July 15 update: The discussion topic about changing horses in the middle of the race is now on ice due to the near-assassination attempt on Trump. By the time the RNC convention is over, it will be even closer to the middle of the race, where campaign organization, funding, and delegates are already in place and will be seriously disrupted, too late to reorient to a different candidate. Internal polling will have been digested, and Biden will have had even more opportunities to demonstrate his mental acuity, putting "concerns" on ice also, as he has done post-debate and as he "gets his Irish up".
If turning down the heated rhetoric, fascism, and other trigger words are avoided, it is easier than ever to make the points of what Trump's 2nd term would bring that would be a danger to ordinary Americans and make America weaker, not greater. Trump's personal toughness only reveals better judgment or change in his caring about others other than himself or the middle class. Running against Project 2025 and the RNC platform related to it gives that chance. Trump will be put in a bind distancing himself on issues in risking ticking off the base who support the contents of either. Trump cannot get away with distancing itself from such very unpopular positions.
July 12 update: I am listening to comments about Biden, his impressive performance at the NATO presser, and his mental acuity. One of the strangest was, well, he showed great acuity when he talked about foreign policy but not when he talked about his own health. Come on....either he has sufficient acuity in his brain, or he doesn't. There may be other matters at work here...like he is getting attacked because of his age. How does acuity disappear or appear, given the topic???????
It appears that the political professionals look at their polls and get cold feet. Past polls show no Democrat can beat Trump, including Harris, and Biden has historically low approval rates. Sure, he does; if you ask, he is too old, and that has been consistent for the last 3 years as, yes, while Biden guided us for the best recovery from COVID in the world. If you ask if given the choice between Trump and him nationally in public polls (very unreliable), the answer is different: a tie. His approval ratings may be historically low, but his opponent is historically a fright, called by those close to him when he was president unfit for the job, determined to upend democracy and establish a dictatorship/(kindliy called an autocracy,0 with Trump at the top and a supreme court already in his pocket greenlighting criminal acts. The GOP anointed candidate is threatening to upend very popular government policies such as saving Ukraine and NATO while making his Project 2025 administration the 'culture of life", replacing civil service with a corrupt and incompetent spoils system full of political hacks, and ending any programs that benefit even their own constituents like, Medicaid and further destroying rural health providers whose funding has been saved by getting paid for their services via Medicaid. I live in a rural area, and I get it. If Democrats can get heads out of their behinds, maybe others in the MAGA rural world could get that message, too.
My thoughts about the political pros who said, well, Trump will attack him for being feeble are In these past two weeks, all that has happened is that Trump has been given the gift of sound bites uttered by fearful once-Biden supporters. It is as if the press and those wanting the torch to be passed are laying the groundwork for self-fulfilling their own prophecy. The ultimate key to Biden's decision is as he said it: no path to victory, even as Harris would do worse. The final decider will be internal polls of 3 battleground states and Biden's own interpretation of them.
The past two weeks after the awful debate have been nothing about that, so Biden should remove himself. This reminds me of the FDR phrase, but in the reverse of their cold feet, it is: you are fearing your fear itself. What if internal polls (more accurate) show even Harris cannot beat Trump? In fact, the whole nature of the Trump campaign will turn this into the most racist white nationalist/misogynist campaign in history, fearing Harris' credentials as the point person on women's rights, Trump's Achilles heel. In short, if Biden defers to Harris as the candidate, the entire focus of the rest of the presidential campaign will be different. It is still a crap shoot, a gamble,., but a different game with a new deck of cards dealt.
July 11 We need to get this settled ASAP/ So far, all we have done has made it harder for Biden to win, giving Trump et al. sound bites ad infitim. Of all the nerve: after engineering the flubbed and awful reporting and opinion pages demanding Biden step down, the New York Times dares write the opinion piece today that Trump is unfit to be president. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/11/trump-new-york-times-00167529 ThNYT: Trump unfit to lead after they just gave Trump a boost to his campaign. Let's get this matter settled now, but what is happening is that everyone is looking at internal polling (these public polls are all over the place). They often ask the wrong questions anyway. Four different questions get four different answers:
1), is Biden too old? That one in any poll is "yes".
The question #2 is: Given what you know now, which would you vote for: Biden or Trump. Still, a tie, unchanged, in national public opinion polls, but the real polls that count are in 3 battleground states. Voters had already "discounted" Biden's age.
#3 The third question is whether Kamala Harris's poll would be better in question number 2 than Biden's. So far, I haven't heard anything. Notice that the Black Caucus voted to support Biden over anyone else, including Harris. Maybe they know something the rest of us do not. Above all, they are realists.
#4. What if Biden fails to complete the term? Who cares if Trump wins. My answer:If Biden wins, the team with Harris at the top is more than capable of continuing on.
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