast in context of the slogan and the details of why they think so.. How effective these slogans will be depends  how skillfully  it is applied to the more district, state, and local races given the opponents' records on these issues...  With MAGA and Trump still in control of primary elections, it is probable that GOP candidates will be chosen because of their loyalty to Trumpism.  That is an opportunity for Democrats in the general election to appeal to moderates and fence sitters in swing districts. .   All politics in 2022 is local and campaigns need to be tailored to each Congressional district though national themes and slogans can back up local campaigns and put them in context.

The focus in swing districts should be on reaching swing voters.A good way to look at this is which states flipped from voting for Donald Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in 2020 and now have competitive congressional races in 2022? Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia flipped to Biden."   That same analysis can be applied to identifying  swing  House districts  there and elsewhere. Cultural issues, racism expressed now in CRT school and parental control battles, fear of brown people invading us from our borders, religious fervor against gays and trans, and anti-choice, will be the currents against which Democrats will be swimming. These issues have no impact on what bugs most voters: the economy. Those are value and belief issues that are not debatable  , but could be attacked as too extreme to the particular district, local and state races.

Dealing with the lingering "stop the steal" candidates, there is a  local Colorado race that  has national implications and interest regarding voter integrity. The GOP talks a game about voter integrity, but they want to rig it to be able to support the candidates they favor. Voter integrity as they define it only applies to them, enabling them to wreck the ability to provide safeguards for everyone and to trample the laws in place to protect ballots for all. Colorado, a candidate for Secretary of State,  Tina Peters, is  a county clerk indicted for criminal violation of duty to secure 2020 ballots as proscribed by law. She is a perfect candidate to hold up as a poster child of a QNUT  dominated political party and she just got the support in her party's state assembly, as did other "stop the steal" candidates for state wide office and Senate.. Her defense  against the criminal charge is being funded by My Pillow Guy.  Given the blue tint of the state, the state GOP is vulnerable to be branded as too extreme, just as their candidates for other state and district offices  are.

McCarthy scrambles to contain fallout from tape on Trump and Jan. 6 (usatoday.com)

McCarthy scrambles to contain fallout from tape on Trump and Jan. 6 (usatoday.com)

 GOP secretary of state candidate endorses Tina Peters, jumps to El Paso County commissioner primary | 2022 Election | coloradopolitics.com   

  Mike Lindell says he gave up to $800K to Tina Peters' defense | 9news.com  

   Here is everything that’s happened with Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters (coloradosun.com)  

    Littwin: The Big Lie is the big winner at the Colorado GOP assembly (coloradosun.com)   

The Card a Republican House Can Play That Turns Us Into a House of Cards | Opinion (msn.com)

All three GOP House members from Colorado voted against the infrastructure bill. The four Democrats voted in favor.  Colorado's Democratic delegation cheers passage of infrastructure bill amid GOP scowls | Colorado In DC | coloradopolitics.com

Sober up, Democrats, or say goodbye to your dreams.

Updated 7/15/19

Sober up, Dems. I'll be putting my money in this presidential race on a  candidate with appeal in the key electoral states Democrats need to win or liberals can say goodbye to their dreams. What is becoming clear is that the Democrat's winning nominee must appeal to both blue-collar midwest and high African American turn out or Donald Trump will get his second term. What is at stake for Democrats and possible swing voters are policies fundamental to Democrats and independents. Should Trump gain a second term, it is bye, bye Roe v Wade as the Supreme Court gets more anti-Rove v Wade justices. A Trump second term would place in control more energy lobbyists and executives sabotaging climate change green goals., White nationalism would continue undermining meaningful protection of civil and minority voters rights. It means a veto pen in the White House sinking health care insurance, any expansion, more sabotage, if not completely ending any federal program like Obamacare. Trump's record is to kill affordable health care for millions of citizens and neither he nor the GOP has any feasible plan for a replacement. Democrats can quibble over totally replacing Obamacare with Medicare for All or making Medicare a public option and in debates lose any chance at either being implemented if they lose the electoral college vote.

The horse race White House winner is not determined by who gets the most popular votes. If we learned anything from 2016, Democrats won that race but they lost because of the electoral college that weights votes by each state in favor of smaller populated states and against mammoth blue New York and California. So far, the start of this presidential election cycle shows some hope for Democrats to win both the popular vote horse race and the electoral college vote. but it is not only early,  it is also marginal and iffy. In any recent popularity polls, Donald Trump has held onto his base of 42 to 44% losing to several leading Democratic contenders, but he has not expanded it, even with his job approval at 45 to 47%. Recent polls of demographic blocks, issues such as health care and immigration, swing states, and relative position of Democratic aspirants for their party's nomination provide a snapshot of where the race stands today, but as we have seen in these days of modern communication. much can happen quickly to change public opinion.

Early in the election cycle Joe Biden has shown the ability to appeal to win both key demographics and flip some states from red to blue, yet some of Democrats barking at his heels in the announced field have tried to take him down. Democrats should be wary of a circular firing squad of candidates attacking fellow aspirants to boost their own chances. Those lines of attacks could be used by the GOP to defeat them in a general election.

From a July 8 Washington Post email : The economy is the only major issue on which a majority of people approves of how Trump is doing. On foreign policy, it’s 40 percent. On taxes — remember, Republicans passed a tax bill in 2017 to try to get good marks here — it’s 42 percent. On health care — a potent issue Democrats championed to help them win back the House of Representatives last year — it’s 38 percent.

Voters would choose Trump over a socialist

Match-ups between Trump and most 2020 candidates are dead even (except for former vice president Joe Biden, who beats Trump by 10 points among registered voters in this poll). But the pendulum swings clearly toward Trump when voters are asked to choose between Trump and a “socialist." Trump is suddenly decisively ahead.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Where the race stands now

In June, some polls show Biden beating Trump is key states Trump carried in 2016, including Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan, as well as Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. A major portion of the Democratic party is the African American vote. Their turnout and enthusiasm are key to determining who becomes the Democratic candidate.

After the first debate, Kamala Harris attacked Biden on not being favorable enough of busing a decades ago as a way to try to paint him as a person not supportive of the Black community. This worked to her advantage and Biden was caught off guard and fumbled the answer. He took a hit in his polls but maintained his lead and support in the African American community.

As of July 13, Biden maintained a 20 point lead among African American voters in spite of Harris' strategy. Biden's 40 years in high profile public office is less a bane and more of a boon when it comes to appealing to the Black community. Not only does he have a record of defending civil rights on many more issues, but he also served as vice president with Barack Obama, America's first African American president, who trusted him explicitly. He is a known quantity which makes Harris' attacks less effective. Biden's track record is a safe one based on years of trust. Harris, African American/Asian, has been under fire for past support of law enforcement issues opposed by African Americans when she was attorney general of California. Her debate strategy of attacking Biden on busing was a breakout moment for her, showing her political acumen and her debate skills that could take on Trump, moving her up the polling ladder.

Trump and the GOP are banking on the white nationalist elements of their base. To solidify that support, they are launching extreme anti-immigrant and anti-minority policies, hyping fears of a large swath of voters, facing a future where whites will be a minority of voters. This month, Trump announced policies and actions to maintain his hate and fear bonafides, including ICE raids, Vice President Pence visited scary looking male migrants crammed into chain linked holding pens being treated badly. Pence did not visit the facilities housing children separated from parents. Trump announced he is planning to remove the ability of asylum seekers to reach US borders. by forcing them to remain in Mexico. He failed in his attempt to get a citizenship question on the 2020 census form as the SupremeCourt ruled against him, but his effort should at least keep his base happy. Trump media is attempting to paint four women Representatives of color who are outspokenly left of the rest of the Democratic caucus, as representative of all Democratic candidates, sending them "back" to where they came from. , The GOP is also attempting to brand all Democrats as being for open borders in spite of a difference among candidates on the issue of criminalization or decriminalization of undocumented migrants. or plans to secure and improve the immigration system. This may work for Trump, but Biden's 40-year history makes that a hard sell as an older white man with a known history and a reservoir of trust as a rational, thoughtful, public servant.

On health care, Biden has carved out the most moderate approach of the top four, whose position was announced July 13 as keeping Obamacare but providing a buy-in to Medicare, while permitting those who like their private, union, or employer-provided insurance to keep it. Advocates of the more extreme version of Medicare for All would do away with private insurance (except for supplementals) and move consumers into a single payer plan. The GOP's obvious strategy is to scare consumers away from any Democratic by charging them as socialists. Polls show that tagging any candidate as a socialist is a very effective strategy, with Trump beating any candidate branded with that term, fair or not. The tag of "socialism" is especially toxic to Democrats in swing states per an Axios poll. Biden's 40-year record makes sticking him with "socialist" a hard sell.

Obamacare was originally designed to have a public option, government-provided insurance plans like Medicare or one offered to federal employees, to provide competition that would force private insurers to become cheaper. Biden's plan for prescription drugs would be to permit Medicare to bargain with drug companies for the best price. Currently, drug companies and Medicare and Medicaid are forbidden by law to bargain, permitting drug companies to continue to gouge consumers with their own price setting. Biden would also allow consumers to get their prescriptions from providers abroad, giving US drug companies competition they do not have now. Both Sanders and Warren would eliminate private and employer insurance for a Medicare for All plan for everyone, a single payer system more like the Canadian model. Harris has supported legislation of both approaches, the public option, and the Sanders/Warren approach..

From a July 8 Washington Post email : The economy is the only major issue on which a majority of people approves of how Trump is doing. On foreign policy, it’s 40 percent. On taxes — remember, Republicans passed a tax bill in 2017 to try to get good marks here — it’s 42 percent. On health care — a potent issue Democrats championed to help them win back the House of Representatives last year — it’s 38 percent.

Voters would choose Trump over a socialist

Match-ups between Trump and most 2020 candidates are dead even (except for former vice president Joe Biden, who beats Trump by 10 points among registered voters in this poll). But the pendulum swings clearly toward Trump when voters are asked to choose between Trump and a “socialist." Trump is suddenly decisively ahead.

 https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/13/politics/joe-biden-leads-with-black-voters-analysis/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/trump-trails-biden-warren-sanders-new-nbc-news-wall-street-n1029646

https://www.axios.com/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-poll-democrats-2020-aeaa3771-f142-4059-b79e-1fed569dfdf9.html

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/451263-nixing-private-insurance-divides-medicare-for-all-candidates

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/15/biden-unveils-health-care-plan-to-expand-obamacare-hits-medicare-for-all.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/15/donald-trump-says-house-democrats-he-insulted-should-apologize/1732314001/?csp=chromepush

POLITICO.COM

Biden invokes Obama to defend his civil rights record

The former vice president delivered a fiery response after Kamala Harris 
attacked his past stance on busing.

Democratic Party is on the verge of blowing it

As a variety of candidates take aim at front runner Joe Biden in order to increase their poll numbers by beating down Biden,  it is the usual Democratic party political stupidity. So like in 2016 the party splits, the losers sit on their hands, and Trump wins. Liberals and Progressives:  How did you like the way that worked out? Then what happens in 2020 and beyond to any form of Medicare for all..as a single payer or as a public option...neither. Then what happens to any steps to deal with global warming...nothing. Then what happens to the Supreme Court? For years to come, expect a Trump court ruling in favor of abolishing Roe v Wade, supporting an imperial presidency, and even declaring any federal health plan, including Obamacare unconstitutional. I hope many will join me in this pledge: I will refuse to support any candidate who speaks ill of another Democrat in the race. 
Candidates need to make a case for their platform on issues and let their issue arguments and credentials speak for themselves as a way to differentiate themselves from the rest of the pack. Negative campaigns in primaries are losers for Democrats. They are a circular firing squad.

Recently, some press and candidates are aiming their weapons at the front runner Joe Biden for a history of not being in favor of pro-choice. He has evolved on the issue. In 2008 he announced he was pro-choice. A devout Catholic, he paid a price when the Archbishop of the diocese in Pennsylvania refused to give him communion.  Since 2008  Biden has had a NARAL rating of 100%. He supports Supreme Court appointees who support Roe v Wade. He had supported the Hyde Amendment that bans federal funds for abortions. June 6, he reversed his prior support, citing that formerly free services provided by Plan Parenthood clinics have been so restricted in certain states, that the poor no longer had access. ,  Other attacks have centered on his past hard-line support on law enforcement and other issues. Unlike many of his fellow aspirants,  he has baggage for being a public figure for 40 years at different times,, but what should count is where he stands now on issues and his more recent track record.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Joe_Biden#Abortion,_stem_cell_research,_cloning

Not only do politicians going negative on others competing for their party's nomination create sound bites for GOP general election campaign ads and video clips, but it can also divert or suppress votes to hurt the Democratic party candidate.  One fallout of a split party going for the throats of fellow candidates in order to gain a political advantage is that it generates "; a plague on both your houses; I don't like either candidates"  disgust factor. Bernie Sanders famously proclaimed on CNN during the run-up to the nomination that Clinton "was not qualified to be President" because she did not support the same issues as he did.   The result is for a group of voters to flee to a third party, Greens and Libertarians or sat on their hands.  There is a case to be made that votes for third parties swung the election to Trump by splitting the potential Clinton vote in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida and costing her electoral college votes.

 Democrats cannot afford to have potential voters sit on their hands in 2020. A recent PEW study of 2016 demographics and attitudes concluded "The data also provide a profile of voting-eligible nonvoters. Four-in-ten Americans who were eligible to vote did not do so in 2016.  "Compared with validated voters,...and nonvoters were much more Democratic." 

 The Russians were very well aware of the importance of the disgust factor and aimed their very significant social media propaganda efforts to paint Hilliary Clinton in a very unfavorable light, even to the extent of targeting bots and lies and conspiracy theories aimed at her potential voters. Some of that social media targeting was aimed at supporting the candidacy of  Green candidate Jill Stein and Bernie Sanders as a way of splitting Democratic votes.  We know this from both the Mueller Report and the indictments of spies and GRU operatives.  This was not a matter of a few well placed online ads, either. Both the indictments of Russians and the content of the Mueller report reveals the significant extent and effectiveness of the Russian interference. 

We have marveled at Russian's sophisticated knowledge of their targeting in key swing states and their knowledge of demographics.  The secret of their sophistication may have been revealed in the Mueller Report as Trump in house polling data was share with the Russians by Paul Manafort's contacts with his business associate, Konstantin Kilimnik, a suspected Russian intelligence operative, but so much of that connection has been  redacted in the Mueller Report version released to the public.  That is why it is important that Congress gets the full unredacted version. 

http://fortune.com/2018/08/09/nonvoters-trump-presidency-pew-study/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Joe_Biden#Abortion,_stem_cell_research,_cloning

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/05/us/politics/biden-hyde-amendment.html

https://www.people-press.org/2018/08/09/for-most-trump-voters-very-warm-feelings-for-him-endured/#in-march-2018-modest-gender-gap-in-views-of-trump-among-supporters

https://www.cnn.com/2016/04/06/politics/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-qualified/index.html

"Trump won 290 Electoral College votes to 232 for Hillary Clinton, as of Wednesday evening, with Clinton topping him in the popular vote. But had the Democrats managed to capture the bulk of third-party voters in some of the closest contests -- Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16) and Florida (29) -- Clinton would have defeated Trump by earning 307 Electoral College votes, enough to secure the presidency." https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/10/politics/gary-johnson-jill-stein-spoiler/index.html